Recently, the market situation has continued to be turbulent!
Saudi oil facilities were raided
Yesterday, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen claimed to use 12 Drones and eight ballistic missiles attacked Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Ras al Tanura, Jazan.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense responded that after the Houthi armed attack, Saudi Arabia will take deterrent actions to protect oil exports.
It is reported that since Saudi Arabia led the Arab coalition to launch military strikes against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen in March 2015, the confrontation between the two sides has continued to escalate. According to The Paper, since March 2021, Saudi Arabia has once again stepped up its attacks on the Houthi armed forces in Yemen. The reason is that the Houthi armed forces continue to use drones to attack targets in Saudi Arabia. Since the beginning of this year, the military confrontation between the Houthis armed forces and the Yemeni coalition government has continued to escalate. The Houthis have stepped up their offensive in northern Yemen, while the multinational coalition has launched air strikes against the Houthis.
The rescue work of the Suez Canal ship will take at least a week
In addition, according to Bloomberg, Efforts to rescue the Suez Canal vessel will take at least a week.
On March 23, a very large container ship accidentally ran aground, causing blockage in Egypt’s Suez Canal. As one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, the Suez Canal connects the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea. It is located at the intersection of Europe, Asia and Africa. About 12% of world trade is transported through here. According to data from the Suez Canal Authority, nearly 19,000 ships passed through the canal in 2020, an average of 51.5 ships per day.
After the accident, it was equivalent to the “precise” cutting off of the Asia-Europe shipping artery, which directly affected the global shipping and bulk commodity trading industries.
Affected by this, the price of U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose sharply by 5.37% that day, reaching a maximum of $61.34 per barrel, while the price of Brent crude oil futures also rose sharply by 6.06% %, rising to a maximum of $64.39/barrel. The price of domestic crude oil futures 2105 contract once rose sharply by 3.5% to 395 yuan/barrel.
As delays continue now, Chris Rogers, chief trade analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence firm Panjiva, said: “Delays are likely to increase costs, Putting more inflationary pressure on supply chains.” “The short-term knock-on effects will increase the likelihood of stock-outs of consumer goods, and the risk that just-in-time manufacturing supply chains, which are struggling due to Brexit and commodity shortages, may face further disruption. ”
Chartered tanker rates have climbed in some areas since the lockdown first emerged. The largest Suezmax ships, which typically transport 1 million barrels through the canal, are now earning about $17,000 a day, the highest prices since June 2020. If more ships are forced to sail around the southern tip of Africa, this will increase rates as sailing times increase.
According to foreign media analysis, the main impact of this incident may be reflected in the refined oil market. Affected by the blockage of the canal, cross-regional trade in refined oil products may be severely hampered.
However, according to Baocheng Futures, even if the Suez Canal channel is blocked for half a month, relying on the Suez-Mediterranean crude oil pipeline, the maximum crude oil transportation capacity will be 2.8 million barrels per day , and can also transport crude oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean in the short term, thereby making up for the loss of maritime shipping capacity. Only when the Suez Canal is blocked for a long time will the restrictions on crude oil supply and transportation be truly felt. In other words, the positive and positive effect of the Suez Canal blockage on crude oil in the short and medium term is relatively limited, and the positive and positive effect of the long-term blockage on crude oil is more obvious.
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