Summary of the fourth quarter of 2020
The PX market rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 2020. As of December 24, the price of PX closed at US$619/ton CFR China, an increase of US$97.67/ton from September 30, an increase of 18.73%.
(1) Cost side: Benefit from vaccine development With new progress, oil prices have increased significantly. As of December 24, Brent crude oil closed at US$51.29/barrel, an increase of US$10.34/barrel from September 30, an increase of 25.25%. Olefin cracking is highly profitable, and steam cracking is highly profitable. Against the background of the start of construction, the naphtha market is operating strongly. As of December 24, naphtha closed at US$472.5/ton CFR Japan, an increase of US$85/ton from September 30, an increase of 21.94%. As of December 24 , PX-naphtha closed at US$146.5/ton, up US$12.67/ton from September 30, an increase of 9.47%.
(2) Supply side: China’s PX production in the fourth quarter was 5.309 million tons. , an increase of 193,000 tons or 3.77% from the third quarter. Asia’s PX output was 11.7172 million tons, an increase of 221,400 tons or 1.93% from the third quarter. Equipment changes, China; Lidong resumed operation after one month of maintenance in early August. In mid-September, Shandong Dongying Weilian Chemical was put into operation, and at the end of the month, Hainan Phase II was released. In mid-October, Liaoyang Petrochemical’s main line was overhauled for about 5 days. In October, Jinling Petrochemical was reorganized and overhauled, and PX was operated with reduced load. In November, Urumqi Petrochemical reduced load. CICC Petrochemical will undergo maintenance at the end of the month, and Fuhai Chuang’s equipment will undergo maintenance on December 17. In the second half of the month, Liaoyang Petrochemical’s small line PX will restart to increase production.
(3) Demand side: The fourth quarter is the peak season for the polyester market. Polyester orders are booming during the National Day period, which has a certain impact on the PTA market. In addition, the second phase of Xinfengming’s plant was put into operation as scheduled, and the PTA output in the fourth quarter was A substantial increase, PTA output is expected to be 13.17 million tons in the fourth quarter, an increase of 514,400 tons or 4.06% from the third quarter.
(4) Supply and demand analysis: Assuming that PX import volume in November and December is 1.15 million tons, 18,000 tons of PX will be destocked in the fourth quarter.
Forecast for the first quarter of 2021
(1) From a cost perspective, the positive progress of vaccines and Brexit will have a certain boost to oil prices , oil prices have strong bottom support.
(2) Supply side: Looking at PX production in the first quarter, Sinochem Petrochemical and Fuhai Chuang were undergoing maintenance in January, but Sinochem’s Quanzhou plant began to produce a small amount of products, with PX production at 1.72 million tons. February is a small month, with Sinochem Quanzhou PX mass production, Fuhai Chuang and CICC resuming production, with an estimated PX output of 1.727 million tons. March is a big month, with expected output at 1.912 million tons. Therefore, the overall output of PX in the first quarter is expected to be 5.359 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, and the overall change will not be significant.
(3) Demand side: Looking at January 2021, Fuhai Chuang will enter maintenance in December, while Jiangyin Hanbang Line and Sanfangxiang may have maintenance plans in January, while Fujian Baihong The device may be put into production near the middle of the month. Overall, the increase in supply during the month will be limited. Judging from February 2021, Yisheng Ningbo may have maintenance expected. The maintenance of other devices is still unclear, but the supply is still at a certain high level. From the perspective of March 2021, the maintenance of the PTA device is still unclear. Hainan Yisheng’s maintenance plan is temporarily estimated, and Honggang Petrochemical Line 2 is expected to be put into operation. Therefore, the supply of PTA remains high. New production lines are put into operation intensively, and PX is expected to continue destocking. Overall, cost support and supply and demand are improving, and it is expected that the absolute price of PX and PXN will have an upward trend. </p
