The MEG market has plummeted recently, with prices falling from a high of around 6440-6640 yuan/ton to around 5020-5190 yuan/ton, nearly a thousand yuan in January The magnitude of the price pullback is as staggering as the rate of rise in February.
Figure 1 MEG price trend in the first quarter (unit: yuan/ton)
Although there are various influencing factors that have led to the decline in EG price trends, such as the gradual restart of US installations and the relatively flat downstream demand in March, which is the traditional off-season, the biggest impact is still the large number of production starts. expectations and external factors. Not surprisingly, the timing of new production equipment varies. Except for Shaanxi Weihua Chemical Co., Ltd., satellite and Zhejiang Petrochemical are all expected to be put into production in April. Therefore, although there is not much expected production capacity in the future, and some coal chemical plants may However, the supply in April is still likely to be tight, and the current supply situation may continue.
Table 1. Recently put into production capacity (unit: 10,000 tons)
It’s hard to say in May. Although there is a high probability that new devices will be put on the market, some devices that are running with disease (that is, devices that have reached the maintenance cycle but have not been overhauled because of the high price) It may be that after new production capacity is put into the market and prices fall, maintenance arrangements will still need to be re-planned, which still requires dynamic assessment.
Figure 2 MEG supply balance chart (unit: 10,000 tons)
In the absence of fundamental changes in the EG supply side, we need to wait and see the downstream demand and external conditions in April. From the demand side, since it has been some time since the last procurement node, and after the price of EG dropped by nearly a thousand yuan, the downstream purchasing attitude will certainly be loosened, and the small peak season of yarn will gradually appear in April, and the demand ratio is 3 The probability will increase monthly. Therefore, overall, under the circumstances that EG inventory may further decline in April – with a high probability that it will fall to a new low during the year, the author still holds a certain optimism about the price trend of EG in April.
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