On March 22, ICE cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range near the previous day’s settlement price, trying to find the right direction. In recent weeks, the market has seen both long and short news, and for a time there was no sense of direction. Traders were generally disappointed with last week’s Sino-US meeting, believing that Sino-US economic and trade relations had suffered a setback.
In addition, traders are also worried about funds reducing their long positions. Although the CFTC position report shows that the net long position of funds increased last week, after all, the data lags behind one week. Judging from the situation in the past week, funds maintain a bearish mindset. The market began to focus on the intended planting area of US cotton on March 31. Before then, cotton prices were more likely to consolidate at low levels.
On March 22, the weakening of the U.S. dollar index provided support for the market, but the short-term strength has not changed. What dominates the current market trend is that rising U.S. dollar interest rates will inhibit the U.S. economy. recovery, not US stimulus-induced inflation.
On the same day, ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower after consolidation, with a fluctuation range of less than 1 cent. Trading was extremely thin. Traders had many worries and doubts about the future direction of the market, including U.S. Factors such as cotton intended planting area, fund closing at the end of the quarter, rising US dollar, and poor Sino-US trade relations.
At the USDA Outlook Forum, the US cotton area forecast was based on market conditions in January this year. The forecast at that time was 12 million acres, which was basically no decrease year-on-year, but the market generally Believing that the competition between cotton and grains is very fierce, some people believe that the US cotton area should be significantly reduced. This issue can only be known after the report is released at the end of the month.
In addition, the renewed blockade in Europe due to the epidemic is also worrying. Some countries have extended the blockade period until after Easter. Therefore, spring clothing retail sales in European and American countries may have failed again. , adversely affecting the demand for cotton textiles. </p
