Last week, at the end of an article, the editor posted a small survey on when domestic trade demand will recover. More than 300 textile workers people participated in this survey.
The results show that 40.67% of textile people believe that domestic trade demand will improve between August and October, and 15.61% of textile people believe that it will improve in At the end of 2020, 11.51% of textile people believed that it would be in the first half of next year, 11.46% of textile people believed that it would be in the second half of next year, and 21.11% of textile people said that the time point would be unpredictable.
It can be seen that most textile people believe that although the current market situation is poor, there is still a possibility of improvement in domestic trade, and the period from August to October is a relatively good time.
The operating rate has declined seriously, and overcapacity may improve
After the year, the domestic epidemic broke out and the overseas epidemic continued to ferment, causing the textile market to basically stagnate. The textile market score of 3 points depends on domestic trade and 7 points on foreign trade, but now neither domestic trade nor foreign trade is satisfactory, which can be said to be very poor. During the interview, many weaving bosses said that they currently have no work to do, they are making inventory every day, and some machines have been shut down. If the market situation is not good this month, they will take an indefinite holiday.
Mr. Shen, who owns forty or fifty machines but has an inventory of 2 million meters, lamented: “They say we have to take at least a week’s holiday on May Day, but we I probably won’t be able to hold on until then. It’s not that the raw materials have been woven, but that the gray fabrics have been piled up in the warehouse! I wanted to hold on for a while, but I am weaving inventory every day, and money is tied up in it. Now there is no place to put the cloth. It is really difficult to do it. It can’t go on any longer.”
According to the sample companies tested by China Silk Capital Network, the current gray fabric days of weaving companies in Shengze area have risen to 42-43 days, which is basically the same as Inventories during last year’s off-season were flat, showing high levels.
High inventory has caused many weaving manufacturers to reduce production , production has been suspended. At present, the operating rate of weaving manufacturers in Shengze is only 67%. When the market was at its worst last year, the operating rate remained above 70%. On the other hand, many weaving manufacturers have reduced operations due to financial and other pressures, but the basic market demand still exists, production capacity has been reduced, and competition has decreased. Other companies that have survived may be able to “kill” a way out.
In the era of traffic, live streaming brings online shopping
In When the market first resumed work, due to the epidemic, the spring and summer fabrics that were supposed to be hot in February and March were not effectively released. Although the orders from the previous year were not cancelled, the epidemic caused the resumption of work to be repeatedly postponed, resulting in spring and summer fabrics. The return rate was not high and did not meet Boss Bu’s expectations. There will be very few orders received after the new year. They are basically orders from the year before, and there are not even many proofs.
Although the market was basically cool in the first half of the year, many cloth bosses still believe that end consumer demand still exists.
“I wanted to prepare a few sets of New Year’s ‘battle suits’, but who would have thought that a single pair of pajamas could carry me through the entire Spring Festival.” This widely circulated joke Behind the scenes, it reflects the crisis of the entire apparel industry in special times. 2020 is a year where the clothing industry has suffered from leakage and continuous rain – it just suffered from the warm winter last year, and the Spring Festival sales season has been made worse by the prolonged epidemic, which not only hindered the destocking process, but also disrupted the launch of new spring models and Brought new spring stock.
Online transformation has become an inevitable issue, and live broadcasting is the most fashionable. In recent months, Douyin, as a traffic pool, has become an excellent marketing position for clothing companies. A clothing store in Zhengzhou launched a live broadcast for two weeks, and its turnover exceeded 2 million; and a clothing proprietress located in Guangzhou’s 13th Bank and 10 stall proprietresses jointly broadcast live, and achieved a sales of 1.22 million in one day on March 18… It can be seen that the epidemic situation Although the cold winter for the clothing industry has been prolonged, consumer demand still exists. It just depends on how you use to get consumers to pay.
GDP has a historic decline, but the overall performance is stable
On the morning of the 17th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference Press conference to introduce the performance of the national economy in the first quarter of 2020. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that according to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first quarter was 20,650.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% based on comparable prices.
Although the epidemic has caused a decline in economic data, this is the first negative growth since GDP statistics began in 1992. It is also the first time that China’s economy has fallen into a quarterly recession since the reform and opening up. shrink. But compared with the United States, the largest economy, it is already much better. Some experts predict that U.S. GDP will fall by 9% in the first quarter of 2020, and the decline will reach an astonishing 34% in the second quarter, the worst figures since World War II. Morgan StanleyThe growth rate given by �� is even lower, and they predict that US GDP may decline by -38% in the second quarter of 2020.
Although the epidemic has caused a decline in my country’s economy, looking around the world, my country’s economy is still operating smoothly and developing. If residents have money, they will naturally spend it. In the first half of the year, most people work and rest at home, and the demand for clothing is reduced. However, as the epidemic is effectively controlled, consumer demand for clothing may rebound with a retaliation in the second half of the year.
In a conversation with a cloth boss, a boss who has been running a factory for more than ten years said: “Whether the market is good this year mainly depends on the second half of August. It’s October. I still can’t turn off all the machines if I don’t have any orders. After working for more than ten years, I still want to have some hope and don’t want to just give up.”
In addition to nearly 40% of textile workers who believe that demand will improve between August and October, the second largest share believes that the improvement in domestic trade is unpredictable or even longer. Currently, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeds 2 million, with the United States ranking first, followed closely by Spain, Italy, France, and Germany. As my country’s largest textile export destinations, the epidemic is severe and it is unknown when demand will recover. Domestic and foreign trade are like two legs of a person. If one leg is lame, how can the other leg walk well?
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