After New Year’s Day, the price of polyester staple fiber has stabilized at more than 6,000 yuan/ton; however, the futures market has fallen in the past two days, but the spot market price has been very resilient; Regarding future expectations, the market’s long and short news are colliding fiercely; on the one hand, corporate equity inventories continue to be negative, and there are many downstream orders until March, but on the other hand, raw material supply pressure is expected to increase, and the space for short fiber spot processing fees has been obvious Higher than other polyester products, the market is full of bullish and bearish news. How will it develop in the future?
Based on the current fundamentals, entering January, the operating rate of downstream yarn mills has gradually declined. However, since October 2020, the equity inventory of polyester staple fiber companies has continued to be negative. In addition, after mid-term Factory maintenance has continued to increase, so the industry’s supply pressure was generally low in the first quarter. Moreover, although downstream yarn mills currently have abundant raw material inventories, most of their own orders can be received until March. With ample room for processing fees and good orders, mills may still have a wave of stocking operations before the holiday.
Recent direct spinning staple fiber overhaul/restart schedule:
Based on the above theory, the future market of polyester staple fiber is still relatively optimistic. However, in terms of raw material costs, with the gradual implementation of polyester factory maintenance plans and the gradual increase in supply, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will gradually intensify. Although ethylene glycol The short-term supply is slightly tight, but we will also face the contradiction between supply and demand in the future. Therefore, in a cycle of substantial expansion of production, the market’s expectations for the future are not optimistic. However, it is worth noting that the industry’s expectations for oil are optimistic, which will form a strong support for polyester raw materials in terms of cost.
Furthermore, compared with the continuous rise of cotton, viscose staple fiber and other cotton spinning raw materials, polyester staple fiber currently has a small increase; the current cotton-polyester price difference is still at a historically high level, and viscose- The price difference between polyester and polyester continues to widen; most yarn mill buyers believe that polyester staple fiber is still at a low value level, and there is currently good room for processing fees for various pure and blended yarns, especially pure polyester T32S, which has a profit margin of 1,000 Yuan/ton or more, so theoretically speaking, spinning mills can accept the current price of short fiber.
The author believes that the main factor restricting the current price increase of polyester staple fiber is that the market still has some low-priced supply that has not yet been digested. At present, the staple fiber cost of traders’ yarn mills is mostly less than 6,150 yuan/ton. The expectations are not all good news and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, buyers still have a strong wait-and-see mentality, so it is normal for futures and spot prices to fall within a narrow range.
However, based on the current fundamentals, negative inventory of short fiber companies may become the norm in the first quarter, coupled with the increase in routine maintenance at the end of the year, and the holiday time of downstream spinning mills is slightly Later than expected, and the market’s mid- to long-term expectations for oil are still optimistic. On the whole, the polyester staple fiber market in the first quarter may be easy to rise but difficult to fall.