After New Year’s Day, the price of polyester staple fiber has stabilized at more than 6,000 yuan/ton; however, the futures market has declined in the past two days, but the spot market price has been very resilient; regarding future expectations, the collision of long and short news in the market is fierce; on the one hand, companies Equity inventory continues to be negative, and there are still many downstream orders until March. However, on the other hand, the pressure on raw material supply is expected to increase, and the spot processing fee space for short fiber has been significantly higher than that of other polyester products. The market is full of bullish and short news, and there will be more in the future. How will it develop?
Based on the current fundamentals, the operating rate of downstream spinning mills has gradually declined since January 2020. However, since October 2020, the equity inventory of polyester staple fiber companies has continued to be negative, and factory maintenance has increased since mid-term. , so the industry’s supply pressure was generally low in the first quarter. Moreover, although downstream yarn mills currently have abundant raw material inventories, most of their own orders can be received until March. With ample room for processing fees and good orders, mills may still have a wave of stocking operations before the holiday.
Furthermore, compared with the continued rise in cotton spinning raw materials such as cotton and viscose staple fiber, polyester staple fiber currently has a small increase; the current cotton-polyester price difference is still At a historically high level, the price difference between viscose and polyester continues to widen; yarn mill buyers mostly believe that polyester staple fiber is still at a low value level, and there is currently good room for processing fees for various pure and blended yarns, especially pure yarns. The profit margin of polyester T32S must be above 1,000 yuan/ton, so theoretically speaking, spinning mills can accept the current price of short fiber.
Based on the above theory, the future market of polyester staple fiber is still relatively optimistic. However, in terms of raw material costs, with the gradual implementation of polyester factory maintenance plans and the gradual increase in supply, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will gradually Although the short-term supply of ethylene glycol is slightly tight, it will also face a contradiction between supply and demand in the future. Therefore, in a cycle of substantial expansion of production, the market’s expectations for the future are not optimistic. However, it is worth noting that the industry’s expectations for oil are optimistic, which will form a strong support for polyester raw materials in terms of cost.
The author believes that the main factor restricting the current price increase of polyester staple fiber is that the market still has some low-priced supply that has not yet been digested. At present, the staple fiber cost of traders’ yarn mills is mostly less than 6,150 yuan/ton. The expectations are not all good news and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, buyers still have a strong wait-and-see mentality, so it is normal for futures and spot prices to fall within a narrow range. However, based on the current fundamentals, negative inventory of short-fiber companies may become the norm in the first quarter, coupled with the increase in routine maintenance at the end of the year, while the holidays for downstream spinning mills are slightly later than expected, and the market’s mid- to long-term expectations for oil are still optimistic. Comprehensive Judging from the results, the polyester staple fiber market in the first quarter may be easy to rise but difficult to fall. </p