2020 is coming to an end, and the issue that textile companies are most concerned about at this stage may be whether they should stock up.
Last week, China Silk City Network conducted a market survey on future market forecasts, with more than 200 textile practitioners participating in the survey. Nearly 60% of the textile workers believe that the foreign trade market will pick up next spring, and nearly half of the textile workers are considering stocking up in the near future.
And at this moment , the biggest benefit in the textile market in 2020 suddenly came to the market.
On the 15th, the signing ceremony of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was held via video, and the economic and trade ministers of the 15 member states officially signed the agreement. The total GDP of the 15 member countries exceeds US$25 trillion, covering 30% of the world’s population. The signing of the agreement marks the successful launch of the construction of the East Asia Free Trade Area, which has the largest population, the most diverse membership structure and the greatest development potential in the world.
Directly increase the competitiveness of textile enterprises
After the signing of RCEP, the changes in the textile market can be said to be immediate.
When we buy clothes now, we see labels on many clothes showing that the clothes are produced in countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia. This is exactly where China’s textile industry has been heading to Southeast Asian countries. Transfer results.
In fact, what is being transferred out at this stage is mainly garment manufacturing and other types of work that are extremely sensitive to labor prices. This transfer is the inevitable result of the transformation and upgrading of China’s textile industry. Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions have also experienced this stage before.
As for chemical fiber raw material production, gray fabric weaving, fabric printing and dyeing finishing and other highly technical links, a large amount of production capacity is still retained in China. And with the continuous improvement of technology level in recent years, China’s proportion in the R&D and production of mid-to-high-end fabrics has also become larger and larger.
Before the agreement was signed, if Southeast Asian countries wanted to produce a piece of clothing, they needed to import fabrics from China, and this part of the fabrics needed to pay tariffs, and some such as wool and cotton Imports of raw materials from abroad also require tariffs, but after the agreement is signed, these tariffs can be reduced or reduced, which directly strengthens the competitiveness of textile companies.
The rise of China is unstoppable
The main tone of the world economy now is the rise of China, but the United States has adopted various means to ensure its hegemony, including the Sino-US trade war triggered by Trump and the ban on high-tech enterprises represented by Huawei.
Prior to this, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) launched by the Obama administration was also an important strategy for the United States to contain China. However, due to different ideas, Trump soon after taking office Selected “Leave the group”.
But the US election is over, and Biden will most likely win the election and become the new president of the United States. As the Vice President of the United States during the Obama administration, Biden’s diplomatic philosophy is in line with Obama’s, so re-signing the TPP agreement can be said to be a high probability event.
China signed RCEP before TPP. Major export markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia are all members of RCEP, which means it has gained an advantage in international competition. China’s peaceful rise will More unstoppable.
Adds fire to the market
Some time ago, there were rumors in the market that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, some foreign trade orders flowed from India and Southeast Asian countries to China, which also added fuel to the hot market in October.
No matter how Europe closes its cities, the rigid demand for textiles and clothing is still there, and this demand will inevitably be converted into orders. However, now Southeast Asian countries are unable to accept some of these orders due to the new crown epidemic, and Globally, only China can fulfill these orders at a reasonable price with high quality and quantity.
Therefore, this part of the order will inevitably be transferred to China. After the signing of RCEP, the import cost of raw materials decreased, while the export profits of fabrics and garments increased.
According to microeconomic theory, within a reasonable range, price is inversely proportional to market demand. The signing of RCEP is equivalent to a disguised reduction in the export price of Chinese textiles, which may bring many new orders.
Polyester market reaction lags
But we also found that although the news of RCEP spread overwhelmingly, there was no very big feedback from the polyester market and the downstream weaving market. This is mainly due to the following reasons:
Some companies want to purchase raw materials, but are limited by insufficient funds on hand and are unable to do so.
The impact of the agreement is subtle and may not It brings a large number of orders in a short period of time, so it will not bring direct stimulation to the market.
Due to the sluggish terminal demand this year, the market has been hyped many times. The latest market price of the new crown vaccine Just last week, downstream textile companies had some resistance to this.
But no matter what, although the new crown epidemic is still very serious worldwide, the new crown epidemic will always be controlled Live. With most people in the market optimistic about the market next spring, and with the orders brought by RCEP to enhance market competitiveness, it may be time to put the stocking up of raw materials on the agenda.</p
