In 2019, the macro environment at home and abroad is complex and changeable. The development of China’s cotton textile industry is also facing many new situations, new characteristics and new problems. Textile enterprises have an urgent need for change, innovation and development. At the China Cotton Textile Conference held in Wuhan on October 9, Zhu Beina, president of the China Cotton Textile Industry Association, conducted a unique “data dialogue” with more than 350 participating representatives. Through the company’s operating status and policies, Conduct on-site surveys on various aspects such as demands and development issues, and present the issues of concern to the industry and the crux of development in the form of real-time data.
According to the voting data, the representatives who participated in the on-site answering were divided into three categories: among them, cotton textile enterprises accounted for 58%; Machinery companies account for 12%, and others such as trading companies, related units, universities, etc. account for 30%.
Through the innovative method of on-site voting, the China Cotton Textile Conference not only enhances interaction with enterprises, but also provides important first-hand information It was displayed and communicated at the scene, which pushed the atmosphere of the whole meeting to a climax and was recognized by the participating representatives. After voting, the on-site representatives also took out their mobile phones to take pictures of the data results. The voices of enterprises reflected in data also reflect the huge pressure and challenges that current industries and enterprises are still facing on the road to transformation and upgrading.
About the current business situation
According to on-site enterprise voting data, in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year, 85.4% of enterprises experienced a year-on-year decrease in operating rate, and 85% of enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease in main business income. , 91.6% of corporate profits fell. In terms of inventory, 62.8% of companies’ raw material inventories decreased year-on-year, and 22.7% of companies’ raw material inventories remained unchanged; 70.3% of companies’ product inventories increased year-on-year, and 19.4% of companies’ product inventories remained unchanged.
Zhu Beina said that since business operations must consider factors such as sustainable development, capital flow, cost sharing, and employment protection, companies still need to continue production despite insufficient downstream demand. This is one of the important reasons why the company’s operating conditions are lower than the previous year.
About product competitiveness
As for the issue of imported yarn, 56.7% of the companies believe that imported yarn has a greater impact on domestic yarn, while 43.3% think it will not have a big impact. In the three years or so before 2018, due to its low price, imported yarn had a greater impact on mainland yarn. As the price gap narrowed and the competitiveness of domestic yarn increased, the adverse impact of imported yarn on the industry has gradually declined. Regarding the issue of Xinjiang yarn, 66.2% of companies believe that Xinjiang yarn will have an impact on the mainland in the short term, and 22.3% of companies believe that there will be no impact in the long term. Zhu Beina pointed out that the development of Xinjiang’s cotton spinning industry depends on the direction of Xinjiang policies. .
About raw materials Structural issues
As to the question of which type of yarn products have better sales this year, 47.1% of companies believe that differentiated yarn sales are relatively good. According to Zhu Beina said that there are currently about 2 million tons of differentiated yarns in the country, accounting for 10%-12% of the country’s yarn production. Most of these differentiated yarns use non-cotton fiber raw materials, especially the potential of non-cotton fibers. Advantage. In addition, 29.7% of companies believe that sales of high-quality yarns are better, and 23.2% of companies believe that sales of mid- to low-grade yarns are better. The above results depend on whether the enterprise has a stable target market.
Among the companies that responded, 76.9% used non-cotton fibers, 59.4% believed that viscose fiber has great future development prospects, and 52.1% of companies have continued to use non-cotton fibers. The application proportion of non-cotton fibers has been increased, with 34.5% planning to increase the proportion of non-cotton fibers. In terms of the application of non-cotton fiber products, 51.2% of companies believe that the biggest difficulty is product market development, and 36.8% of companies believe that the most difficult thing is product development.
At the meeting, Zhang Zixin, secretary-general of the Regenerated Cellulose Fiber Green Development Alliance, said that green sustainability has become one of the hottest areas in the textile industry chain. For sustainable textile raw materials, The demand is also increasing. At the 2019 China International Textile Yarn Exhibition held in Shanghai, the products of major cotton textile companies have adopted the concepts of regeneration and sustainable development. The product brand value has also been improved, and at the same time it has also reduced the company’s cost in the entire supply chain. risk. Regenerated cellulose fiber is one of the main raw materials in the cotton spinning industry. Through upstream and downstream collaboration, the development and promotion of sustainable regenerated cellulose fiber products will also bring new business opportunities to the entire industry.
About Sino-US trade issues
72.5% of companies believe that Sino-US trade friction will take 3-5 years to ease, and 23.2% of companies think it will take longer. This shows that companies think There is still a pessimistic mood about Sino-US trade. 79.5% of companies believe that the impact of Sino-US trade friction will be global and no one can be immune.
In such a situation Against this background, 47.9% of companies believe that the “Belt and Road” layout of China’s cotton textile production capacity will accelerate, and 34.5% of companies believe that it will slow down.
At the meeting, according to the China Textile Industry Zhao Mingxia, deputy director of the Federation of Industrial Economics Research Institute, analyzed that the Sino-US trade friction began when the United States launched a steel and aluminum investigation into China in March 2018, and then gradually increased taxes on most of China’s bulk commodities, imposing additional tariffs of 5 %-25%. Specific to the textile industry, the U.S. tax increase list involves most of China’s chemical fibers, yarns, fabrics, carpets, industrial textiles, clothing and home textiles. According to customs data, China exports to the United States every year The total trade volume of textile and apparel products is approximately US$50 billion. The U.S.’s influence on China has directly caused a significant decline in China’s textile and apparel exports to the United States. Among them, chemical fiber long and short yarns have declined most rapidly and are highly substitutable. Yarn exports to the United States have been relatively More optimistic. With the increase in tariffs, it is expected that the export of upstream textiles will face greater difficulties at the end of this year, and the export pressure of clothing and home textile products will be more prominent in 2020. From the data of China’s major export markets, In 2018, China’s exports to the United States accounted for 18.2% of the world’s total, making it my country’s largest single export market, a decrease of US$10 billion from the previous year. The export growth rate of the entire industry will decrease by 3%-4%. Sino-US trade friction is the main reason for China’s export growth One of the reasons for the slowdown, but not the only reason, also includes factors such as the slowdown in global economic growth and the adjustment of the layout of the international textile supply chain. For example, some emerging countries are currently experiencing outstanding growth in the proportion of international trade. In addition, as the external situation changes, As well as the expansion of the scale of the industry itself, the development of China’s textile industry has already entered a cycle of slowdown in total growth and in-depth adjustment and transformation. The current development speed is within the range of reasonable expectations. This is the inevitable result of the growth and structural adjustment of the textile industry. In the future, directly The key areas to participate in international market competition will gradually shift from clothing to fabrics, fibers and other upstream products in the industrial chain.
About policy demands
As to whether the current cotton policy complies with the laws of marketization, 78.4% of companies believe that It does not comply with the laws of marketization. 54.4% of enterprises believe that cotton quota allocation is not reasonable. Despite this, Zhu Beina believes that cotton regulation policies have been advancing in recent years, but there is still room for optimization. Enterprises are also welcome to submit operable proposals. opinions and suggestions.
As for the rotation issue of cotton reserves that the industry is very concerned about, 81.4% of companies believe that cotton reserves should be rotated in 2019, and 57.0% of companies believe that the amount of cotton reserves should be 2 million. Ton. If they want to rotate, 42.7% of companies hope to rotate into domestic cotton, and 39% of companies hope to rotate into domestic cotton and imported cotton at the same time. Which kind of cotton is included depends on the market positioning of the company’s products, and the timing and angle of rotation are different. Compared with foreign cotton such as American cotton, Brazilian cotton, and Indian cotton, 73.7% of companies believe that Xinjiang cotton has more advantages, which shows that textile companies have greater hope based on domestic cotton. Regarding the target price reform in Xinjiang, 49.4% of companies hope that the policy can be maintained stable, and 46.8% of companies hope that the policy can be reformed in the direction of high quality and preferential subsidies. In short, companies hope that the policy can be both maintained and continuously optimized.
About enterprise transformation and upgrading
96% of companies believe that electricity bills are too high, and 91.5% of companies say that the fundamental reason for the rapid rise in costs is the rapid rise in labor costs. Enterprises are eager to transform and upgrade. In this process, 64.7% of the main difficulties faced by enterprises are the lack of talents and technology, and the biggest difficulty for 33.3% of enterprises is the lack of funds. Regarding the technological progress of the industry, unattended night shifts is a technological breakthrough that the industry hopes to achieve as soon as possible. 42.7% of companies believe that unattended night shifts can be promoted and applied in the textile industry, but development will be relatively slow in the past five years. 36.9% The company believes that it can be quickly promoted within five years. Although 95.9% of companies believe that the industry has overcapacity, 57.4% of companies believe that this overcapacity has advantages and disadvantages. Some companies believe that without excess, there will be no competition and the industry will not progress.
</p
