The prosperity monitoring results of the China Textile Federation Circulation Branch show that in December 2020, the prosperity index of the national textile and apparel professional market managers was 50.16, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points from 50.75 in November; the prosperity index of professional market merchants was 50.80, a decrease from 11 The monthly reading was 51.46, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points. In December, the textile and apparel professional market declined slightly based on the peak sales season in November, and the overall prosperity is improving.
Managers’ prosperity and merchants’ prosperity are both higher than the 50 boom-bust line
Data shows that 12 In March, the various prosperity indexes of national textile and apparel professional market managers and merchants dropped slightly compared with November, but were overall higher than the 50 line.
1. The manager’s prosperity index dropped by 0.59 percentage points
Chart 1 Manager Index List Data source: Statistics from China Textile Federation Circulation Branch
From the perspective of manager prosperity index, among the total index, the manager prosperity index in December was 50.16, which was 50.16. November’s 50.75 dropped 0.59 percentage points; the business environment index was 49.03, down 2.58 percentage points from November’s 51.61.
Among the sub-indexes, the total operating volume index was 50.97, down 0.97 percentage points from 51.94 in November; the logistics shipment volume index was 51.29, down 0.65 percentage points from 51.94 in November. percentage points; the passenger flow index was 50.00, down 1.61 percentage points from 51.61 in November; the open rate index was 49.35, down 0.65 percentage points from 50.00 in November; the rental index was 48.71, the same as November; the e-commerce sales index was 50.65 , an increase of 0.32 percentage points from 50.32 in November.
2. The merchant prosperity index dropped by 0.66 percentage points
Chart 2 Merchant Index List Data source: China Textile Federation Circulation Branch Statistics
From the perspective of merchant prosperity index, among the total index, the merchant prosperity index in December was 50.80 , a decrease of 0.66 percentage points from 51.46 in November; the business environment index was 49.15, a decrease of 4.41 percentage points from 53.57 in November.
Among the sub-indexes, the sales volume index was 52.18, down 1.17 percentage points from 53.36 in November; the average selling price index was 51.41, down 1.39 percentage points from 52.80 in November; The profitability index was 51.76, down 1.18 percentage points from 52.94 in November; the comprehensive cost index was 49.65, up 0.63 percentage points from 49.02 in November; the inventory index was 50.14, up 0.14 percentage points from 50.00 in November; e-commerce sales The index was 49.65, down 0.98 percentage points from 50.63 in November.
Data analysis
1. The total market operation and logistics shipment volume index declined in December. Select those with an increase in total market operation. The proportion was 25.81%, a decrease of 6.45 percentage points from 32.26% in November; the proportion of increase in selected market logistics shipments was 25.81%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points from 29.03% in November. The total market operation index and logistics shipment volume index both showed a downward trend. It can be seen that with the end of the peak sales season in the second half of the year, sales in the professional market have declined slightly.
2. Merchant cost and inventory pressures have eased. In December, the merchant comprehensive cost index was 49.65, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from 49.02 in November; the inventory index was 50.14, an increase of 0.14 from 50.00 in November. percentage points. Through a series of winter clothing promotions in December, merchants’ cost pressure and inventory pressure have been slightly relieved.
The prediction index has declined overall
The data shows that in terms of managers, the manager’s prosperity index for the next period will be 49.35, which is 49.35 compared with November. The index was 51.94, a decrease of 2.58 percentage points; the next business environment index was 49.68, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points from 51.61 in November. In terms of merchants, the merchant prosperity index for the next period is 48.94, down 4.69 percentage points from 53.64 in November; the business environment index for the next period is 48.31, down 5.19 percentage points from 53.50 in November. In terms of prediction index, the four prediction indexes of managers and merchants all showed significant declines. In December, due to the spread of the domestic epidemic at multiple points, professional market managers and merchants’ confidence in the operating conditions in January declined.
Attachment
1. Monitoring method “Textile and apparel professional market climate index” consists of “manager index” and “merchant index” “Consists of two parts. Using a sampling method, markets and merchants in different business categories such as clothing, fabrics, home textiles, and small commodities were selected across the country, and the manager’s prosperity index questionnaire and merchant’s prosperity index questionnaire were filled in respectively.
2. Monitoring sample managers’ prosperity samples were collected from 32 textile and apparel majors including Guangzhou Baima Clothing Market, Beijing Tianya Women’s Clothing Building, Jiangsu Dieshiqiao Home Textile Market, Shanghai Xinqipu Clothing Market, and Liaoning Xiliu Clothing Market. Market composition. The merchant prosperity sample consists of more than 150 merchants, including Taotao Clothing, Muzi Caowu, Ruili Hanshi, and Zhedi Clothing.
3. Monitoring cycle The boom monitoring cycle is based on a monthly basis. It is reported at the end of each month and released at the beginning of the following month.
4. Index composition In the “Textile and Garment Professional Market Sentiment Index”, the “Manager Index” consists of the current period’s manager’s prosperity index, the next period’s manager’s prosperity index, the current period’s business environment index, and the next period’s business environment index. It is composed of four first-level indexes; the “Managers’ Prosperity Index for the Current Period” consists of the total operating volume index, logistics shipment volume index, passenger flow index and so on.It is composed of six secondary indexes: �� index, opening rate index, rent index and e-commerce sales index. The “Merchant Index” is composed of four primary indexes: the merchant prosperity index of the current period, the merchant prosperity index of the next period, the business environment index of the current period, and the business environment index of the next period; the “merchant prosperity index of the current period” is composed of the sales volume index, average selling price index, It is composed of six secondary indexes: profitability index, comprehensive cost index, inventory index and e-commerce sales index.
5. Index analysis The positive index includes the manager’s total operating volume index, logistics shipment volume index, customer flow index, merchant opening rate index, rent index, e-commerce sales proportion index and merchant sales index. Average selling price index, profitability index, and e-commerce sales proportion index. If the positive index exceeds 50, it means that the business situation is optimistic. The larger the value, the more optimistic it is. If the positive index is lower than 50, it means the business situation is not optimistic. The smaller the value, the more pessimistic it is. The reverse index includes merchant cost index and inventory index. If the cost and expense index exceeds 50, it means that the merchant’s cost pressure is decreasing. The larger the value, the smaller the cost pressure. The cost and expense index is lower than 50, which means that the merchant’s cost pressure is increasing. The smaller the number, the greater the cost pressure. If the inventory index exceeds 50, it means that the merchant’s inventory pressure is reduced. The larger the value, the smaller the inventory pressure. If the inventory index is lower than 50, it means that the merchant’s inventory pressure is increasing. The smaller the value, the greater the inventory pressure. </p
