Introduction: After New Year’s Day, the number of new crown cases in the mainland increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in cases in Hebei. As a major cotton growing area, Hebei is bound to have an impact Regarding cotton purchase and sales in the local and surrounding areas, let’s take a look at the specific impact analysis based on the communication with the ginners.
After New Year’s Day, the number of new coronavirus cases in the mainland has increased significantly. In addition to imported cases, the increase in local cases has also made us nervous, and everyone is paying attention to it. The area with the highest increase in local cases is in Hebei. We can see from the location of confirmed cases in Hebei Province that they are mainly concentrated in Shijiazhuang City and Xingtai City.
It can be seen from the trend of new confirmed cases that in recent years The number of new additions grew faster on several days, and the number of new additions declined on the 7th. The local epidemic prevention department actively organized epidemic prevention work and quarantined all employees. Not only those in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai areas, but also those in surrounding cities and towns also arranged nucleic acid tests.
As we mentioned above, Hebei is also the main cotton planting area in the mainland. In recent years, the cotton planting area in the mainland has shrunk year by year. In the Yellow River Basin, Hebei and Shandong are the main cotton planting areas. We can see from the map of the proportion of the main producing provinces in the Yellow River Basin that Hebei still has the largest proportion, accounting for about half. Therefore, Hebei still has a heavy influence on the supply of real estate cotton.
In Hebei Province, the specific main planting areas and counties are concentrated in Xingtaiwei County, Nangong, Guangzong, Linxi, Handan Qiu County, Cangzhou Dongguang, Wuqiao, Tangshan, Hengshui Gucheng, Zaoqiang , Jizhou, etc. We learned through research that the proportion of its main cotton areas is as follows
The proportion of cotton planting area in the main cotton planting areas of Hebei Province
As you can see, although Shijiazhuang is not a cotton planting area, Xingtai has 3 The proportion of cotton planting in this region accounts for about 35%, which has a linkage impact on the purchase and processing of seed cotton in Hebei or surrounding areas.
Recently, we have conducted research and understanding with cotton ginning factories in Xingtai and surrounding areas. As far as the Xingtai area is concerned, the purchase, sale and processing of seed cotton in Nangong area have stopped, the purchase of seed cotton in Guangzong and Wei County has also stopped, and the ginning mill is basically at a standstill. In addition, the current circulation of seed cotton in the Jizhou area of Hengshui, which is relatively close to Nangong, has also been affected. Ginning plants have also stopped operations after completing the processing of seed cotton stocks. In Handan, another cotton-growing area, transportation to the north has to go through Xingtai, so external transportation is also blocked.
At present, the processing of cotton ginning plants in Cangzhou is normal, but transportation problems have also occurred recently. In addition, it is a time when cotton prices are high, so manufacturers have not had any substantial transactions recently.
It affected the purchase of seed cotton in Gaotang, Wucheng, Xiajin and other places.
In the short term, the new crown epidemic in Hebei will reduce the supply of real estate cotton in the near future, and the purchase of ginneries in Shandong will decrease. In addition, the early seed cotton inventory is not Large, thus affecting the processing volume of enterprises, the supply of lint will also gradually tighten. Under the current high-level operation situation, the price-raising mentality of cotton ginning mills is even more obvious.
We still need to pay attention to the development of the epidemic in Hebei in the future. At present, the Hebei Health Commission has also issued a document stating that Hebei has achieved full coverage of nucleic acid testing capabilities, and all employees are tested and travel The implementation of a series of anti-epidemic measures such as temporary restrictions on activities will not have the same wide-scale impact as in the early stage, and market panic will not increase significantly. Therefore, the negative impact on the short-term market is still accompanied, but tight supply and continued demand, etc. , will also bring strong support to the recent real estate cotton.
</p
