“2023 Key Petrochemical Product Production Capacity Early Warning Report” released! Structural contradictions in the polyurethane industry begin to emerge
On April 11, the “2023 Key Petrochemical Products Production Capacity Early Warning Report” was released, detailing the production capacity of key petrochemical products in 2022 and related forecasts in 2023. The report pointed out that synthetic resin is still at the peak of production expansion, polyurethane raw material production capacity has increased significantly, and structural contradictions in the industry have begun to emerge.
1
my country’s primary crude oil processing capacity ranks first in the world for the first time
In 2022, my country’s primary crude oil processing capacity will increase by 25.5 million tons per year, reaching 918 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. For the first time, China’s crude oil primary processing capacity will surpass the United States, ranking first in the world. The annual crude oil processing volume was 676 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. Affected by factors such as the failure to fully release new production capacity, the average operating rate of crude oil primary processing units dropped by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year to 73.6%. The total output of refined oil products (steam, coal, and diesel) in 2022 will be approximately 366 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is expected that my country’s total primary crude oil processing capacity will reach 930 million tons/year in 2023, further consolidating its position as the world’s largest oil refining country. With the return of demand for refined oil and the continued growth of chemical oil, it is expected that the average utilization rate of my country’s crude oil primary processing units in 2023 will be basically the same as in 2022 or increase slightly.
2
Basic petrochemical raw materials are still at the peak of production capacity,
Production and supply capacity further improved
◆Ethylene:
A total of 5 new ethylene units will be completed and put into operation in 2022, with an additional production capacity of 5.25 million tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach 46.75 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, surpassing the United States for the first time (the total ethylene production capacity is 44.82 million tons/year) , becoming the world’s largest ethylene country, with a production of 41.68 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. It is expected that 5.6 million tons/year of new production capacity will be put into production in 2023, with the total production capacity reaching 52.2 million tons/year, and the domestic ethylene self-sufficiency rate will further increase. It is expected that by 2025, my country’s ethylene production capacity will reach about 70 million tons per year, and the output will reach about 58 million tons, basically achieving self-sufficiency. However, it is necessary to consider the possible impact of low-priced ethylene products in the Middle East and North America on the Chinese market.
◆Acrylic:
Domestic propylene production capacity will grow rapidly in 2022, with a total new production capacity of 5.74 million tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach 56.68 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%; the output will be 43.338 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. 2023-2025 is still the peak stage of propylene production capacity, and propylene production capacity using PDH as the production path will be intensively put into production. It is expected that my country’s new propylene production capacity will be 10.17 million tons/year in 2023, reaching 67.938 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% .
◆Ethylene glycol:
In 2022, my country’s new ethylene glycol production capacity will be 5.8 million tons/year (including 2.8 million tons/year of coal-based ethylene glycol), and the exiting capacity will be 1.52 million tons/year, with a total production capacity of 25.037 million tons/year, year-on-year An increase of 20.3%; output was 13.248 million tons, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year. In 2023, a total of 7 projects with a total capacity of 4.5 million tons/year of ethylene glycol will be put into production in China, including 1.8 million tons/year of coal-based ethylene glycol. The total production capacity will be close to 30 million tons/year, with an annual growth rate of up to 18%.
◆Para-xylene (PX):
In 2022, my country’s total PX production capacity will be 34.67 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%; the output will be 24.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. At present, domestic PX production capacity is 12.7 million tons/year and is planned to be built. It is expected that the total production capacity will reach 42.37 million tons/year by the end of 2023, an increase of more than 20%. As a large number of production capacities continue to be put into production, it is expected that my country’s PX production capacity will exceed 4,600 tons by the end of 2025. million tons per year, the self-sufficiency rate will further increase, but considering that the overall supply of PX in Asia is sufficient, the competition between my country’s PX industry and neighboring countries will become more intense.
◆Purified terephthalic acid (PTA):
In 2022, the new PTA production capacity will be 7.35 million tons/year, excluding the failed production capacity of 3.39 million tons/year, the net increase in production capacity will be 3.96 million tons/year, the total production capacity will reach 70.25 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%; the output will be 53.13 million tons tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. At present, the domestic PTA production capacity currently and planned exceeds 36 million tons/year. In 2023, new production capacity is expected to be 8.25 million tons/year, and the capacity utilization rate will further decline.
3
Synthetic resin is still at the peak of production expansion,
Market changes have a significant impact on capacity utilization
◆Polyethylene (PE):
In 2022, new production capacity will be 1.45 million tons/year, reaching 29.81 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. Most of the new production capacity will be put into production in the first half of the year, and production capacity will be effectively released, with output of 25.316 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In the next five years, there are 33 planned and under construction projects with a total production capacity of 24.58 million tons/year. It is expected that the domestic new polyethylene production capacity will be 5 million tons/year in 2023. By 2025, my country’s polyethylene production capacity is expected to exceed 50 million tons/year. years, with the ability to meet domestic demand.
◆Polypropylene (PP):
In 2022, my country’s new polypropylene production capacity will be 2.8 million tons/year, reaching 34.96 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; the output will be 29.655 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. By 2025, there will be 52 new or planned projects with a total production capacity of 31.18 million tons/year. Among them, 19 projects with a total production capacity of 9.55 million tons/year are expected to be put into operation in 2023, with the total production capacity rising to 400,000 tons/year.
◆Polyvinyl chloride (PVC):
In 2022, my country’s PVC production capacity will increase slightly by 970,000 tons/year, with total production capacity reaching 2.8 million tons/year; output will be 20.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. It is expected that my country will have new PVC production in 2023It can produce 1 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and domestic demand will increase slightly to 20 million tons.
◆Polycarbonate (PC):
There are 5 new PC production projects in my country in 2022, with a total production capacity of 800,000 tons/year. Excluding long-term suspended projects, the total production capacity is 3.2 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%; the output is 1.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% ; Capacity utilization increased by 13.9 percentage points year-on-year to 55.6%. There are 11 projects planned or under construction in the next five years, with a total production capacity of 1.68 million tons per year. It is expected that the new production capacity will be 300,000 tons/year in 2023, and the total production capacity will reach 3.5 million tons/year. As market demand continues to grow and downstream imports substitution increases, production capacity utilization The rate is expected to increase further.
4
Demand for synthetic rubber is growing slowly,
Industry prosperity is low
◆Styrene-butadiene-styrene block copolymer (SBS):
In 2022, my country’s SBS production capacity will decline slightly, from 1.62 million tons/year in the previous year to 1.59 million tons/year; the output will be approximately 877,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%; the average device operating rate will be 55.2%, a decrease of 3.3% percentage points. Although production capacity will decrease slightly in 2022, judging from recent developments, demand growth is generally lower than production capacity growth. Currently, there are 8 SBS projects planned or under construction, with a total production capacity of 635,000 tons/year. Among them, three projects are planned to be completed and put into production in 2023, with an expected new production capacity of 165,000 tons/year. my country’s SBS production capacity will reach 1.755 million tons/year. As market demand recovers, the device operating rate is expected to increase.
◆Nitrile rubber:
In 2022, the new production capacity will be 35,000 tons/year, reaching 275,000 tons/year, an increase of 14.6%; the output will be 235,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; the device operating rate will be 85.5%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. It is expected that the industry will add 35,000 tons/year of new production capacity in 2023, with the total production capacity reaching 310,000 tons/year.
5
Polyurethane raw material production capacity has increased significantly,
Industrial structural contradictions begin to appear
◆Propylene oxide (PO):
In 2022, production capacity will increase by nearly 800,000 tons, an increase of 19.1%, and the total production capacity will reach 4.902 million tons/year; output will be 3.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%; as most of the new production capacity will be put into operation at the end of the year, the annual production capacity utilization will be lowered The rate dropped by 10 percentage points year-on-year to 79.8%. From 2023 to 2027, the existing and planned production capacity is 10.468 million tons/year. It is expected that my country’s PO production capacity will reach 8.06 million tons/year in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 64.4%. A large number of new production capacities will be released in a concentrated manner, and the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate greatly in the short term.
◆Polyether polyol (PPG):
In 2022, the new production capacity will be 675,000 tons/year, the exiting capacity will be 395,000 tons/year, the net increase in production capacity will be 280,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach 7.41 million tons/year; the output will be 4.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; The average operating rate of the equipment was 58%, basically the same as the previous year. In 2023, it is expected that the new polyether polyol production capacity will total 1.345 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the total production capacity will reach 8.2 million tons/year.
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