On April 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a new “World Economic Outlook Report”, predicting that the global economy will shrink by 3% this year, a recession far exceeding the economic downturn caused by the international financial crisis in 2008. The worst global economic recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Although the IMF gave a pessimistic forecast for the global economy, investors digested a new round of corporate financial reports and the impact of OPEC+’s historic production reduction agreement. At the same time, Trump’s possible economic restart plan and optimistic expectations for the future of the new coronavirus epidemic have boosted the market. U.S. stocks collectively opened higher and rose sharply in early trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by more than 400 points.
U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday. As of the close, the Dow rose 558.99 points, or 2.39%, to 23949.76 points; the Nasdaq rose 323.32 points, or 3.95%, to 8515.74 points; the S&P 500 index rose 84.43 points, or 3.06%, to 2846.06 points. The Nasdaq was the last to rebound by more than 20% from its lows. Previously, the Dow and S&P 500 had both rebounded by more than 20% from their recent lows.
The VIX fear index fell below 40 for the first time since early March, a drop of 7%.
US and Brent crude oil futures closed sharply lower. WTI May crude oil futures closed down US$2.30, or 10.26%, to US$20.11 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for June closed down $2.14, or 6.47%, to $29.60 per barrel.
Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil sold to Asia in May. The price is at a discount of US$7.3/barrel to the average price of Oman/Dubai. The discount is a record and higher than It fell by US$4.2/barrel in April.
WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris said at a press conference on the 14th that the current epidemic situation in Europe is mixed, with new cases beginning to appear in Italy and Spain. It is slowly decreasing, but new cases are increasing in countries such as Turkey and the United Kingdom. As far as a single country is concerned, the current COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is the most severe in the world. The WHO believes that the new coronavirus epidemic has not yet reached its peak.
At the White House press conference on the 14th local time, Trump announced that the United States would suspend funding for the World Health Organization. He accused the World Health Organization of failing to share epidemic information in a timely manner and failing to provide timely epidemic prevention measures. Policy recommendations, failure to declare a “global pandemic” in a timely manner, etc. “After all this time, it’s time to hold them accountable,” Trump said.
According to the global real-time statistics system of new coronavirus pneumonia data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on April 14, a total of new coronavirus pneumonia has been reported in the United States There were 602,989 confirmed cases, 25,575 deaths, and a total of 3,081,620 tests. In the past 24 hours, there were 25,682 new confirmed cases and 2,356 new deaths in the United States. In New York State, where the epidemic is most severe, there are currently 202,208 confirmed cases and 10,834 deaths. There are currently 13 states in the United States with tens of thousands of confirmed cases. Some media analysis pointed out that the growth rate of New York State is slowing down, but the growth rate of the capital Washington, DC and its surrounding states of Maryland and Virginia is accelerating, and may be the next hot spot.
The production reduction agreement has no “effectiveness”, is there no hope for oil prices to turn around?
On Tuesday, INE crude oil’s main contract SC2006 closed at 280.8 yuan/barrel, down 13.5 yuan, or 4.59%.
US and Brent crude oil futures also closed sharply lower. WTI May crude oil futures closed down US$2.30, or 10.26%, to US$20.11 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for June closed down $2.14, or 6.47%, to $29.60 per barrel.
“Recently, the crude oil market conditions are still based on digestion of Monday’s results The production reduction agreement is the main one.” Pan Xiang, a crude oil researcher at Huatai Futures Research Institute, told the Futures Daily reporter that the response of oil prices to this production reduction agreement was very dull, and there was a certain decline. He believes that in addition to the early benefits that have been realized in advance, the effective production reduction agreement of this production reduction agreement is lower than expected. Data show that since 1996, OPEC has experienced several large-scale production cuts. The previous largest was the 5 million barrels/day production cut from 2001 to 2002, followed by the 4.7 million barrels/day during the 2008 financial crisis. Days of production reduction.
“However, this production reduction is based on production in October 2018, not the first quarter of 2020 production. So although this production cut nominally reaches 970 barrels/day, it is actually only about 7 million barrels/day.” He explained that this intensity is obviously lower than market expectations, and it is difficult to offset the contraction of global demand in the second quarter. . According to Pan Xiang, relevant agencies predict that the demand drop will be approximately 20 to 25 million barrels per day. It can be said that this production reduction agreement can only slow down the speed of inventory accumulation.
In addition, the market currently has doubts about the effectiveness of this production reduction agreement. Some developed countries may increase strategic reserve inventories, and attention needs to be paid to the IEA strategic reserve purchase plan on Wednesday, but the impact on oil prices is expected to be relatively limited. Pan Xiang believes that in the near future, in addition to the compliance with the implementation of future production cuts, we must also pay attention to the development of the epidemic and changes in global crude oil inventories. From the current point of view, the crude oil market, especially the spot market, is still weak. U.S. oil has been nearly US$7 per barrel lower in recent months than in the following month. “This spread reflects��They are responsible for this.”
On the 12th local time, Stanley Chera, a New York real estate developer and Trump friend, died of COVID-19. He was 78 years old.
Due to optimistic investor sentiment, U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, and all three major stock indexes entered a technical bull market. As of the close, the Dow rose 558.99 points, or 2.39%. reported 23949.76 points; the Nasdaq rose 323.32 points, or 3.95%, to 8515.74 points; the S&P 500 index rose 84.43 points, or 3.06%, to 2846.06 points. The Nasdaq was the last to rebound from its lows by more than 20%, after the Dow, S&P The 500 index has rebounded more than 20% from recent lows.
New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo (Andrew Cuomo) is optimistic about the epidemic in New York State, saying that the number of deaths on Tuesday is trending higher. Yu Pingping, New York’s coronavirus hospitalization rate remains low.
Statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of 22:00 on April 14, Beijing time, 41. A total of 1,942,360 confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia were reported globally, and 121,726 patients died. The most serious epidemic situation is still the United States. The 2-6th place is still all European countries, namely Spain (172,541 cases), Italy (159,516 cases), France (137,887 cases), Germany (130,434 cases), and the United Kingdom (94,823 cases).
According to the real-time statistical system of global new coronavirus pneumonia data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States , as of 6:00 pm Eastern Time on April 14, a total of 602,989 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia, 25,575 deaths, and a total of 3,081,620 tests were reported in the United States. In the past 24 hours, there were 25,682 new confirmed cases and 2,356 new deaths in the United States. In New York State, the most severely affected state, currently has a total of 202,208 confirmed cases and 10,834 deaths. There are currently 13 states with tens of thousands of confirmed cases in the United States. Some media analysis pointed out that the growth rate of New York State is slowing down, but the capital Washington, DC and its The growth rate in the surrounding states of Maryland and Virginia is accelerating and may be the next hot spot.</p
