Fabric Products,Fabric Information,Fabric Factories,Fabric Suppliers Fabric News Conspire, discuss and share together to write a new chapter in the cotton industry – Minutes of the Quancheng Cotton Forum meeting

Conspire, discuss and share together to write a new chapter in the cotton industry – Minutes of the Quancheng Cotton Forum meeting



Collaborate, discuss and share together to write a new chapter in the cotton industry – Minutes of the Quancheng Cotton Forum On May 5, the Quancheng Cotton Forum hosted by the Shandong Cotton Association…

Collaborate, discuss and share together to write a new chapter in the cotton industry – Minutes of the Quancheng Cotton Forum

On May 5, the Quancheng Cotton Forum hosted by the Shandong Cotton Association was successfully held in Jinan, Shandong. This forum joins hands with well-known scholars and guests in the industry to analyze policy trends, look forward to the future of the market, discuss opportunities and challenges in industry development through theme discussions and roundtable forums, and listen to insights and sparks of wisdom on the hot issues of most concern in the industry. The opinions of the guests are summarized below for reference only.

Changes in the international cotton market and trade environment and their impact on my country

——Zhai Xueling, Director of the Market and Trade Research Office of the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

In recent years, global cotton production has shown the characteristics of large fluctuations in harvest area, gradual increase in cotton yield per unit area, substantial increase in total cotton output, and more concentrated regional layout; on the consumer side, the overall consumption volume has increased in waves, and the cotton consumption pattern The changes are large, and the separation of cotton production and sales in various countries is obvious.

After the United States announced the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), it created the typical incident of the “Xinjiang-related Act”, aiming to reshape the economic and trade rules led by the United States, which had an adverse impact on my country’s cotton industry. In the current volatile international environment, my country’s cotton industry is facing three changes: declining total demand, weakening linkage between domestic and foreign cotton prices, and accelerating overseas transfer of industry, which are likely to affect the global status of my country’s textile and apparel industry in the future.

Thoughts and suggestions on the development of high quality cotton industry under the new situation

——Zhang Zhongying, President of Shandong Provincial Institute of Macroeconomics

At present, China’s economy has strong resilience and room for development. It has not only achieved continuous positive growth in special periods, but has also become the main driving force for global economic growth. However, my country’s current economic performance improvement is mainly restorative, and many difficulties and challenges still need to be overcome to promote high-quality development.

The textile and garment industry is a traditional pillar and important livelihood industry in Shandong Province. According to research, the downstream demand for thecotton textile industry this year is generally lower than expected, and some companies have reported that orders are lower than during the same period in previous years. And the outside order is weaker than the inside order. Purecotton yarn companies in the province are facing difficulties in financing, recruiting workers, increasing factor costs, serious product homogeneity, and importedyarns. Issues such as share squeeze and increased substitution of chemical fiber require greater efforts in integration, reorganization and differentiated development. However, the confidence of textile enterprises has been continuously recovering, and the profits of textile enterprises are at the average level. They are optimistic about the market outlook and cotton price expectations.

In order to achieve high-quality development of the cotton industry, we should effectively stabilize domestic cotton production, promote the quality and efficiency of the cotton industry, strengthen international trade cooperation in the industry, and build a dual-cycle development pattern.

Macroeconomic analysis and prospects in the post-epidemic era

——Xin Liguo, associate professor at Shandong University School of Management

The current global economy is in the post-epidemic era, and the overall economy is complex, changeable, and uncertain. However, our country’s economy is highly resilient, has great potential, and is full of vitality. The fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. It is expected that China’s economy will Overall improvement. Despite its strong economic recovery, China faces a number of medium-term challenges, including demographics, slowing productivity growth, high inequality and remaining social vulnerabilities, and a highly carbon-intensive production structure.

In the post-epidemic era, my country’s economy will return to medium-to-high growth, private consumption and investment are expected to achieve a stronger recovery, consumer and business confidence will increase, and the labor market will improve, which will support public investment and Exportsshift to domestic private consumption, effectively promoting China’s economy to achieve stronger growth. On the supply side, it is expected that the driving force of economic growth will gradually shift from industrial production to the service industry.

It may be too early for cotton prices to soar as they wait for the opportunity

——Wang Yining, deputy general manager of China Cotton Information Network

Judging from the domestic situation, macroeconomic warming and the supply side of the industry have formed a phased resonance, stimulating a rapid rise in cotton prices; however, the absence of demand resonance may limit the upper limit of cotton prices, and weather uncertainty also creates the risk of a sharp correction in the short term. , it is expected that the current rising top is close, and it is difficult to form a trend if it still maintains the previous wide range of shocks. In the medium to long term, it is expected that the fourth quarter is expected to reach a higher-than-expected high, but the operating path will tend to be cautious. On the one hand, the recovery of demand and macro support have also reduced the overall downward risk of the market. However, on the other hand, due to the uncertainty in the strength of the industry’s own demand momentum and its dependence on external stimulus and support, it is expected that it is difficult to see a linear upward trend or a two-way widening trend. There is a positive trend of fluctuations but the bottom continues to rise.

In the short term, the international market lacks clear and strong new stimulus factors from the outside and both supply and demand. There is pressure but support in the short term. It is expected to remain at the current position and fluctuate in the range, and it is difficult to see a trend market. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the price stimulation and support brought by supply-side variables in the new year, but we also need to be wary of market fluctuations caused by unexpected macro risks. In the medium to long term, the international market macroeconomic situation�, far lower than the same period last year and recent years. At present, there are uncertainties in forward orders, the subsequent consumption situation is still unclear, and the uncertainty of cotton basis differential lock-in in the new year is strong. In addition, it seems that international shipping costs are still falling, and there is no difficulty in guaranteeing shipping schedules this year, so there is no need to lock in the basis difference in advance.

Zhang Hao, Purchasing Department Manager of Guanxian Guanxing Textile Co., Ltd.

At present, the cotton production and sales rate tends to be balanced, with high, medium and low-count yarns being produced. The immediate profit situation of cotton yarn sales is good, among which high-count yarns are more popular. Based on the company’s actual operating conditions, it is expected that the hot cotton yarn market can basically be maintained in May, and the situation in June remains to be seen.

Recently, the company’s cotton yarn and cotton have maintained inventories of about 20 days, and the overall willingness to restock is not strong. In addition, as futures prices continue to rise, pricing risks are relatively high and inventory replenishment operations are difficult. The company is a labor-intensive industry. For social responsibility considerations, even if cotton prices continue to rise and profits are compressed in the future, it will continue to maintain normal production and operations.

Fang Tao, general manager of Zhejiang Chuangjin Huifeng Products Co., Ltd.

From a domestic perspective, market risk appetite has improved to a certain extent since the end of November last year. Although the early profits of spinning mills in the industry are relatively high, affected by external uncertainties, corporate risk preferences have always been cautious, and enthusiasm for stockpiling yarn and cloth is not high.

Judging from the international geopolitical situation, although the structural contradictions between China and the United States are difficult to reverse, the two countries currently have a willingness to relax. Since the U.S. economy is severely hampered and there is a need for recuperation and de-risking, the likelihood of further intensification of conflicts between the two sides is unlikely. From a macro perspective, a mild recession in the U.S. economy is the basic assumption that the market has reached consensus on, but a deep recession or a hard landing may be a risk point in the future.

This round of rebound is mainly due to the substantial improvement in supply and demand fundamentals, and the reduction in area production in the new year provides support to the market, but the market still remains concerned about future demand. Because the overall demand this year is stable, the probability of an explosive trend increase is low. Subsequent capital entry will increase price fluctuations. The increase is more driven by supply-side variables and improved risk appetite, rather than a smooth increase in supply and demand resonance.

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