The May Day holiday has just ended, and I was shocked when I saw the price of polyester products.
A major mainstream factory in Shengze, Jiangsu has increased by 300-600 so far during the May Day holiday; a major mainstream polyester factory in Tongxiang has increased by 100-550 during the May Day holiday; a factory in Zhejiang has increased by 100-550 during the DTY holiday. 250-350; the polyester yarn price of another Xiaoshan factory has increased by 350-450 so far during the holiday. There are even some polyester factories that are selling to the end of the market.
PTA, as of May 6th 15 At the end of the day, the PTA futures 2009 contract closed at 3,500 points, an increase of 80 points or 2.34% from the previous trading day.
Ethylene glycol, as of May 6 At 15:00, the ethylene glycol futures 2009 contract closed at 3697 points, an increase of 69 points or 1.9% from the previous trading day.
In terms of production and sales, on May 4, affected by raw materials Affected by the news of price increases, polyester production and sales once reached nearly 300%, and some polyester manufacturers directly closed their sales. On May 6, the average production and sales of polyester also reached about 160%.
The editor can’t help but wonder. Before the holiday, polyester manufacturers were still There was so much mourning, so why did the market take a 180-degree turn just after the five-day holiday?
The production reduction agreement takes effect, and international oil prices double
With the arrival of May, the production reduction agreement of OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries has taken effect, and many parts of the world are gradually restarting their economies, and international oil prices have ushered in skyrocketing.
As of the close of trading on May 6, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures for delivery in June rose 20.45% to close at US$24.56/barrel; delivery in July The price of Brent crude oil futures rose 13.86% to close at $30.97 per barrel.
Among them, WTI crude oil futures have risen for five consecutive trading days, and Brent crude oil futures have risen for six consecutive trading days. Compared with a week ago, WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 99%; Brent crude oil futures prices also increased by more than 90% from the lowest of less than US$16/barrel on April 22.
As the most basic raw material for polyester products, the price of crude oil has almost doubled, which will naturally drive the rise of various products in the downstream polyester industry chain.
700,000 tons PTA device fire, Giving the market a reason to increase prices
On April 30, the PTA device refining unit of Ningbo Liwan New Materials Co., Ltd. in Ningbo Daxie Development Zone occurred. The fire, which has an annual production capacity of 700,000 tons, killed two people on site.
The annual PTA production capacity of 700,000 tons is naturally nothing in front of PTA’s huge production capacity and record-breaking inventory. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, , as of May 1, PTA social inventory was about 2.38 million tons, still at a historically high level.
But sometimes, the market wants to increase prices At that time, the difference between increasing prices and not increasing prices was just a reason, and the explosion of the 700,000-ton PTA plant in Ningbo gave the market just such a reason to increase prices.
Raw material inventories are at low levels, and weaving companies take the opportunity to restock
In market research before the holidays, small businesses The editor learned that due to the high inventory of gray fabrics, tight capital chains, and almost stagnant downstream demand, a large number of weaving companies chose to take a holiday on May Day, with the holiday duration ranging from 3 to 7 days.
And because the price of polyester filament has dropped sharply since the beginning of this year, setting new historical lows again and again, cloth bosses are afraid to buy raw materials in large quantities for fear of “buying the dip.” Copied halfway up the mountain”, so the inventory of polyester yarn is relatively small.
After the crude oil price increased this time, some cloth bosses took the opportunity to replenish their supplies. They may not replenish much, just 15-30 days of demand, but they cannot sustain the backlog. Less makes more, and when a large number of weaving companies choose to restock, it is only natural that the market will improve.
May Day consumption gradually recovers, domestic demand The potential is gradually released
This year’s May Day labor holiday has been extended to 5 days, which is longer than in previous years. Many people choose to travel. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism��, from May 1 to May 5, the country received a total of 115 million domestic tourists and achieved domestic tourism revenue of 47.56 billion yuan, which was about 40% higher than that of the May Day holiday in 2019.
We have also seen in the news that due to epidemic restrictions, tickets for popular attractions such as the Forbidden City have been fully booked as soon as they are launched. It can be said that “it is hard to get a ticket” “.
From this phenomenon, we can also see that people’s desire for consumption is constantly recovering. When external demand is still unclear, domestic consumption is still unclear. It has gradually started to pick up, and as the demand for clothing is the first priority in “food, clothing, housing and transportation”, it is natural to feel the changes at the first time.
The future is bright and the road is tortuous. For textile companies, the next biggest goal is still to survive. To survive better, you need to keep abreast of market changes. What should you focus on next?
What should we focus on next?
Changes in operating rates of weaving enterprises
Although the market has begun to pick up compared to the previous period, compared with normal conditions, the current weaving market is still in a situation of oversupply, with high inventory of gray fabrics, The current situation of accumulated inventory has not been fundamentally reversed.
Under such circumstances, the number of weaving enterprises that reduce operations or even close factories may increase. Once such a situation occurs, no matter whether it is for polyester The factory’s inventory or polyester filament is a big blow.
Fluctuations in international oil prices
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in March and the beginning of price wars between oil-producing countries, the amplitude of crude oil fluctuations has refreshed history time and time again, and there have even been negative oil prices. A miraculous phenomenon, and in the past week, the price of crude oil has nearly doubled.
When the price of crude oil fluctuates, the price of polyester raw materials will inevitably be affected. For textile companies, it is necessary to follow the hot spots to purchase raw materials that are urgently needed. , but don’t go all-in, it may be a way to stop losses.
Resumption of work abroad
At present, about half of the states in the United States have gradually entered the stage of resumption of work and production; in Europe, countries with severe epidemics such as Italy and Spain seem to have begun to gradually “unblock” “.
The European and American markets are the largest markets for China’s textile exports. If the European and American markets can recover, it will definitely be good news. However, with the restart of economic activities, the COVID-19 epidemic has also rebounded in some states in the United States. There is also the risk of the epidemic in Europe breaking out again after the resumption of work. Therefore, it remains to be seen how the follow-up development will be.
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