Introduction: Cost-end benefits continue to be released, the contradiction between supply and demand becomes more and more prominent, and the PTA market rises rapidly and then maintains a volatile market. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, is there a possibility of a sudden change in the PTA market?
Cost side
The new U.S. government has introduced more economic stimulus measures after taking office. Fuel demand is expected to recover further, providing support for oil prices. In addition, OPEC+ oil-producing countries strictly implement the crude oil production reduction agreement, and global crude oil supply is restricted. The gradual expansion of the scope of COVID-19 vaccination has made the crude oil market optimistic, but it is undeniable that the current epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still extremely serious, and it will take some time for demand to recover. In terms of PX, there is no clear restart time for the PX equipment of CICC Petrochemical. The supply of PX continues to be tight, and the sentiment of raising prices is strong. The PX market remains strong in the short term.
Supply end
Yangzi Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton unit will reduce production starting from February 1 to 80% operation. The other half of the production capacity of a new 2.5 million unit in Fujian Baihong was officially put into production on February 3. The negative price of a 1.4 million-ton unit of Reignwood Petrochemical has dropped to 60-70% since February 3. A 2 million-ton unit in Ningbo Yisheng will be shut down for maintenance on January 24, restarted on February 4, and products will be released on February 6. The current PTA social inventory is 3.796 million tons. The loose supply has restricted the price of PTA. At present, the PTA maintenance plan in February and March is relatively small. Therefore, PTA may still accumulate inventory significantly after the holiday.
Demand side
There are still too many downstream polyester maintenance devices, and the comprehensive start-up of polyester is showing The downward trend currently remains at 80.48%. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, most end-use companies have stopped for the holidays. Industry participation is low, and the weaving start-up load has dropped sharply to 33%. There is a large gap between the supply and demand of PTA, and with the new equipment fully operational, the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, which has become the biggest negative factor in the current PTA market.
Overall
The weak supply and demand pattern of PTA before the holiday suppressed the market upward trend, and the PTA market There has been a correction after the sharp rise, but the strong cost support has made PTA prices more resistant to falling. In the absence of major negative effects on the cost side, the PTA market price will not fall sharply, and may remain at a high level and fluctuate.
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