In 2020, domestic private refining and chemical companies will make a brilliant debut, with Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical taking the lead in rapid expansion. Under the epidemic environment, domestic polyester demand has also shown stronger resilience.
In terms of production capacity scale, as of the end of November, the total polyester production capacity has expanded to 63.2 million tons; in terms of production capacity increment, as of the end of November, polyester production capacity has increased 4.88 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of nearly 8.4% during the year; in terms of production capacity structure, polyester filament production capacity is nearly 70%, polyester bottle flake production capacity has increased, and polyester staple fiber production capacity has dropped to around 12%.
From the perspective of actual output, as of the end of November, the cumulative output of polyester has reached 47.68 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. Production increases are basically matched.
Unlike textiles and clothing, which are “strong on the outside and weak on the inside”, the demand for polyester at the raw material end is “weak on the outside and strong on the inside”. From the perspective of external demand, the decline in polyester exports has not yet been compensated. From January to October, the total domestic polyester exports were nearly 5.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%. The decline in polyester product exports has promoted the expansion of domestic polyester demand. Judging from apparent consumption data, from January to October, the total apparent domestic polyester consumption was nearly 38.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.
The prosperity of the polyester chain in the post-epidemic period is expected to rebound due to the expansion of demand; at the same time, the textile and clothing industries are restocking The unfolding of the process may accelerate the expansion of the chain’s prosperity. In the trend of recovering the prosperity of the polyester chain, the polyester link may benefit more from the relatively stable supply and demand relationship.
With the great prospects of polyester, major polyester companies have handed over a beautiful report card in 2020!
Rongsheng Petrochemical’s net profit in 2020 increased by 222%-244% year-on-year
Rongsheng Petrochemical announced its 2020 full-year performance forecast. It is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.100 billion yuan to 7.600 billion yuan throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 221.72%-244.38%. Profit was 6.70 billion yuan-7.200 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 240.58%-266.00%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 1.448 billion yuan to 1.948 billion yuan.
During the reporting period, the company’s year-on-year performance increased significantly, mainly due to the “40 million tons refining and chemical integration project” of its holding subsidiary Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. After the first phase of the project was put into operation, the production of each device has progressed smoothly, the operating load has steadily increased, and the benefits have been released significantly.
With the stable operation of the first phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Project, the second phase of the project has completed preliminary work such as engineering construction, equipment installation and commissioning, and the relevant devices are ready for operation. The overall project is expected to It will be put into production in the first half of 2021 and gradually enter the performance release period.
Hengli Petrochemical’s first three quarters
Revenue of 103.3 billion yuan comes from low-price crude oil and ethylene production
Hengli Petrochemical has not yet released a performance forecast for 2020, but it can be seen from the third quarter report of 2020 that Revenue in the first three quarters was 103.3 billion yuan, +35% year-on-year. Revenue in this quarter was 36 billion yuan, +6% year-on-year, and -4% month-on-month. Net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2020 was 9.9 billion yuan, +45% year-on-year. , the net profit attributable to the parent company for this quarter was 4.38 billion yuan, +57% year-on-year and +30% month-on-month.
Q3 performance continued to grow, coming from low-price crude oil and the commissioning of ethylene.
1) Low oil prices have led to widening price differences: According to estimates, the company’s crude oil purchase cost in the first three quarters was less than 45 US dollars/barrel, which was 25 US dollars/barrel lower than the same period last year, corresponding to a reduction of 1,179 yuan/ton in cost per ton. tons, while the price of refined oil only dropped by 359 yuan/ton year-on-year, and the price of chemical products only dropped by 148 yuan/ton. The price difference between the company’s refined oil and chemical products has expanded year-on-year, which is also the main reason for the company’s continued growth in performance.
2) The company’s 1.5 million tons/year ethylene unit was fully put into operation in the third quarter and contributed performance, which is an important reason why the company’s single-quarter performance in the third quarter hit a record high. Judging from the data released by the company, Q3 chemical sales volume was 5.86 million tons, a net increase of 1.52 million tons compared with Q2 quarter. The increase mainly came from ethylene projects.
Under the low oil prices in the third quarter, the cost advantage of naphtha ethylene over the coal-to-coal route has brought good profitability. The company’s ethylene project has also fully enjoyed the high profitability brought by low cost.
This project further opens up the company’s “olefin-ethylene glycol-polyester” industrial chain, marking the opening up of the entire industrial chain of Hengli Petrochemical’s polyester chemical fiber and upstream of strategic significance. The construction of large-scale refining and chemical production capacity came to a successful conclusion.
Hengyi Petrochemical: Growth of 38.09% in the first three quarters
Brunei refining and chemical projects continue to contribute Performance Increment
Hengyi Petrochemical has not yet released a performance forecast for 2020. In October last year, Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) announced its third quarter report.It said that in the first three quarters, the listed company achieved revenue of 61.321 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.09%.
Since the first phase of the Brunei refining and chemical project was put into operation in November 2019, the Brunei project has attracted much market attention. In the first half of this year, Brunei’s refining and chemical projects achieved smooth operation and continued high-load production. Sales of refined oil, chemical products and other products were smooth. Sales revenue from refining products and chemical products were 9.046 billion yuan and 1.542 billion yuan respectively (this data is from external sources). Sales Amount).
Hengyi Petrochemical stated that in the past year, the Brunei refining and chemical project has continued to contribute to the performance growth of listed companies as a new project. quantity. Hengyi Petrochemical once explained in its third quarter performance forecast that because the Brunei refining and chemical project is located in Southeast Asia, the demand for refined oil is strong, the chemical products meet the needs of its own downstream factories, and the project policy guarantee, process technology and other obvious advantages are expected to be high in the third quarter. Single-quarter profit continued to improve quarter-on-quarter, with good new net profit attributable to the parent company.
After the second phase of the Brunei Refining and Chemical Project is completed and put into operation, the “ethylene-propylene-polypropylene” industrial chain will be added, which will help improve Brunei The intensification, scale and integration level of the refining and chemical integration project are conducive to the integration, globalization and balanced coordinated operation of the company’s industries, products and assets, and enhance the company’s sustainable profitability and risk resistance.
Xin Fengming: Q4 performance exceeded expectations
Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 28.55% year-on-year to 56.65%
On January 8, Xinfengming released its 2020 performance forecast, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020 is expected to be It is 580-650 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.02%-57.19%; it is expected to achieve a net profit of 380-430 million yuan attributable to the parent company in 2020, deducting non-net profit attributable to the parent company, and it can be calculated that the net profit after non-attributable to the parent company in Q4 is 302-352 million yuan, + 25%-46%, turning losses into profits month-on-month. Based on the performance forecast, we have raised our profit forecast. Before the adjustment, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.44, 1.770, and 2.333 billion yuan respectively in 2020-2022. After the adjustment, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020-2022 is expected to be 6.33, 19.60, and 29.98 yuan respectively. billion.
The off-season for Q4 polyester filament yarn is not weak, production and sales are booming, and the price difference continues to repair. The average price difference of POY expanded from 814 yuan/ton in Q3 to 1,151 yuan/ton in Q4, driving the company’s performance to significantly improve month-on-month. At the same time, the company has successively put into operation the second set of 2.5 million tons of PTA equipment and 600,000 tons of polyester filament production capacity in Q4. The production capacity of PTA and polyester filament has reached 5 million tons. PTA can also achieve self-sufficiency, latecomer advantages and scale effects. It is expected to further reduce the company’s average PTA processing cost and protect the company’s profitability.
Xinfengming’s production capacity expansion is progressing simultaneously with the recovery of industry demand. It is expected that the company, as an industry leader, will fully benefit. According to estimates, the growth rate of demand for polyester filament will return to more than 8% year-on-year growth in 2021. It is expected that the company will invest 1 million tons of filament production capacity in 2021. By then, the company’s polyester filament production capacity will reach 6 million tons. While consolidating its leading position in the industry, it will fully enjoy the dividends of industry recovery due to upward demand. According to the announcement, Xinfengming plans to build 2 million tons of polyester staple fiber production capacity and is expected to launch 600,000 tons in the second half of 2021. The combination of vertical extension of the industrial chain and horizontal development of product structure will help the filament leader to take off again.
As downstream demand recovers, the price index of chemical fiber products gradually rebounds. In the future, as downstream demand recovers, the price recovery momentum is expected to be maintained. At the beginning of a new cycle, industry prosperity is on the rise. From a demand side perspective, after the short-term impact of the epidemic, downstream demand began to pick up. With the effective control of the domestic epidemic and the resumption of work and production as necessary, the PMI index and China’s chemical product price index rose significantly in the second half of last year. It is expected that in 2021, with the rising prosperity of the chemical industry and the recovery of the macro economy, the PMI index and China’s chemical product price index will continue to recover steadily. Broken down, demand in chemical downstream industries such as real estate, automobiles, textiles, clothing, and agriculture has picked up significantly in the second half of the year, driving the demand for chemical products to rise; it is expected that as the downstream industries continue to pick up in 2021, industrial demand will rise accordingly, and industry prosperity will continue to heat up. </p
