[Introduction]: Although the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, based on the good supply and demand situation of polyester staple fiber and the support of relatively promising raw materials, polyester has been The price of short fiber market continues to rise; and not only the price rises, but the actual transactions also follow suit. At present, the entire industry chain is optimistic about the post-holiday market, and all links have sufficient stocks.
Data source: Longzhong Information
Figure 1
As for post-holiday expectations, Longzhong believes that although the operating rate of polyester staple fiber factories around the Spring Festival It is significantly higher than the same period in previous years. However, because polyester staple fiber factories continue to oversell before the holiday, and the current oversold days of mainstream staple fiber manufacturers have reached 40-50 days, there is no pressure on the supply side.
Data source: Longzhong Information
Figure 2
Comparing historical data, polyester staple fiber stocks and prices show a strong correlation There is a negative correlation, especially since November 2020, because the factory equity inventory has continued to be negative, causing the market price to continue to be strong. Even if it encounters a short-term decline, it is far more resilient than other polyester varieties.
Data source: Longzhong Information
Figure 3
Furthermore, through the comparison between the production and sales rate and the price of short fiber, the production and sales rate is usually one of the leading indicators of price rise and fall. When the production and sales ratio continues to improve, prices are likely to continue to rise. However, when the production and sales ratio is weak for many consecutive days, the market rise will temporarily end or even decline. Looking at the recent market, factory production and sales were good for two consecutive days on February 6th and 7th (the 25th and 26th of the twelfth lunar month). In previous years, the market has basically completed replenishment after the 15th of the twelfth lunar month. The reason why factories can still have a relatively high production and sales rate today comes from the industry’s optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market.
Moreover, the cost-side support is also optimistic. The cost support brought by oil and the relative optimism in the supply and demand of PTA and ethylene glycol in the first quarter are also optimistic about polyester staple fiber Provide some support. However, it is worth mentioning the early overdraft of downstream demand.
Overall, downstream orders are currently performing well. Most polyester yarn factory orders can be received in mid-to-late March. However, the same problem has occurred after recent continuous stocking. At present, yarn mills can stock up until mid-to-late March, and some companies can even stock up until the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, so there is a certain risk of overdraft in the short fiber market.
In other words, although the market was originally optimistic about post-holiday expectations, the market also believed that the price of short fiber would rise to 7000-7200 yuan/ton after the holiday. However, unexpectedly, the market price before the holiday has surged to nearly 7,000 yuan/ton. The advance of this increase has also significantly increased the spot processing fees for short fiber. Therefore, under the background of sufficient stocking in all aspects, after the holiday The upside potential may be greatly reduced. However, in any case, based on the current still optimistic fundamentals, the price of short fiber is still easy to rise but difficult to fall. In addition, after the holiday, the market must also pay attention to the impact on the market after the price difference between raw and recycled staple fibers continues to widen.
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