The shipping industry is in crisis: Two of the world’s most important shipping routes are paralyzed, one due to the climate crisis and the other due to the war crisis.
On one side, the Panama Canal is restricted to ship navigation due to drought, while on the other side, the Houthi armed forces attack ships passing through the Red Sea heading to the Suez Canal. The two major shipping routes are blocked. A large number of cargoes are at risk of delaysand fuel costs are increasing,which has brought great consequences to the global shipping industry A serious impact;it will also cause freight prices to soar, causing a blow to global trade.
For two consecutive days on the 14th and 15th, multiple container ships of Maersk , Hapag-Lloyd and Mediterranean MSC were attacked by Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea!
On Friday, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced the suspension ofMandeb Strait After the voyage, just now, MSC and CMA CGM also announced the suspension of sailings across the Red Sea. MSC stated that in order to ensure the safety of seafarers and ships, MSC ships will not pass through the Suez Canal until the Red Sea channel is safe. Ships on the route will be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is located at the junction of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. If the Suez Canal is the most critical waterway in the world, then the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the gate to this waterway
Now the conflict in the Red Sea via Suez has worsened. Coupled with Panama’s shipping restrictions, this will be a ” A catastrophic blow.” Destine Ozuygur, director of operations at eeSea, a Danish maritime data analysis agency, said, Carriers’ planned diversions on the loop are expanding as more and more ships on the route avoid these two important waterways. “With no sign of easing the Panama Canal navigation restrictions and no signs of easing the conflict between Israel and Hamas, it is expected that in the coming weeks , Whether it is the trans-Pacific route or the Asia-Europe trade route passing the Cape of Good Hope, the traffic volume will increase significantly. “Ozuygur said span>. Currently, the number of ships willing to wait for tight restrictions in the Panama Canal has dropped sharply in recent weeks. The drought has forced the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) to cut the number of ships operating, causing a large number of ships to transit through other longer routes.This is now about to happen on a large scale in the Suez Canal.
According to eeSea data, 43 container ships will be rerouted from the Panama Canal in the next few weeks, and 9 of them are confirmed to sail through the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal strong>. In addition, 22 container ships plan to change their regular routes and bypass the Suez Canal. Ozuygur said: “If you add the nine Panama Canal-rerouted ships that originally passed through the Suez Canal but now choose to go through the Cape of Good Hope, the total number will reach 31.”According to a carrier contact, ocean carrier operations are accustomed to planning voyages in advance, with only bad weather and port congestion requiring adjustments. Steady state”, route selection “changes every hour”. “Sometimes I wonder whether the captain knows where the ship is going. There is great uncertainty.” The contact added, “This It also means that the estimated time of arrival (ETA) is constantly changing and, of course, there are delays in the customer’s supply chain.”For example, a ship sailing from China to Rotterdam If the ship does not go through the Suez Canal but takes the Cape of Good Hope route, the voyage will increase by about 3,500 nautical miles. Calculated at an average speed of 17 knots, the time to arrive at the Dutch port will be extended by about 9 days. An additional 1,000 tons of fuel were consumed in the process. Meanwhile, THE Alliance’s decision to redirect its three Asia-U.S. East Link routes to the Suez Canal is under constant review.
On December 6, Hapag-Lloyd said that in view of the further reduction in the number of daily navigation allowed through the Panama Canal in January, the company decided to change the route of these services to pass through the Suez Canal. However, many merchant ships have been attacked in succession recently, and the Houthi armed forces have made it clear that any ship is The attack targettarget, has begun to carry out indiscriminate attacks on merchant ships in an attempt to prevent Global trade passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This brings great danger to Red Sea shipping, which prompted THE alliance members to review this decision. In fact, in the THE Alliance’s new service network adjustment for 2024 released on the 13th, the shipping company pointed out that its trans-Pacific Asia-US East route will be “affected by the navigation situation of the Panama Canal.” . </span
