In 2020, the domestic polyester filament market as a whole showed a volatile and weak trend. Before and after the Spring Festival, there were fewer inquiries in the polyester filament market, the market lacked trading vitality, and most transactions were trading sideways.
As the COVID-19 epidemic spreads around the world, international crude oil plummets, raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol decline weakly, cost-end support collapses, the polyester filament market is in trouble, and prices continue to fall. Coupled with the sluggish demand from downstream weaving factories, factory shipments are blocked, inventories continue to grow, and the market price of polyester filament has fallen to historical lows.
After the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled, factories gradually resumed work and production, and downstream companies actively purchased under a bargain-hunting mentality. The center of gravity of the polyester filament market began to recover upwards. In the third quarter, the downstream terminal market was in the traditional consumption off-season, and the negative demand was transmitted upward. In order to relieve inventory pressure, some polyester filament factories launched production reduction and parking plans, and frequent preferential promotions. The market center of gravity fluctuated and fell, and polyester filament cash flow began to be in a state of loss. .
In October, the downstream terminal market has a strong recovery signal, and the trend of superimposed raw materials is relatively strong. The polyester filament market has been booming, with production and sales exceeding 100 for many days. Some factories are experiencing shortages and cash flow. It has also turned from a loss to a profit. However, as the growth rate of downstream orders slows down, the market price of polyester filament tends to fluctuate. As of December 29, the annual average price of the polyester filament market (POY) was 5,586 yuan/ton. Compared with last year’s average price of 7,930 yuan/ton, it fell 29.56% year-on-year. The highest price point was 7,250 yuan/ton on January 6. tons, the lowest point was 4,600 yuan/ton on April 2.
The polyester filament market was in trouble in the first quarter, and prices continued to fall
Before the Spring Festival, there were few downstream inquiries, the polyester filament market lacked trading vitality, and the market transaction center was moving sideways. After the Spring Festival, due to the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic control, most polyester filament factories have not resumed work, and there are no offers from the factories. Some downstream weaving factories have resumed work, and inquiries are cautious. No new orders have been heard in the market.
At the end of February, many sets of polyester yarn plants were heated up and restarted. However, the resumption of work of downstream weaving and other factories was relatively slow. The discounts for new orders on the market were continuously relaxed, and the center of market transactions fell steadily.
In March, as the COVID-19 epidemic spread around the world, international crude oil plummeted, resulting in a weak decline in the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets, and the collapse of cost support. However, mainstream polyester filament factories offered limited-time promotions For shipments, downstream purchases were made in small quantities at low prices. The production and sales volume of the polyester filament market was partially increased, and the market transaction center was stable and weakened.
Subsequently, international crude oil continued to fall, and the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets continued to decline. The cost aspect was negative. Polyester filament factory quotations continued to decrease, but downstream export orders decreased and domestic demand recovered. As a result, downstream enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is weak, polyester factory shipments are blocked, factory inventories continue to grow, and the market’s focus on transactions continues to fall.
At the end of March, cost support was acceptable, but the inventory pressure of polyester filament factories continued to grow. Under the pressure of shipments, factory quotations continued to decrease, with the range being around 300 yuan/ton. At the same time, the inventory of downstream gray fabrics is also growing. In addition, the number of new orders from downstream weaving factories is scarce. The production and sales of the polyester filament market are weak, and the market transaction focus has fallen to the bottom.
Polyester filament market shock repair in the second quarter
In early April, the raw material PTA was narrow and strong, and the cost support improved, and downstream raw materials were purchased in small quantities before the holiday. , market production and sales partially improved, and the market decline gradually slowed down. Before the Qingming Festival holiday, international crude oil surged, the focus of the polyester raw material market was strong, and the market price of polyester filament fell below the cost line. Therefore, the downstream mentality of bargain hunting was strong, and the production and sales of the polyester filament market increased. However, as polyester filament factories continue to raise their quotations, downstream investors are cautious in pursuing the increase, market production and sales have become sluggish, and the focus of market transactions has stabilized.
Subsequently, textile foreign trade orders fell off a cliff, resulting in a decrease in new orders from downstream weaving and texturing factories. Therefore, downstream procurement of raw materials was cautious, factory inventories continued to grow, and the focus of market transactions clearly shifted. fall.
In May, international crude oil rose sharply, and mainstream polyester filament factories actively pushed up prices. In addition, some downstream weaving and texturing factories ended their holidays, and factory inventories were smoothly transferred to downstream factories, and market transactions The investment atmosphere is good. With good support from both upstream and downstream, polyester filament factory quotations rose slightly, and market prices recovered moderately upward.
At the beginning of June, affected by the extension of the production reduction plan, the center of gravity of crude oil increased, boosting the polyester raw material market, thus driving the price of polyester filament to rise. Under the mentality of buying up, downstream buyers were more enthusiastic about purchasing. The production and sales of polyester filament yarns are acceptable, and the polyester filament yarn market is stable. As the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, polyester filament factories are offering discounts, but the promotion effect is average. Only POY production and sales are increasing. The focus of the polyester filament market began to decline, but downstream purchasing sentiment was not high, and polyester filament factory inventories continued to increase.
The fundamentals of polyester filament supply and demand in the third quarter are not optimistic, and the polyester filament market is running weak
July and August are the off-season for the polyester filament market , affected by inventory pressure, the focus of the polyester filament market has declined, and cash flow losses have intensified. Some polyester filament factories have launched plans to reduce production and stop production, and factories frequently offer discounts and promotions.�However, the promotional effect is average and the market trading atmosphere is light.
In mid-to-late August, downstream orders for autumn and winter fabrics increased partially, and the comprehensive weaving operation rate gradually rebounded. In addition, factories actively raised prices, and the focus of transactions in the polyester filament market increased. However, the total number of downstream orders The overall volume is not large, and it is difficult for the market mentality to improve.
Crude oil fell sharply on the night of September 9. Polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol followed the fluctuations of crude oil. Under weak cost support, the polyester filament market was stable with some declines. The market transaction atmosphere is light, and the downstream attitude of cautious wait-and-see is obvious.
In mid-September, the quotations of some polyester filament factories were still lowered, and the actual transactions were negotiated. Under the pressure of inventory, polyester filament factories had a limited-time promotion for one day, and downstream buyers purchased at low prices, and production and sales partially recovered. , after the promotion ended, the transaction volume of polyester filament yarns became sluggish, the market focus was weak, downstream purchasing power was insufficient, polyester yarn production and sales were difficult to balance, and inventory pressure increased.
Towards the end of the month, the raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol fluctuated at low levels, and there was no obvious positive support for costs. However, due to the loss of polyester cash flow, factories were more willing to raise prices, and major mainstream manufacturers actively raised their quotations. , guided by the buying mentality, downstream buyers are more enthusiastic about purchasing. In addition, as the National Day holiday is approaching, there is a certain demand for raw materials. The transactions in the polyester market are relatively active, and production and sales have increased.
Downstream demand improved in the fourth quarter, and positive progress was made in the new crown vaccine, boosting market confidence
During the National Day holiday, crude oil prices rose, and raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol tend to fluctuate strongly, with good cost-end support, and there are strong signals of recovery in the downstream textile market. Orders have increased sharply, and the comprehensive weaving start-up rate has rebounded significantly. Under the dual benefits of cost and demand, polyester filament factories have continued to increase their quotations. The focus of market transactions has steadily increased, production and sales have exceeded 100 for many consecutive days, factory inventories have been significantly reduced, and cash flow has also turned from losses to profits.
In November, positive progress was made in the new crown vaccine. The negative market sentiment affected by the continued surge in epidemics in Europe and the United States in recent days suddenly disappeared. Multiple factors combined to cause a sharp surge in oil prices. In addition, the sales of clothing on Double Eleven are good, and market confidence has greatly increased. After Double Eleven, spring and summer orders will start, and the order volume is more likely to rise one after another, which will be transmitted upward and drive the market price of polyester filament to rise.
Into December, crude oil prices continued to rebound, forming certain positive support for the polyester raw material market. PTA and ethylene glycol continued to rise, polymerization costs continued to rise, and under cost pressure, polyester Filament factories are actively raising prices, and the focus of market transactions has been steadily increasing. Under the guidance of rising buying sentiment, downstream factories have overall good production and sales. In addition, some polyester filament factories have successively launched maintenance plans, and the overall polyester filament market is stable and strong.
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