On March 18, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. U.S. cotton exports performed well last week, with total contract volume reaching 130,000 tons and shipments remaining stable, indicating that the recent sharp correction in cotton prices has effectively stimulated U.S. cotton exports.
Despite this, ICE futures still fell sharply that day. As expectations for U.S. dollar interest rate hikes increased, more and more fund companies began to believe that they needed to reduce their commodity positions, resulting in crude oil prices falling that day. Prices for commodities ranging from , livestock products to grains have plummeted.
On that day, international oil prices plummeted beyond expectations, with U.S. oil falling below the $60 mark and Brent oil hitting a more than one-month low of $61.25. In addition to the 2.396 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories announced on Wednesday, the continued rise in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index has also hit market sentiment. In addition, the epidemic in South America and Europe has recurred and worsened, and short-term oil prices have Demand has been thwarted again.
On Thursday, the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond yield rose to 1.73%, causing the U.S. dollar index to rise sharply, which was also one of the reasons for the decline in commodity futures. Last week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield was 1.60%, compared with 0.73% a year ago.
At present, weather has once again become a hot word in the market. In the next 6-10 days, most cotton-producing areas in the United States will receive more rainfall, but in the next 8-14 days, Texas will receive less rainfall. Most areas of the state are still in a moderate to severe drought. Western Texas has experienced severe drought in the past two months. Rainfall is only 60% of normal levels.
As of Thursday’s close, the main May contract of ICE futures has fallen by 2.11 cents this week and 3.38 cents this month. If nothing unexpected happens, cotton will fall for four consecutive weeks this week. At present, the impact of macro factors on fund operations has overshadowed the demand for cotton, which has always been optimistic. Market sentiment is relatively sluggish, and a rebound in cotton prices requires strong stimulation, otherwise it will remain weak and volatile. </p
