Ready-to-wear apparel fuels U.S. retail sales rebound

New data shows sales growth at U.S. apparel retailers, helping the retail industry rebound after an unexpected sales drop in January 2019.

According to NRF data, retail sales in January 2019 increased by 1.3% after seasonality adjustment compared with December 2018, and were unadjusted compared with the same period last year. A year-on-year growth of 3.6%.

Excluding data from cars, gas stations, and restaurants, sales including online and other non-store sales increased 6.3% year-on-year, seasonally adjusted compared to December 2018 Growth of 2.6%.

The sales of ready-made clothing and clothing accessories stores increased by 2.1% year-on-year, but decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period in 2018. The sales of sporting goods stores decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, but after The seasonally adjusted increase was 4.8% compared to December 2018.

The data for January 2019 unexpectedly dropped 0.1% year-on-year from December 2018. In the first half of the November 2018 holiday promotion season, unadjusted growth was 5.1% year-over-year. NRF does not consider October 2018 as part of the holiday season, but many holiday shopping has been brought forward, with October 2018 growing 5.7% year-over-year.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said that after an unexpected decline in December 2018, retail sales rebounded in January 2019, thus consolidating a good 2019 start. U.S. consumers have regained confidence as concerns about the government shutdown and stock market volatility recede, and trade talks move in a positive direction. While some hesitation still lingers, we are pleased to see consumer spending showing increased spending power given the focus on U.S. households. We expect wage increases and falling unemployment rates to continue to boost consumer confidence over the next year.

As of January 2019, the 3-month moving average was 2.7% higher than the same period last year.

Kleinhenz added: Updated retail sales for December 2018 were even lower, but those numbers remain in doubt due to reporting delays caused by the government shutdown. The rebound in January 2019 further tested the accuracy and reliability of the December 2018 data. The processing of latency data remains unclear, and reported data volatility is difficult to explain.

NRF data is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau (USCensus Bureau), which indicates overall sales in January 2019, including automobile dealers, Gas stations and restaurants increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% from December 2018 and an unadjusted year-on-year increase of 2.3%.

NRF predicts that retail sales will grow by 3.8-4.4% in 2019 to exceed US$3.8 trillion. But forecasts will be monitored and potentially revised as more data is released in the coming months.

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