Introduction: Terminal transmission continues to be poor, raw material inventories in downstream spinning mills are still high, and buying enthusiasm in the polyester staple fiber market continues to be low during the week. In addition, there are too many low-priced supplies in the market, especially the return of basis differences. Slow supply has led to low supply of goods at some point prices, dragging down market prices to continue to decline. Affected by the downward atmosphere, market transactions continued to be light, futures and spot prices mutually negative feedback, and the market atmosphere became increasingly depressed. In the short term, although short fiber prices have basically given up the gains after the Spring Festival, it is still difficult for the market to turn around in the absence of new terminal orders.
The overestimation of this year’s demand resulted in crazy replenishment in all aspects in the early stage. However, after the Spring Festival, the arrival of new orders at terminals was far less than expected, and the sufficient stocking situation in all aspects gradually became apparent. A large number of low-priced supplies have impacted the market, leading to a continued decline since March.
As shown in the above figure, compared with other varieties, the decline of polyester staple fiber has been significantly higher than that of other varieties, and has even basically fallen back to the level before the Spring Festival. In the later period, PX will continue to maintain a tight balance in the short term, so it is difficult for PX-N to be further compressed, and PTA spot processing fees continue to be low, so the next trend of oil will be the key to affecting the trends of PX and PTA. The recent surge in U.S. bond yields will be a negative for crude oil and commodities in the short term. In addition, Sino-US relations and the severe epidemic situation in many European countries will also have a negative impact on commodity demand. In the short term, the weakness of oil will still have a negative impact on the polyester market. Forming a big negative; although the spot processing fee of polyester staple fiber has dropped significantly, it is still running at the level of 1500-1600 yuan/ton, which is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years, so the cost is also weak. Will continue to contain the polyester staple fiber market.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the cotton type has been short in the near future. Fiber supply has basically returned to normal. In the short term, the devices that affect the change in short fiber operating rates are hollow and low-melting point devices, which have little impact on cotton supply. However, due to the influence of the excessive inventory of cotton-type staple fiber intermediaries, factory supply The pressure is building. From the terminal point of view, the raw material stocks of downstream yarn companies are mostly available until early or mid-April, while new terminal orders are slow to be placed. Spinners are still cautiously waiting to see short fiber, and short-term demand support is still weak.
So in the context of poor terminal conduction, the short fiber market is still difficult to see the dawn. However, we have mentioned in previous articles that sooner or later, low-priced supply will be gradually digested, and downstream raw material inventories are also gradually depleted. Currently, the industry has certain expectations for the issuance of new terminal orders in early April, so short-term weakness does not mean long-term weakness. The market still needs to pay attention to the new situation of terminal orders (especially foreign trade orders).
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