International oil prices fell on Wednesday, ending a five-day winning streak. As of the close of the day, the June NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract fell by US$0.57 to close at US$23.99 per barrel, a decrease of 2.32%. ICE Brent crude oil futures July contract fell $1.25 to close at $29.72 a barrel, a decrease of 4.04%.
The crude oil market is once again riding a “roller coaster”, and the futures market is also operating in a volatile manner. On the 7th, PTA and ethylene glycol futures ended their gains and maintained weak and stable operation. The main 2009 contract of PTA futures closed at 3,498 yuan/ton, and the main 2009 contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 3,690 yuan/ton. Compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day, they both dropped to varying degrees.
The price of polyester yarn increased by 100-600 yuan during the week
Polyester filament has been the most popular recently. After a long period of silence, polyester filament finally experienced a “skyrocketing” market during the May Day period, and the prices of various products increased to varying degrees. On the 7th, although most polyester manufacturers quoted stable prices, some manufacturers still raised their prices slightly. Although the current resistance to high prices in the downstream has gradually heated up, there are many expectations for a small supplementary increase in partial transactions.
On the 7th, some manufacturers’ quotations were raised again: the price of polyester yarn from a factory in Taicang increased by 50-100 yuan/ton; DTY coarse denier from a major mainstream factory in Shengze, Jiangsu Some parts increased by 100 yuan/ton; the polyester yarn part of a factory in Xiaoshan increased by 50 yuan/ton; Zhangjiagang Tianxin Youguang FDY increased by 50 yuan/ton…
Polyester prices have had a good start in May. What is the most direct result?
Outbreak of production and sales
The most direct response to production and sales It shows the degree of attention of the weaving market to raw materials. Some time ago, stimulated by the preferential promotions of polyester manufacturers and geopolitics in the Middle East, international crude oil prices surged, and polyester yarn production and sales exceeded 100%. However, the market popularity waned rapidly, with production and sales exceeding 100 “one-day tour” prices. However, the price of polyester yarn has increased this time, and some polyester manufacturers even closed the market and hesitated to sell on the basis of the price increase. This is a rare scene in recent months.
On the 6th, polyester filament production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas heated up. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers were 140%-180%, and some were relatively A good factory can achieve 300% production and sales.
Remove the library quickly
Not long ago, with the sluggish production and sales of polyester filament, the biggest headache for polyester manufacturers was inventory pressure. The high inventory levels in March and April almost exceeded the high inventory levels during the Spring Festival. In this “gold, three, silver and four” market where there should be no inventory pressure, such high inventory really doubles the pressure on polyester manufacturers.
Driven by high production and sales for many days, the high inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers was finally relieved and fell rapidly. Judging from statistical data, the overall inventory of the polyester market has dropped by 2 days to 24-34 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated in 17-23 days, FDY inventory has dropped to around 18-24 days, while DTY inventory has dropped to around 18-24 days. to about 25-35 days.
This time the polyester filament The “big explosion” in production and sales, in the final analysis, benefits from the demand cooperation of weaving manufacturers.
On the one hand, it is the rigid purchase of weaving manufacturers. Nowadays, the relatively low inventory of raw materials of weaving manufacturers is a big influencing factor. In the past six months, as raw material prices have been slowly declining, downstream weaving manufacturers are generally more cautious in purchasing raw materials and are not very enthusiastic about stocking up. Most of them purchase on demand and have no plans to stock up. Although the current operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remains below 70%, due to insufficient early stocking of raw materials, the consumption of raw materials has triggered a wave of rigid purchases.
On the other hand, the mentality of buying up rather than buying down has triggered the low purchasing enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers. In the early stage, the price of raw materials continued to bottom out, making weaving manufacturers always bearish on raw materials. There were also several small increases in raw materials that triggered bargain-hunting in the market, but it turned out that they were basically “buying the dip halfway up the mountain.” The price of raw materials was not the lowest, only lower. However, this time the price of raw materials suddenly increased sharply, and even the market was closed and reluctant to sell. Driven by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, downstream weaving manufacturers will more or less replenish some raw materials, stimulating purchasing enthusiasm.
On the 7th, the production and sales of polyester filament dropped significantly. The production and sales of mainstream large factories were concentrated at around 30-50%, and some better factories were around 80%, and some could reach 150%. It can be seen that while there are still no major benefits for the terminal, downstream procurement is slightly weak after the stocking up. It can be said that the production and sales of polyester yarn are both successful and failed.��
The market is also concerned about whether the price of polyester yarn can drive up the price of gray fabrics.
The person in charge of an enterprise engaged in domestic sales and export said: “It is difficult! Although the price of polyester yarn has increased significantly in the past few days, the price of our gray fabrics There is still no change. Taking 75D double-layer four-sided bullet as an example, it is still around 4.9 yuan/meter. The market situation has not really improved yet, and the inventory is still so large, there is no confidence to increase prices.”
At the same time, Mr. Zhang, who specializes in nylon spinning and Oxford cloth, also said: “There is a lag in the price increase of gray fabrics, and it will take a few days for the increase in polyester prices to be reflected in the gray fabric market. However, There is little possibility of a price increase. Orders have not improved significantly compared with the previous period. There is no demand, so price increases are meaningless.”
Postscript
According to statistics from China Silk Capital Network, the current inventory of gray fabrics in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still around 42-43 days, which is at a high level. The operating rate of looms is at a low level in the same period last year. It can be seen that the current order situation in the market is still poor, and it is relatively difficult to destock the weaving market.
It can be seen that price increases without demand are in vain.
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