A few days ago, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first cold wave warning since the second half of 2020. After the warning was issued, a cold wave began to gradually freeze through our country from north to south. ——Snowflakes are flying in many places in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The temperature in many places in southern China has dropped to new lows since the second half of this year. There are even “winter days” with average temperatures below 10 degrees in many places. After this cold wave, winter in southern my country has The scope is still expanding.
The super cold wave caused the temperature to drop sharply. For the clothing and textile industry, which depends on the weather, the super cold wave is like a wave of benefits for textile workers. Recently, the gray fabric market has seen a rebound with an increase in orders.
The weaving start-up remains high at the end of the year, and there is not a strong intention to reduce production unless the policy affects it
After entering mid-December, the atmosphere of market goods hoarding has heated up again. At present, it is learned from the dyeing factory that a lot of market goods have been warehoused recently. Large orders of hundreds of thousands of meters and millions of meters that disappeared in the early stage have reappeared, and transactions have been completed. Orders mostly focused on stretch fabrics, pongee, polyester taffeta and other fabrics used in autumn and winter are still performing well.
From the demand side, this market outbreak is not sudden, and is also in line with the market development pattern in previous years. On the one hand, domestic and foreign customers want to avoid the traditional Spring Festival During the holidays, orders will be placed 1.5-2 months in advance. This year, due to the combined impact of the epidemic and market conditions, the market has entered the Spring Festival vacuum period earlier than in previous years, which has also prompted this wave of orders to be placed intensively. Downstream traders and garment factories have purchased Phenomenon.
At the same time, both light and thin fabric manufacturers and medium and thick fabric manufacturers currently have a certain amount of inventory. However, judging from recent surveys, most Most companies are still operating at full capacity. For textile enterprises, the recent market order situation is better than in the previous period. Enterprises that make orders have more or less orders on hand, so they are working at full capacity to deliver goods before the year; in addition, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places are due to power cuts and Sudden shutdown policies caused by environmental protection and other issues have also been fermented recently, which puts great pressure on textile workers who are rushing to buy goods at the end of the year. In the short term, it will increase production pressure and delay delivery.
Even companies with poor performance in orders on hand are taking advantage of the relatively low price of raw materials this year and the longer storage time of chemical fiber fabrics. Therefore, as long as the funds can In the past, the intention to reduce production was not strong.
The industrial chain has entered the restocking and stocking stage before the Spring Festival, and downstream companies are still enthusiastic about buying low-priced raw materials
At the same time, the industrial chain has recently entered the stage of restocking and stocking up before the Spring Festival. Traders and textile mills are rushing to purchase raw materials, while weaving factories and middlemen in various textile cities are rushing to purchase cotton yarn and gray fabrics. From the perspective of the polyester market, since a wave of centralized purchasing began in late November, small peaks in production and sales have occurred intermittently on weekends and at the end of the month. Although the intensity of the recent purchasing boom has been lower than before, the inventory of polyester factories has been digested in this wave of production and sales climax. The recent mainstream inventory of polyester filament POY and FDY has been 11-18 days, which is higher than the previous period. Inventories have fallen, with some companies’ inventories being as low as 1-4 days, and in some cases as high as 22-27 days. Therefore, polyester factories currently do not have much inventory pressure and have a strong willingness to raise prices.
In addition, from the perspective of the yarn market, the current operating rate of large and medium-sized spinning mills is relatively high, with more than 90% in coastal areas such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Orders will be placed in the first half of January It is relatively full, especially the production and sales of carded and combed yarns of 50S and above are active. Although the shipment of OE yarn has not started obviously, the yarn mills have achieved flat production and sales or low-profit production.
Take POY150/48 as an example. Its average price reached 7,000 yuan in the same period last year, but it is still hovering below 6,000 yuan now. Although prices have risen again, the overall price is still relatively low. Therefore, from a business perspective, the absolute low price will increase everyone’s confidence in stocking up, and will also stimulate everyone’s enthusiasm for bargain hunting. Bosses who are willing to prepare goods at this time believe that with the arrival of the peak season, there is always room for appreciation in the current stocking, or there is a high probability that the value will increase. However, if the order comes late, the waiting time will be longer. torment.
In summary, polyester prices are currently recovering steadily. According to the current polyester load and inventory levels, the pattern of polyester raw materials will remain strong. . The progress of accumulated inventory will continue to be pushed back. Now the raw materials are in a strong spot situation. The only concern of the market is still when the demand side will regain its strength.
In addition, some risk events also deserve everyone’s attention.
First, there are concerns that the epidemic in Europe and the United States will continue to get out of control in the first quarter of 2021. According to trading companies in Shanghai and Zhejiang, affected by the recent “lockdown” in some European countries and Japan, some textile and clothing orders signed in October and November have encountered execution difficulties, and with the emergence of the new coronavirus in the United Kingdom, South Africa and other countries, Due to the impact of mutations (increased infectiousness by 40%-70%) and insufficient vaccine production capacity, market sentiment continues to rise;
Second, sea freight rates in November and December The skyrocketing price makes it difficult to find a container. In addition, China’s exports of electronic products, auto parts, small commodities, etc. have rebounded strongly, and export costs have increased rapidly. This puts great pressure on textile and clothing companies that rely on “small profits and rely on quantity” to win;
The third is to consider the future of 2021��The Federal Reserve’s “unlimited” easing has increased the pressure for RMB appreciation. Textile and clothing companies are worried that the limited profits from long-term and large orders will once again be swallowed up by sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate;
Fourth, judging from the external market, domestic industrial chain, and futures internal and external market trends, raw materials are “easy to rise but difficult to fall” in 2021. However, foreign buyers and retailers under the raging epidemic not only generally lower prices, but also have strict contract enforcement. From the perspective of later cost increases and contract risk reduction, companies are cautious in accepting long-term and large orders.
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