The OPEC+ and G20 meetings on April 13 reached the goal of reducing production by 20 million barrels per day. However, due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, global crude oil demand may decrease by 20 million to 35 million barrels per day, and crude oil prices have basically Including the expectation of this production cut, the short-term oil price “benefits have been exhausted” or some gains have been given back, but in the medium and long term, this production cut will support oil prices. In addition, since global crude oil demand has not yet substantially recovered, the process of oil prices bottoming may be relatively long, similar to a “U” shape, and the probability of a “V” shape is unlikely.
PX supply is gradually increasing
In March 2020, PX output was 1.6269 million tons, an increase of 277,200 tons from the previous month, and a year-on-year growth rate of 67.37%.
Crude oil plummeted in March, and refinery enthusiasm for operating operations increased significantly. From the PX operating rate data, we can see that the PX operating rate in March this year was between 78% and 85%. , this operating rate level is much higher than the same period in previous years. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 4 million tons PX device was fully put into operation in early 2020, the production capacity base increased, and PX output hit a record high in March. Looking at downstream PTA, Hengli, Fuhaichuang, Xinfengming and other equipment have been undergoing maintenance since mid-March, and the PTA operating rate once dropped to 70%. Therefore, PX supply and demand are facing severe excess in March, and the final inventory data is expected to rise significantly. PX supply pressure gradually increased in late April. Judging from the operation of the equipment, the 700,000 tons/year PX unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical and the 1.4 million tons/year PX unit of Fujia Dahua have been shut down since the beginning of April, which has led to a decline in the PX operating rate. But both sets are expected to restart this week. Judging from the operation of other overseas devices, the production capacity that is planned to be restarted in the near future is greater than the new maintenance capacity, so it is expected that the supply of PX will gradually increase in mid-to-late April.
PTA load remains high
2020 In March this year, PTA production was 3.6 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month. Affected by inventory pressure, PTA operating rate dropped from 85% in the first half of March to 70% in the second half of March. This is mainly because domestic Hengli Petrochemical has 2.5 million tons/year, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons/year, Xinfengming 2.2 million tons/year, Reignwood Petrochemical 1.4 million tons/year, and Zhuhai BP 1.25 million tons/year PTA devices. Overhaul. However, starting from the end of March and early April, the above devices have been gradually restarted. As of April 10, the PTA operating rate has rebounded to 92%, and PTA supply pressure has hit again. In terms of new production capacity, Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons/year PTA unit may be put into production near the middle of the year, and you can pay attention to it later.
Speculative bargain hunting boosts the market
With the outbreak of the epidemic and the international market crisis, the price of polyester has fallen sharply, and the processing fee for polyester filament even fell into negative territory for a time. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, terminal weaving orders have been sluggish, especially export orders have been canceled on a large scale, and polyester factory product inventories are high in March. At this time, from the perspective of the industry’s own fundamentals, terminal recovery is far away, and the rebound seems to lack effective driving force. However, during the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil, the polyester filament market’s bottom-buying mentality broke out. In addition to the normal replenishment of downstream enterprises and traders, many speculators in other industries went crazy to buy the bottom. This led to April 10, POY, FDY, DTY inventory dropped to 14.4 days (-15.9 days), 17.2 days (-13.3 days) and 22.8 days (-10.4 days). With speculative funds frantically buying the bottom, polyester factories took the opportunity to ship out inventory, with only 1-2 days. At this time, polyester factory product inventories have returned to safe levels. Due to the high stability and absolute low price of polyester filament itself, speculative funds from outside the industry gradually began to intervene in the market. Polyester filament production and sales rebounded rapidly, and the high inventory was digested. On this basis, the price of polyester has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has rebounded, which has gradually exerted a pulling effect on the price of PTA.
When the price of polyester filament drops sharply, there will be speculation from outside the industry; short-term inventory in January In the face of shortages and rapidly rising prices, downstream polyester factories have also seen reverse selling of upstream raw materials. It can be seen that for a relatively mature market, speculative demand from outside the industrial chain or even from the reverse industrial chain will never disappear. They may not affect the long-term supply and demand relationship, but they provide a certain degree of security for short-term price trends. Pad effect.
Future PTA Trend
As of April 10, 2020, PTA social inventory climbed to 3.29 million tons, approaching the 3.5 million tons level. Regarding the subsequent PTA social inventory trend, we believe that PTA will still be in the inventory accumulation stage in April. This is because the operating rate of PTA is currently at a high level, but the demand is lower than in previous years. Especially since the terminal demand has not yet recovered, polyester factories will be more cautious in increasing the load, and the overall supply of PTA is still in excess. Looking forward to the later period, in April, PTA supply and demand will still be weak, and social inventory will continue to accumulate. At present, downstream polyester factories are stocking up around 10-12 days, raw material inventories are at historically high levels, and short-term terminal demand is sluggish, and polyester factories will be more cautious in replenishing stocks. . In summary, we predictIn late April, PTA will fluctuate between 3,300 and 3,750 yuan/ton. </p
