2023 China Cotton Zhangjiagang Forum discusses cotton market trends

Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has continued to evolve in a complex manner. As domestic production and living order gradually normalizes, the consumer market is steadily recovering. The cotton textile industry has always attracted attention from the industry. At the same time, cotton, as an important species in the futures market, has also attracted the attention of futures companies and trading companies. After experiencing the downturn in cotton prices in the past two years, relevant parties expect the cotton industry to be revitalized in the new year. With the arrival of the traditional “gold, three, silver and four”, people in the cotton industry chain are full of expectations for the trend of cotton this year.

On February 28, the 2023 China Cotton Zhangjiagang Forum, jointly organized by the Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Textile Raw Materials Market, Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce, and Soochow Futures Co., Ltd., opened in Zhangjiagang City. More than 600 people from futures companies, cotton trading companies, trading markets, and textile companies from all over the world came to discuss the development trends and sustainable development of the cotton market.

The market generally believes that macro factors have an increasing impact on cotton trends. Huang Yi, senior macro analyst at Hongze Research, analyzed that my country has entered an economic recovery cycle in 2023, global inflation is still at a high level, and interest rate hikes are coming to an end. China’s economy has had a good start this year, and economic recovery is expected. In 2023, the main point of domestic economic growth will be consumption, and manufacturing investment and exports will also gradually bottom out. Due to the low consumption base in 2022, there is reason to believe that consumption growth in 2023 will exceed expectations, and the easing of domestic monetary policy will also have a stimulating effect on the economy. For textiles and clothing, both domestic sales and exports have room for recovery, but it is difficult to increase exports, and domestic demand will play a major role.

Jiang Xingchun, assistant general manager of Soochow Futures Company, believes that consumption growth depends on income growth. If income growth does not meet expectations, consumption expectations will be difficult to meet. He is cautiously optimistic about consumption expectations.

At present, cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. What is the future trend? Wang Yining, deputy general manager of China Cotton Information Network, said that the road ahead is still long. In her view, in the short term, due to the lack of clear and strong new stimulus factors at both ends of supply and demand within the industry and from the periphery, both the internal and external markets may show a lack of upward momentum, but the current position is in a range-bound oscillation with limited downward pressure. It is difficult to see a trending market for the time being. From a mid- to long-term perspective, the domestic industry’s own upward momentum is limited but opportunities are increasing. It is expected that it is difficult to see a linear upward trend, or that it will fluctuate in two directions but slowly rise at the bottom; international cotton prices are expected to be under pressure for longer than domestic prices and will recover later than domestic prices.

According to research, the current start-up of cotton spinning enterprises is basically stable, but the order situation of enterprises is not as good as expected, including fewer export orders. Companies generally remain optimistic about demand expectations for the second quarter and the second half of the year.

Zheng Shengwei, general manager of Xiamen International Trade Hangzhou Company, analyzed cotton spinning consumption and forecast the market; Dong Shuangwei, general manager of the Industrial Finance Research Department of Digital Intelligence World (Shanghai) Industrial Technology Co., Ltd., introduced the current situation and development trends of Xinjiang cotton spinning ; Li Tao, general manager of the Cotton Trading Department of Tesco, introduced how to use big data for precise market operations.

At the end of the event, a roundtable forum was held, with Xiao Jingyao, president of Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce, Huang Hongyu, vice president of Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce and president of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Group, Fu Aimin, chairman of Shanghai Ruifu Investment Management Co., Ltd., and China Cotton Elite Club Dong Shuzhi, chairman and founder of Hedging Research Investment, Xu Xiaoxiang, vice president of Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce and chairman of Haitang International, and Lu Jianhua, chairman of Changzhou Keten Textile Co., Ltd. expressed their respective views on the current cotton market conditions and subsequent research and judgment.

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