Time is approaching the holiday, the market of the old year is coming to an end, and the market of the new year has begun to take shape:
Many orders have been placed, but Some “mines” have also been laid.
The first “thunder”
The RMB exchange rate may break 6
Since June 2020, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated all the way from the lowest level of 7.1775 points during the year, rising for 7 consecutive months , until it currently enters the 6.4 range and begins to fluctuate.
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is caused by many factors:
1. The domestic epidemic is under good control, and China’s economic environment is “unique” in the world
2. The recovery of foreign manufacturing is slow, and the import and export volume is extremely unbalanced
3. Many European and American countries have enacted economic stimulus plans and adopted loose monetary policies, especially the United States, which cannot stop “printing money”
Put the time to 2021. Judging from the current performance, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide has reached a new high. After Biden came to power, the United States promised to launch various “economic stimulus plans” that would print money in trillions of dollars. Even worse than the Trump administration.
Under such circumstances, the possibility of continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will be greatly increased. It is not impossible to break 6, and the further time goes by, the higher the RMB exchange rate may be. For textile companies, the hedging methods used and when to settle foreign exchange will have a huge impact on profits.
The second “thunder”
Will the price of raw materials increase by another 1,000?
Since December 2020, the price of polyester filament, the raw material for polyester, has continued to rise, and the price increase for some specifications has exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. , but unfortunately, this rise may be just the beginning.
At the beginning of 2020, under the influence of the new coronavirus pneumonia, the price of polyester filament fell sharply. Especially after the foreign epidemic began to spread, the price of polyester filament fell directly to the bottom, breaking through the lowest price in history.
Throughout 2020, polyester manufacturers have controlled their inventories within an acceptable range through promotions, discounts, production restrictions and other means. Therefore, as soon as the news of the vaccine came out and the price of crude oil rose, the price of polyester yarn went up.
Take FDY50D/72F as an example. Compared with the end of last year, the price difference of polyester yarn at this stage is still small. There are 850 yuan/ton.
2019 is also a year when the textile market is not going well. Compared with the past, the price of polyester yarn in 2019 is actually not high. Therefore, once the market picks up, the price of raw materials is very likely to fall back again. Even if It has risen back to the historical low at the end of 2019, with an increase of nearly a thousand yuan. The boss must not be careful about the risks contained therein.
The third “thunder”
Freight rates are not the highest, only higher
Starting from October 2020, foreign trade orders have picked up rapidly, but this has also brought about a rapid increase in freight costs. , the rise is not scary, the scary thing is that it cannot stop.
News on January 6, according to the FreightosBalticDailyIndex: On January 1, 2021, the freight rate on the China/East Asia-Northern Europe route hit a record high, reaching US$6,992. /FEU, compared with the freight rate of US$5,662 on December 31, the last day of 2020, it suddenly jumped 23.5% overnight.
On January 1, 2021, the freight rate on the China/East Asia-Mediterranean route hit a record high, reaching US$7,101/FEU, a sudden jump from the freight rate of US$5,644 on December 31, the last day of 2020. rose 25.8%.
The boss of Youbu complained that he could not receive orders before, but now he has received orders and the goods have been made but cannot be shipped.
But unfortunately, whether it is from the current situation or the predictions of authoritative institutions, the price of container shipping still seems to have not risen to the end at this stage. In the first quarter and even the second quarter of 2021, freight rates Prices may remain on an upward trend.
For textile foreign trade companies, especially companies that produce products with “small profits but quick turnover”, rising freight costs may turn some low-profit orders into losses.
In addition, textile companies are very likely to encounter the problem of customers lowering prices.
At present, there are two main types of textile companies engaged in foreign trade. One is to trade directly with foreign customers, and the other is to sell cloth to foreign trade companies and communicate with foreign countries through foreign trade companies.User transactions, of which the latter accounts for the majority.
Due to the three “thunders” mentioned above, the cost of foreign trade next year is bound to be higher than this year. However, due to full competition, it will be difficult for domestic traders to offset these cost increases by increasing prices. .
In order to ensure profits and avoid losses, traders can only lower prices for textile companies.
In fact, it is not uncommon for traders to lower prices this year. However, the inventory of gray fabrics for some conventional products is too high, and textile companies are often embarrassed. In order to reduce inventory, they often have to sell fabrics at a loss.
From the sample companies monitored by China Silk City Network, we learned that the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze is about 40-41 days, which is slightly higher than the same period in 2020.
In 2021, when the new crown vaccine is widely vaccinated around the world, people’s hope of defeating the epidemic is right in front of them, and the number of orders It has also increased visibly. But how to avoid each “thunder” and make money while receiving orders is a new challenge for textile people in 2021. </p
