Zheng Mian has been operating in shock recently. After rising higher in early trading on Wednesday, it fell back, stabilized in the afternoon, and closed stronger in late trading. The trend of Zheng cotton remained volatile, which is bullish in the short term. The closing price of CF2105 on the 6th was 15,430 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. U.S. cotton is in the red, with the imported cotton price index at 14,208 yuan/ton, up 314 yuan/ton from last week, or 2.26%. Market participants joked that it may be to welcome the arrival of the new U.S. president.
At the industrial level, the recent enthusiasm of downstream buyers to replenish their stocks has not subsided. The increase in consumer demand has driven the domestic and foreign yarn markets to recover simultaneously. The profits of downstream yarns have recovered. As the year is approaching, the continued rising market has tested the downstream endurance. , companies are generally cautiously optimistic about the market outlook.
Picture: Futures market performance on January 6
Enterprises actively replenish stocks before the Spring Festival, driving up cotton prices
Due to low raw material inventory levels, textile companies are actively replenishing their inventories before the Spring Festival, driving up domestic cotton prices. According to China’s cotton price index 3128B level 15203, it increased by nearly 240 yuan/ton from last week and 605 yuan/ton from early December last year.
The delivery price of Xinjiang 328 machine-picked cotton is 15,135 yuan/ton, which is higher than the same period last week 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 635 yuan/ton from December last year, an increase of 4.2%.
Goods are moving smoothly, and the inventory of downstream finished products has dropped
Since mid-December last year, the textile market atmosphere has continued to be active, and downstream yarn Sales are good, yarn and gray fabric operating rates have stabilized, and finished product inventories continue to decline. As of Monday, the yarn and gray fabric inventories were 6.7 days and 20.8 days respectively, down 7 days and 3 days respectively from the beginning of December. The inventories were close to those during the most popular National Day last year.
It is understood that “the current yarn inventory level in the market is relatively low. Once the demand for a certain product increases, traders and yarn mills will compete to raise prices.”
Yarn prices have increased significantly with the increase in downstream demand. As of Wednesday, the domestic C32S yarn price index was at 23,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,850 yuan/ton from early December last year. The price of gray fabrics also increased in line with the raw material quotations, with 32S pure cotton twill rising by nearly 3%. The price of conventional imported yarn has increased week-on-week, by about 400 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic yarn is about 400 yuan/ton. The transaction is relatively smooth, and traders are optimistic. According to China Yarn Network, the price of pure cotton yarn has increased in many cases. Textile companies mainly focus on ordering production. Most companies do not have spot inventory. Under the “little red envelope” of the market situation a year ago, textile companies and traders are optimistic about the market outlook. Be cautiously optimistic.
Most yarn mills and cloth mills will maintain orders until the end of January
It is understood that the price of cotton has changed every day recently. Polyester staple fiber has also continued to rise. On January 6, polyester staple fiber closed at 6714, an increase of 1.63%. Some business people said, “I received an order today, and the price increased in the evening. Now the market does not dare to take orders casually, yarn There is a phenomenon of random quotation by factories.” After the recent restocking, cotton textile companies may gradually become more cautious in purchasing, and most yarn mills and cloth mills can only maintain orders until the end of January. Therefore, domestic textile companies will have an early holiday in January, thus Possibility of downtime.
Reasons for the rise in cotton prices
According to market analysis, the main reasons for the rise in cotton prices this year are as follows:
1 , Last year, the purchase price of new cotton increased significantly. It is understood that the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton in 2020 opened high and then fell slightly after reaching the highest level in the year in October last year, with the highest exceeding 7.5 yuan/kg. As of now, the purchase and sale of domestic seed cotton has basically ended. According to statistics, the cost price of most machine-picked lint cotton in Xinjiang is around 10,000 yuan.
2. The impact of rising export shipping prices and China-Europe freight train prices. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, global demand for cargo transportation has dropped sharply, and major shipping companies have suspended routes. When domestic demand recovers, supply exceeds demand, causing freight rates to rise sharply. The South China Morning Post reported in December: Shipping costs in China have risen by more than 300% since March as exporters scramble to meet delivery schedules and commitments due to a shortage of containers.
3. The recovery of downstream demand has pushed up cotton prices. Since June last year, textile exports have achieved positive year-on-year growth for six consecutive months. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of 2020, textile exports increased by as much as 33%, with “exploding orders” in succession. As exports grow and domestic consumption recovers, With the combined efforts, textile companies actively stocked up before the year, and textile companies had sufficient orders, which pushed up the price of cotton raw materials.
The holiday peak for textile companies is approaching, and the resistance to Zheng Cotton’s rise is increasing
As downstream profits continue to improve, Textile enterprises are more willing to restock raw materials, the purchase and sale of finished products is active, and orders are rising before the Spring Festival.��Yes to plenty. However, most downstream textile companies are currently focusing on completing the delivery of early orders, and have limited ability to bear the rising prices of raw materials and yarns.
In addition, as the holiday peak of textile companies is approaching, the driving force of downstream demand will weaken. Many printing and dyeing factories in Guangdong and Fujian have announced holiday times; in addition, the price of Zheng cotton is close to Even covering some hedging points, the resistance to Zheng Cotton’s continued rise has increased. Capital in the futures market may take profits at any time. It is recommended that textile enterprises pay more attention and follow up the current raw material market cautiously.