On the 14th, March trade data was released, and both import and export data were better than market expectations! (Netizens complained: Are you in the same world as me?)
According to customs statistics, in March this year, my country’s foreign trade imports Exports were 2.45 trillion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed 8.7 percentage points from January to February. Among them, exports were 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.5%; imports were 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4%.
In the first quarter, my country’s total import and export value of goods trade was 6.57 trillion yuan, down 6.4% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 3.33 trillion yuan, down 11.4%; imports were 3.24 trillion yuan, down 0.7%; the trade surplus was 98.33 billion yuan, down 80.6%. Exports of seven major categories of labor-intensive products, including textiles and clothing, were 596.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.3%, accounting for 17.9%.
The current international epidemic is still accelerating its spread. The shrinking of the international market will inevitably have an impact on textile foreign trade exports, and problems such as a decrease in new orders in the foreign trade market will follow. For textile companies, the difficulties they are facing now cannot be underestimated:
WTO: Global trade volume will shrink by 13% to 32%
Recently, the WTO analyzed that the disruption of the global supply chain and the sharp decrease in demand have had a negative impact, and the impact of the new crown epidemic is likely to exceed that of 2009 after the world financial crisis (a 13% reduction) Very high.
They put forward two expectations: If it is a “pessimistic expectation” that the sharp decline in trade continues for a long time and the subsequent recovery is slow, trade volume will decrease by 32%. This would be the worst outcome since World War II. On the other hand, even the “optimistic expectation” that trade will decline sharply but begin to recover in the second half of 2020 will be reduced by 13%.
No matter what the expectation is, the world will face a double-digit shrinkage in trade volume , which is obviously different from the market situation encountered by SARS in 2003. At that time, global trade was in a period of rapid growth. After the epidemic ended, the market soon ushered in a retaliatory consumption rebound, and the foreign trade market was booming.
A home textile fabrics boss who experienced SARS recalled: “The market suddenly improved in the second half of 2003. At that time, as long as there was fabric, it could be sold. At that time, it was completely It’s a seller’s market.” But regarding the current epidemic, he feels very panicked.
According to statistics from retail consulting organizations, as many as 190,000 stores in the United States closed during the epidemic, accounting for 50% of the retail business area in the United States. Judging from the current development of the epidemic, currently The global economy is severely weakened, and more and more foreign countries are applying for relief benefits. It will be difficult for the market outlook to improve consumption intentions. If consumption does not increase, it will be difficult to drive demand.
The current situation of foreign trade: there are no orders to accept and the status quo has not improved
It is now mid-April. It has been a full month since the outbreak of the overseas epidemic and the cancellation of concentrated orders by foreign trade companies. No matter how many foreign trade orders were received before the year, after one month of execution , there are not many orders left on hand.
A friend who is engaged in foreign trade said: “We still have orders. There were more orders a year ago, but there will probably be no more in the future.”
A foreign trade friend who makes imitation silk said that this year’s foreign trade spring and summer fabrics have shrunk by half. “Currently, we are in a state of no orders, and there are no customers to inquire about follow-up orders or re-orders. They just put the news to let us not Ship.”
For the current foreign trade salesmen, in addition to immersing themselves in searching for various protective equipment resources and obtaining new profit points, they are currently in a semi-holiday state. In addition, there are not many autumn and winter fabric proofing and sample operations that should have been carried out in previous years. The sharp decrease in orders and the lack of follow-up motivation are also evident in the dyeing factory. In April, dyeing factory operations also plummeted, with the average operating rate falling to about 60%.
According to a dyeing factory staff, their dyeing factory has seen a significant increase in orders since mid-March. In the early days, there were still crowds of people queuing up, but now they are waiting for work to be done, and there is not much lofting work in small tanks. This is a rare phenomenon that he has encountered in the ten years since he started working.
At present, the impact of the new crown epidemic on the market is still expanding. As long as the epidemic situation does not improve for one day, the order situation will be difficult to improve. At this stage, the main hot products on the market are related to protective equipment, such as melt-blown fabrics, polypropylene, non-woven fabrics, PE films, etc., all of which are lined up in cash in the market, while other conventional textile products have no orders released, so When overseas economies recover is crucial!
Trump: Some states may be able to restart their economies before May 1
According to reports, Trump stated at a regular briefing at the White House on the 14th that he believed that some states could lift strict social isolation measures by the end of April. Its economy is expected to restart before May 1.
Although I don’t know how much hype this statement contains, we can see the urgency of economic recovery in the United States, the world’s largest economy. In addition, European countries are gradually announcing plans to unblock:
Germany will end its blockade measures on April 19, Spain will end its state of emergency after April 26, and the Czech Republic will relax some of its blockade measures at the end of April. Austria will gradually relax the strict anti-epidemic measures currently implemented after mid-April…
This proves that under optimistic expectations, foreign markets may gradually open up after April, delayed by 1 Economic activities for many months will also be launched one after another, which will have a certain stimulating effect on textiles and clothing. Of course, the premise of this good news is that the epidemic is properly controlled, but from the current situation, it is difficult to say that it is good!
Of course, it has been reported in the market recently that many textile bosses are depressed in their main business and have side businesses blooming everywhere. In this regard, the editor believes that textile bosses still need to pay attention to the following issues:
1. Regarding the switch to production of protective equipment: Although protective equipment has become popular recently, there will always be a surplus as more people come to eat. In addition, the quality of the products on the market currently varies. Qi, the country has begun to introduce relevant strict control policies, so you need to be cautious when entering the market.
2. Regarding bargain hunting for raw materials: Crude oil is still at a historical low recently. U.S. crude oil has been hovering at the price of 20 US dollars, but the price of polyester filament may still be on the way to bottom. After all, Major polyester manufacturers are full of inventory, so don’t accidentally become someone else’s “takeover”.
The flowers are blooming on the road, and you can return home slowly! </p
