PTA supply and demand will remain loose throughout 2020. Entering 2021, PTA plans to add a lot of new production capacity, which is expected to reach 11.5 million tons, and most of the production time will be concentrated in the first half of the year. Moreover, the planned production in the first quarter accounted for a relatively high proportion, mainly 2.5 million tons of Fujian Baihong, 2.4 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical Phase II, and 3.3 million tons of Yisheng New Materials Phase I, of which 2.5 million tons of Fujian Baihong were put into production in January. The other two units will be put into operation smoothly, and most of the other two units will be put into operation around the first quarter; the second phase of Yisheng New Materials, with a capacity of 3.3 million tons, may be put into operation at the end of the third quarter. Given the high concentration of production in the first quarter, we will explore the changes in the supply and demand side of PTA in the first quarter based on whether the second phase of Honggang Petrochemical and the first phase of Yisheng New Materials can be put into production in the first quarter.
First, let’s take a look at the polyester end.
As the Spring Festival approaches, the maintenance plans of polyester companies have been gradually announced. As of now, the maintenance capacity involved has reached 12.111 million tons, of which 1.98 million tons have been completed and restarted. Judging from the intensity of maintenance, most of the equipment that was overhauled in late January planned to restart in late February, and some companies planned to save it for maintenance from late February to March. Overall, the maintenance of polyester equipment had a relatively large impact in February, and production increased significantly in March due to the recovery of the equipment. According to statistics from Longzhong Information, it is estimated that the average construction start-up in February will be 82.13%, the average construction start-up in March will be 88.50%, and the comprehensive load from January to March will be 85.89%.
Secondly,judgingfromtherecentmaintenanceeffortsofPTAequipment,therewerefewPTAequipmentmaintenanceinFebruary,andmostofthemaintenanceisexpectedtobeconcentratedinMarch.IftheaboveequipmentisinMarchThemonthlymaintenancehasbeencompleted.IfthenewmaterialsequipmentofHonggangandYishengareputintoproduction,theoutputinMarchmaybeslightlylower,estimatedat4.35milliontons,andtheoutputinthefirstquarterisestimatedat13.0555milliontons.
IfthesecondphaseofHonggangPetrochemicalandthefirstphaseofYishengNewMaterialsareexpectedtobeputintoproductioninMarch,basedonthesemi-negativecalculation,thenthePTAoutputinMarchmayreach4.61milliontons,aThequarterlycumulativePTAoutputisestimatedat13.3155milliontons.
Taken together, the contradiction between loose supply and demand for PTA continues to escalate in the first quarter of 2021, and it is difficult to see a significant improvement. As can be seen from the above figure, even with the intensive maintenance of multiple PTA units in March, there was only a short-term tight balance between supply and demand in mid-March, the destocking status was not obvious, and the cycle was short. It can be seen from this that even if the two new PTA units fail to be put into production, PTA will continue to have a situation of oversupply and demand. We do not expect that there will be a large mismatch between supply and demand for PTA in the first quarter. <br
