Strive to make “futures power” better serve the cotton textile industry
Since last year, the macro environment at home and abroad has been complex and changeable. The prices of cotton and cotton yarn have continued to fall. The price difference between domestic and foreign prices has been deeply inverted. The processing profit even turned negative for a time. Cotton textileIndustry development and business operations are facing tremendous pressure. In this context, the reporter learned that the futures market has played an important role as a “stabilizer” and “safe haven” in serving cotton industry chain enterprises to stabilize their operations and avoid risks.
On March 31, the relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange stated at the first Cotton (Zhengzhou) Summit Forum on “Cotton and Cotton” hosted by Guotai Junan Futures and co-organized by Zhengzhou Cotton Trading Market that currently, more than 80% of domestic Almost all cotton trade refers to futures prices. Cotton futures prices have become an important basis for spot pricing and product situation analysis. Cotton futures warehouse receipts have also become an important part of domestic cotton commercial inventories. Basis differentials have become the mainstream trend in the cotton market. .
“The cotton industry chain is relatively long. With the listing and trading of textile derivatives including cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, short fiber futures and some option instruments, the cotton industry has Companies upstream and downstream in the chain can choose from more hedging tools.” Zhang Wentian, general manager of Guotai Junan Futures Henan Branch, said that companies in the cotton industry chain have generally accepted and promoted the model of combining futures and cash. The unblocking of futures and spot prices will not only help stabilize cotton textile prices, but also help smooth the upstream and downstream industries.
Recently, the disturbance of commodities by overseas macro factors has eased. Driven by multiple favorable factors such as cost support and demand improvement, cotton futures varieties have entered a new stage. Sex Restoration Quotes. Wang Xiao, assistant director of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, said that 2023 is the second half of overseas interest rate hikes and the first half of China’s economic recovery, and understanding the expected difference is most important. From the perspective of the international market, on the one hand, inflation in the United States is gradually spreading from commodity inflation to service industry inflation. Stubborn inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes are one of the focuses of the current market game. In this case, the sensitivity of commodities to interest rate increases It is moving lower, but the pressure from above remains. On the other hand, the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with wage growth well above the trend line and high job vacancies keeping U.S. wage growth at a high level. “Therefore, although the Fed’s interest rate hikes may be gradually suspended, interest rate cuts may be ‘distant’. The subsequent performance of employment and inflation data has become a key factor in whether the Fed decides to cut interest rates.” Wang Xiao believes that as long as the intensity of the Fed’s tightening cannot close the rate of narrowing of the gap between commodity supply and demand, tightening expectations will be difficult to eliminate. If the tightening expectations cannot be eliminated, they will continue to suppress the demand side. The process of the U.S. economy seeking a soft landing is tantamount to a steel wire rope. balance on. Therefore, financial market risk appetite is the anchor that determines whether actual economic data is good or bad.
Wang Haoyu, general manager of Haorui Yifan (Beijing) Trading Co., Ltd., said that from the perspective of inventory cycle, the current domestic cotton market destocking cycle has clearly ended, and market participants have gradually turned to inventory reconstruction, but their attitude is cautious. The overseas cotton market has still not completed the destocking cycle, but there have been structural changes in the market’s procurement methods, cycles, and flow directions.
“Judging from the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), USDA continues to lower its inventory forecast. The global cotton ending inventory in January 2023 was 19.396 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 185,000 tons, or 0.9%.” Wang Haoyu believes that from In terms of basis difference and cottonquality, U.S. cotton will still be the most competitiveexport for the remainder of the 2022/2023 year. >Variety, the sales of new Australian cotton flowers are greatly affected by China-Australia relations.
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