The overall chemical fiber industry is warming up
As of2month15On 15, according to the Shenwan Class II classification, there are currently18listed chemical fiber companies announced2016Annual performance forecast shows that the overall industry has recovered significantly. In terms of sub-sectors, the performance of the polyester industry chain has improved significantly, and the net profits of companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Tongkun Petrochemical and Hengyi Petrochemical have basically doubled; the viscose industry has continued the good market last year, with Jilin Chemical Fiber, Aoyang Technology The net profits of other companies have achieved substantial year-on-year growth; in contrast, the spandex market is still sluggish, and companies such as Huafeng Spandex, Taihe New Materials, and Youli Holdings have performed poorly.
Improvement of supply and demand relationship
In terms of the polyester industry chain, many companies said that driven by supply-side reforms and overcapacity reduction, the industry’s supply and demand relationship has improved. In addition, international oil prices have rebounded this year, which has provided support for major product prices. In addition, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2016, which benefited exports and some companies gained exchange gains. Affected by this, the performance of related companies has increased significantly.
Rongsheng Petrochemical estimates that its net profit in 2016 will be 1.7 billion-1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 382.79%-425.39%. The company stated that the aromatics sector continues to release benefits; the gross profit margin of the PTA sector has increased; the chemical fiber sector has been relatively stable, with profits significantly improved compared to the same period last year.
Hengyi Petrochemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. estimate that the net profits in 2016 will be 760 million yuan-850 million yuan and 1.1 billion yuan-1.16 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 311.69%-360.44% and 855% respectively. -907%. The company stated that after years of recession in the industry, supply-side reforms continued to advance, production capacity clearance gradually appeared, and the growth rate of new production capacity released dropped significantly. At the same time, downstream demand has maintained healthy and continued growth, the industry has ushered in a long-lost tight balance recovery cycle, and the supply and demand pattern has gradually improved. Especially since the fourth quarter of last year, due to the strong downstream demand and the stabilization and recovery of product prices, the profitability of the company’s products has increased significantly. International crude oil prices started to rise from low levels and remained relatively high in the second half of the year, which provided cost support for polyester filament prices and also increased inventory earnings.
The viscose industry is even more optimistic. After years of brutal price wars, there has been almost no significant new production capacity in the industry since 2014, and profitability has bottomed out since 2015. Jilin Chemical Fiber estimates that it will achieve a net profit of 28 million to 35 million yuan in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 94.69% to 143.37%. Aoyang Technology estimates that the full-year net profit will be approximately 230 million yuan to 290 million yuan, an increase of 69.29% to 113.45%. Prices of major products continue to rise, which is the main reason for the significant growth in performance of these companies.
However, the performance of Nanjing Chemical Fiber, which also belongs to the viscose industry, is somewhat “unexpected.” The company estimates that its net profit for 2016 will be around 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80%. As for the main reason for the sharp decline in performance, the company stated that in 2015, it publicly listed and transferred 70% of the equity it held in Nanjing Jinling Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., realizing a one-time investment income of 498.317 million yuan, while there was no such income in 2016. The company pointed out that since June 2016, the price of viscose staple fiber has experienced a rapid rise, and the profitability of the main business of viscose fiber has improved significantly. The profit realized this year mainly comes from the main business of viscose fiber.
Spandex industry bottoms out
The overall performance of the spandex industry is poor, and the average sales price has declined year-on-year, resulting in a significant decline in the performance of related companies, and some companies have even made substantial provisions.
Youli Holdings estimates its first loss, with an estimated loss of 350 million yuan to 430 million yuan, a decrease of 1433.09% to 1737.80% compared with the same period last year. As for the main reason for the sharp decline in performance, the company stated that the spandex industry was in dismal condition and had made an asset impairment plan of 349 million yuan. In addition, sluggish industry demand has led to the suspension of part of the company’s production capacity.
Industry leader Huafeng Spandex also estimates its first loss, with a loss range of 300 million to 350 million yuan. Similar to Woori Holdings, the company has made an asset impairment plan of 445 million yuan. Another company, Taihe New Materials, estimates its full-year net profit to be 50 million yuan to 60 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.97% to 47.47%.
However, the provision for asset impairment is an adjustable accounting method. Some companies use one-timePropose a huge asset impairment plan in order to prepare for the new year.
In the first week after the Spring Festival in 2017, affected by the rising price pressure of the upstream raw material PTMEG, spandex manufacturers increased their quotations by 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 3%-5%.
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