As the novel coronavirus epidemic is gradually brought under control, the resumption of production and work has become the mainstream of the textile market now and in the future. At present, many weaving companies have begun to gradually resume work, and the remaining companies are also taking precautions to prepare for the resumption of work.
In addition to epidemic prevention and control, how the unprecedented market situation this year will lead to fluctuations in raw material prices is also the focus of textile people in the future. When a large number of weaving companies begin to resume work and the operating rate of looms begins to rebound, how will the prices of raw materials change?
After the market opened, the price of polyester raw materials remained calm
First of all, let’s take a look at the changes in PTA futures since the beginning of the year. We can see that after the market opened on February 3, PTA futures experienced a sharp decline for two consecutive days, and then remained at a low level and fluctuated. situation.
The decline in PTA futures after the beginning of the new year represents the market’s concerns about this year’s textile market, and the shocks in the following days are due to the stagnation of trading caused by the closure of the weaving market.
Compared with PTA, the recent price of polyester yarn can be described as “price but no market”. Weaving companies are not operating, and no one will buy yarn at this time. As a result, the rise and fall of polyester prices have lost most of their meaning.
The price of raw materials before the market opened was stable. What factors will mainly affect the price of polyester raw materials after the market opens?
What factors will affect the price changes of polyester raw materials?
International oil prices
Speaking of the price of polyester raw materials, international The impact of oil prices cannot be ignored.
Affected by the market’s downward revision of future economic expectations caused by the pneumonia epidemic in China, international oil prices have shown an overall downward trend since January. Compared with the high point in early January this year, the current decline in international oil prices has exceeded 20%, fully demonstrating the market’s pessimistic expectations.
But the good news is that with the pneumonia epidemic under control and the news that various industries in China have begun to gradually resume work, international oil prices have begun to rebound from lows. On Wednesday, international oil prices rose 3%. On Thursday, international oil prices rose again.
As of the close on the 13th, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by US$0.25 to close at US$51.42 per barrel, an increase of 0.49%. London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery rose $0.55 to close at $56.34 a barrel, an increase of 0.99%.
I believe that as the economic situation continues to recover, the probability of international oil prices rising in the future will be greater than the probability of falling.
Inventory status
If The cost represented by crude oil determines the basic price of polyester raw materials. The amount of polyester yarn inventory determines to a large extent how much profit it can have. Unfortunately, the current inventory situation of polyester raw materials is very unoptimistic.
In 2019, the polyester industry has been plagued by high inventory. The average inventory of polyester factories reached a maximum of 24 days. Coupled with the unfavorable destocking market last year, As of the Spring Festival holiday, the inventory of polyester factories is still at a high level.
Unlike the weaving industry, the polyester industry does not rest during the Chinese New Year due to its particularity , most of the equipment is still in operation, which results in polyester stocks still growing rapidly during the Chinese New Year holiday, which is definitely a very big negative for future raw material prices.
Starting status of weaving enterprises
In addition to polyester inventory, we are also concerned about the progress of weaving enterprises.
Affected by the epidemic, it will be more difficult for weaving companies to start work this year than in previous years. Due to transportation, epidemic prevention and other reasons, there will be a greater shortage of skilled workers this year than in the same period in previous years, which will inevitably lead to difficulties in recruiting workers, thus affecting the recovery of loom operation rates.
In addition, the preparation and implementation of epidemic prevention are the top priority now. It can be said to be a “required course” for every textile company that resumes work, and this requires a lot of manpower. Material resources will also divert some of the energy of enterprises to a large extent, thus affecting the recovery of production capacity.
Order status
In the market Under the general economic environment, the current textile industry is more demand-oriented.
In 2018, pongee and polyester taffeta became popular, the textile market was in short supply, and the price of polyester raw materials was driven up to a sky-high price; in 2019, too many peripheral looms caused As a result of overcapacity, raw material prices have also begun to plummet…
Therefore, the original�The price depends largely on the order situation in the market.
The good news is that because of the irreplaceability of China’s textile industry in the world, the “suspension” of China’s textile industry for nearly a month has caused a backlog of a large number of orders, and these The backlog of orders is the guarantee that the textile industry will quickly get on the right track.
I believe that when orders start to come in like snowflakes, market confidence will be greatly boosted and raw material prices will rise accordingly.
The editor said
小 The editor believes that during the initial period of resumption of work, weaving companies are still in the wait-and-see stage, and the loom operating rate is slowly recovering. The price of polyester raw materials will begin to fall slightly due to excessive inventory, and the inventory of gray fabrics of weaving companies will increase rapidly. consumption; and after a period of time, as orders are placed one after another, the operating rate of weaving enterprises rises to a higher level, and market confidence is boosted. At that time, raw material prices will begin to rebound, and the rebound time may be the first half of the textile industry in March. The time when the traditional peak season begins. Of course, the above prediction is only the editor’s personal opinion and is for reference only. Cloth bosses can reasonably arrange raw material purchasing strategies according to market changes after the market opens.
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