At present, China’s anti-epidemic prevention and control work has made phased progress, but the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is still spreading rapidly overseas, and other regions such as Europe and the United States have become the new “epicenters” of the epidemic. For foreign trade companies, there is a “shortage of people” in the first half and a “shortage of orders” in the second half, making the road to recovery extremely difficult.
Global trade has declined, and the foreign trade industry has been under pressure
Since March, overseas epidemics have shown a pandemic trend, and production and consumption in various affected countries have The stock market is shrinking, the stock market fluctuates frequently, trade activities are significantly reduced, and the risk of global economic recession continues to accumulate. International institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have lowered their forecasts for global economic growth this year. The WTO predicts that global trade will decline sharply this year.
Li Yang, deputy director of the Industrial Investment Research Office of the Saidi Think Tank Planning Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, analyzed that the epidemic in European and American countries is currently in an outbreak period, and the economies of these countries in recent years have The situation was not good to begin with. After the outbreak, a large number of factories shut down and consumption stagnated. It is expected that Chinese products will experience a significant shrinkage in demand in these markets throughout this year.
Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS, also holds the same view. He admitted that although economic activities began to gradually resume at the end of February, the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic will still last for some time, and the disruption of global supply chains and trade logistics may also increase, putting further pressure on China’s import and export activities.
Relevant investigations show that thousands of domestic foreign trade companies have been forced to postpone shipments and foreign exchange collections, and even some orders have been transferred. March to May every year is the peak period for export orders, but many foreign trade companies have experienced varying degrees of decline in new orders, and logistics congestion has also changed from domestic to international. Ports in many places in Europe and the United States have been closed, routes have been grounded, and air transport capacity has been reduced. Half, the cost increased significantly. Some high-tech middleware and new materials face the risk of supply cuts, doubling the pressure on the foreign trade industry.
The “Belt and Road” trade cooperation is highly resilient
The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on import and export trade can be clearly seen in the data released by the General Administration of Customs. In the first two months of this year, China’s foreign trade experienced a significant decline. In US dollars, total imports and exports fell by 11% year-on-year, and exports fell by 17.2%.
However, at the same time, the total trade volume between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” bucked the trend and increased by 0.4%, accounting for 31.7% of China’s total foreign trade, 3.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, becoming a trend under the epidemic. A rare bright spot in foreign trade.
In addition, the Ministry of Commerce announced in late February that the overall progress of the “Belt and Road” cooperation projects was stable and there were no large-scale delays due to the new coronavirus epidemic. . A set of data released by the China Railway Group on April 3 showed that in the first quarter, a total of 1,941 China-Europe freight trains were run and 174,000 TEUs were sent, a year-on-year increase of 15% and 18% respectively. The comprehensive heavy box rate reached 98.1%. The number of runs and cargo Sending volume has grown steadily. The smooth trade under the “One Belt, One Road” initiative demonstrates the strong vitality of the Chinese economy and injects confidence and motivation into the recovery of foreign trade companies.
Xiong Wei, director of Deutsche Bank’s “One Belt, One Road” office, said that the influence of China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative has far exceeded expectations from the perspective of geographical coverage and economic effects. He pointed out that although the new coronavirus epidemic is affecting the global economic situation, trade exchanges have not been interrupted, “This also includes the role played by the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative.”
Focus on “One Belt and One Road” “All the way”, all regions support the recovery of foreign trade
Foreign trade is the frontier of my country’s opening up to the outside world, an important way to promote economic globalization, and an important link to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation. After the outbreak, in order to reduce the negative impact of the epidemic on foreign trade, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Central Bank, the Customs, the Council for the Promotion of International Trade, the Credit Insurance Corporation and other departments have introduced supportive policies. Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Gansu, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Jiangxi and other places have also successively introduced specific measures to help foreign trade companies get out of difficulties.
In the recent “One Belt, One Road” work plans that have been introduced one after another in various places, stabilizing foreign trade is also the focus of their attention.
In the “2020 Work Points for Zhejiang Province to Build an Important Hub for the “Belt and Road”” issued by Zhejiang Province, it is clearly mentioned that it is necessary to comprehensively implement the new policy of stabilizing foreign trade, strengthen the layout and cooperation of the global industrial chain, and optimize the “go “Go out” service policy, promote the implementation of factor support policies, and strengthen financial policy service guarantees.
The “2020 Work Plan for Promoting the “One Belt and One Road” and the Construction of Inland Open Economic Pilot Zones” issued by Ningxia mentioned that it is necessary to actively develop new business forms such as cross-border e-commerce, service trade, and service outsourcing. The new model helps companies reduce operational transaction costs and establish overseas marketing service centers, and the proportion of total imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” has steadily increased.
The “Shaanxi Province “Belt and Road” Construction 2020 Action Plan” emphasizes cultivating new formats and models of foreign trade. It was pointed out that we should solidly promote the construction of Xi’an cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone and foreign trade comprehensive service platform; cultivate various foreign trade clusters such as national foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases and provincial characteristic export bases, and activelyEstablish a national-level import trade promotion innovation demonstration zone, etc.
In addition, Chongqing proposed at the leading group meeting to actively integrate into the “Belt and Road” and accelerate the construction of an inland open highland that it should optimize the opening environment and increase opening up in manufacturing, service industries, agriculture and other fields; Jiangsu Province promotes The “Belt and Road” construction leading group office meeting emphasized providing necessary assistance to major projects and key enterprises related to the overall work of this year, assisting employees in low-risk areas to speed up their return to work, and organizing the supply of domestic production materials to catch up with overseas demand.
At the beginning of the epidemic, the “Belt and Road” foreign trade grew against the trend. During the current epidemic situation, “Belt and Road” cooperation has become an important driving force for foreign trade in various regions. It is believed that the “Belt and Road” trade cooperation will bring more opportunities and possibilities for the recovery of foreign trade companies. </p
