The domestic ethylene glycol market continues to decline today. The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” are coming to an end ahead of schedule. The ethylene glycol market is booming in September, and downstream demand will enter in October. During the off-season, ethylene glycol factories are undergoing maintenance one after another. The overall traders are watching and wailing as to where the ethylene glycol market will go next.
The domestic ethylene glycol market has fallen sharply in recent days. After the opening at the beginning of the week, the futures price plummeted. The spot price continued to fall to around 4850-4860 after falling below 5,000 yuan/ton last week. , after rebounding on Tuesday, the market continued to decline unabated. During this period, two devices in Saudi Arabia stopped operating for some reason, which caused the market to rebound slightly. However, the pessimism of spot traders did not diminish, and the market was still shrouded in gloom. On Thursday, the oversold rebound of the main ethylene glycol futures contract led to a recovery in spot prices, with the spot market pulling back from lows and closing at 4,600-4,610 yuan/ton.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From the supply side , Domestic ethylene glycol plants have begun maintenance one after another in October. Recently, the operating load of petroleum-to-ethylene glycol is around 56.07%, the operating rate of methanol-to-ethylene glycol is around 69.5%, the operating rate of coal-to-ethylene glycol is around 58.61%, and the operating rate of ethylene glycol is around 58.61%. The comprehensive operating rate of alcohol was 58.15%, which was significantly lower than last week. In addition, in terms of inventory, East China’s ethylene glycol inventory totaled 520,000 tons on October 17, a decrease of 12,000 tons from October 10, of which 316,000 tons were in Zhangjiagang (the average daily shipment from a certain warehouse is around 9,803 tons); the daily average at the terminal Shipments dropped from more than 10,000 tons to around 9,000, indicating a slower pace of domestic destocking compared with last month.
From the perspective of demand, the peak season of the chemical industry “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is coming to an end ahead of schedule. The peak season is not prosperous. As the main downstream product of ethylene glycol, the demand for polyester filament has gradually weakened, and downstream factories are the main products. Preferential promotions are used to increase production and sales, but the overall trend is weak. Due to the recent fluctuations in the ethylene glycol market, the production of bottle tablet manufacturers continues to be on the edge of profit and loss. As of now, the average production profit of manufacturers in the second half of the year is only -2.89 yuan/ton. The production of bottle tablet manufacturers has begun to turn to losses. In order to reduce losses, some manufacturers have begun to reduce production or have plans to reduce production. Downstream destocking continues to weaken, causing factory inventories to rise and overall market expectations to be weak.
From a macro perspective, on October 17, according to the Voice of China, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce Gao Feng revealed at a regular press conference today that the new period that recently ended in Washington During the round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States, the two sides had candid and constructive discussions on economic and trade issues of common concern and made substantial progress. When answering questions related to China-US economic and trade consultations, spokesperson Gao Feng said that currently, China and the United States are intensifying consultations and striving to implement the text of the agreement. Gao Feng stressed that China has always believed that cooperation is the best choice for both countries and the only correct choice to solve problems. The phased results achieved by both sides are conducive to eliminating uncertainty and restoring market confidence, which is of great significance for stabilizing the global economic situation. . The easing of the Sino-US trade war is undoubtedly important good news for the ethylene glycol market.
In short, after the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” small peak season, the overall chemical industry is in a downward trend. However, in the past two days, the overall commodity atmosphere has been poor and the decline has been smaller. Under the conditions of various favorable factors In the long term, the downward trend of futures prices is difficult to change, but the probability of stabilization in the short term increases.
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