Since the beginning of this year, we have been talking about topics such as “the peak season is not booming and the off-season is early” for this year’s textile market. We always feel that getting through it is the “endless” peak season and receiving soft orders.
But have you ever thought that the textile market may reach a peak this year, and the situation will only get worse in the future.
Polyester filament market is not satisfactory
The overall polyester filament market in 2019 is in a volatile and downward trend. In addition, during the traditional “Golden Nine” peak season, the downstream weaving operating rate has shown a downward trend, and the industry has a serious lack of confidence in the market outlook.
October has almost reached the middle of October, but the downstream centralized stocking is still missing… After the National Day holiday, the overall inventory of the industry has gradually increased, production and sales have not increased, and the pressure on inventory accumulation has been great. . The current polyester filament factory inventory is 10-20 days old, and DTY inventory is relatively high.
With the end of foreign trade Christmas orders and Double Eleven and Double Twelve orders, weaving factory inventories may still have room for growth in the fourth quarter.
Overcapacity, too many monks and too little food
Since environmental protection pressure increased in 2017, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have set off a wave of moving looms from the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang to the inland areas of the central and western regions. It is understood that it was previously reported that nearly 120,000 water-jet looms have been moved out of Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, and the transferred water-jet loom production capacity has exceeded 200,000 units.
At the same time, in newly put into production areas, companies not only transferred old looms to suitable low-cost production bases, but also invested in new looms to expand production scale in the new bases . This current situation in the industry will result in a concentrated explosion of production capacity in the downstream textile market in the second half of this year, and there may be more in the future.
In other words, the current operating situation of the textile industry is not only not good compared to previous years, but more importantly, it is heading towards a worse future.
Weaving and printing and dyeing factories are under increasing operating pressure Increase
Anyone who is in the textile industry, whenever they hear that someone has a factory, their first reaction is that this company must be “very profitable and very rich”. In fact, this was true in the past two years, but today is different from the past. Today’s weaving factories and printing and dyeing factories are producing “with tears in their eyes” every day.
According to the monitoring of sample weaving enterprises, the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze area has been as high as more than 40 days. The lack of terminal trade orders has made weaving factories “miserable”. Fortunately, the price of raw materials has dropped, which has diluted part of the production costs, giving weaving factories the possibility of price reduction and promotion.
However, the raw materials are not “Bodhisattva-hearted”, nor can they always “provide help in times of need.”
Since August, PTA has been fluctuating at a low level. Currently, raw material prices are already at historically low levels, and it is only a matter of time before it enters the upward channel. At that time, for weaving factories with high inventories, suspending production may be the best choice.
As an “oligopoly” in the textile industry, the number of dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will only decrease but not increase due to the impact of environmental protection and other policies.
Logically speaking, it should be in an absolute position of “supply exceeds demand” and firmly grasp the right to say prices. However, this year’s situation has made the owners of major dyeing factories a little confused. , I don’t dare to increase the dyeing fee at all, and I have to be cautious in quoting the price even if the dye exceeds the cost.
Compared with previous years, this is undoubtedly the weakest off-season
Compared with previous years, this is undoubtedly the weakest off-season.
You can think about it rationally: the economic environment is weakening, factory operating rates are regularly declining, PTA prices are at historically low levels, etc. It seems that the future will only be crueler than the present.
But will the peak season come again? The answer is yes, but the dark night before dawn is very difficult. Many companies and factories may not persist until that day, and few are left. Some people continue to divide the original “cake”.
In any case, September and the National Day holiday have come to an end, and the “Silver Ten” is following up. Can orders in the downstream market improve further? Is the market taking advantage of the momentum? Textile people should have certain expectations! </p
