Polyester manufacturers know in their hearts that the price raised by speculation with the help of sudden information will eventually return to the market equilibrium price. Once the incident is over, the market will return to its original form.
Polyester manufacturers also know that in addition to the currency itself, the most important factor that determines price is the relationship between market supply and demand. One of the key factors is that the repair of the supply and demand relationship in the polyester market has led to market changes that are slowly fermenting. During the industry trough period, the phased and structural excess of production capacity has returned!
The polyester yarn market is going through a trough: the price has reached a new low in three years, and total profits have dropped significantly
In 2019, the market price of polyester filament fluctuated and fell. Among them, represented by polyester filament POY150D/48F, the average annual price of polyester filament market was 8176.77 yuan/ton, which was a new low in the past three years, compared with 9560.9 yuan in 2018. The average price of RMB/ton fell by 14.48%, down 2.37% from the average price of RMB 8,374.81/ton in 2017; the mainstream price high of the polyester filament market in 2019 appeared in early April at RMB 9,015/ton, which was lower than the 2018 market price. The price peak fell by 27%;
The mainstream market price trough in 2019 appeared below 6,800 yuan/ton in early November, setting a new market low since July 3, 2016. The decline in market conditions and market prices during the year was mainly due to a sharp drop in costs, a decline in the growth rate of end-use apparel, and overcapacity in the textile sector. In 2019, the average price of polyester raw material PTA was 5,930.55 yuan/ton, down 8.15% from the average price in 2018; in 2019, the average price of raw material ethylene glycol was 4,717.69 yuan/ton, down 34.8% from the average price in 2018.
Specifically, as of November 12, the price of polyester filament POY150D/48F in 2019 has reached a trough of 6,800 yuan/ton, a new low since July 3, 2016; The price trough of polyester filament FDY150D/96F in 2019 was 6,900 yuan/ton, a new low since February 28, 2016; the price trough of polyester filament DTY150D/48F in 2019 was 8,500 yuan/ton, a record low since July 18, 2016. A new low since.
The total profit of the polyester industry in the first half of the year decreased by 37.7% year-on-year
National Data from the Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June, the main business revenue of the chemical fiber industry was 428.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; the total profit was 13.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%; the industry’s loss reached 26.52%, a year-on-year increase of 4.6 percentage points , the losses of loss-making enterprises increased significantly by 71.5%; the operating income profit margin was 3.11%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.22 percentage points.
“When polyester and polyester prosper, the chemical fiber industry prospers.”
It is no exaggeration to use this sentence to describe the pivotal position of the polyester and polyester industry in the entire chemical fiber industry. The output of polyester polyester accounts for about 80% of my country’s total chemical fiber output every year. It contributes the largest profit to the entire industry and is a veritable “big deal”. However, looking at different industries, the total profit of the polyester industry was 5.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.7%. With supply increasing and factory efficiency greatly reduced, if the market deteriorates again in the future, the pressure will still be considerable.
Phaseical and structural excess of production capacity: polyester filament production capacity breaks through the 40 million tons milestone
While industry profits are expanding, polyester production capacity is further expanding. In 2019, the new polyester filament production capacity totaled 2.54 million tons, a decrease of 560,000 tons compared with the 3.1 million tons added in 2018, and the growth rate decreased by 2.1 percentage points, of which 2.39 million tons were melt direct-spun polyester filament, and chip-spun polyester filament was 2.39 million tons. With 150,000 tons of silk, China’s total production capacity reached 40.51 million tons per year, successfully breaking through the 40 million tons mark.
During the year, new polyester filament production projects were still mainly concentrated in large polyester factories, and the polyester filament varieties put into production were mainly POY, including 1.2 million tons of Tongkun Group, Xinfengming Group 560,000 tons, Hengyi (Jiaxing Yipeng) 250,000 tons, Fujian Jingwei 200,000 tons, Lixin Chemical Fiber 80,000 tons, etc. Among them, Hengke’s 100,000 tons and Shandong Weifang Huabao’s 100,000 tons of polyester filament will be completed and put into production before the end of the year. Hengyi (Yikai Haining)’s new polyester filament production capacity of 250,000 tons is expected to be postponed to 2020.
In the next 2020, the supply of China’s polyester filament market will continue to expand. According to research data, China’s polyester filament market will continue to expand in 2020. A total of 3.29 million tons of filament yarn production capacity is planned, including 2.6 million tons of melt direct spinning and 690,000 tons of chip spinning (including industrial yarn). The production capacity growth rate is expected to be 8.1%, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the production capacity growth rate in 2019.
Judging from the current forecasted production time, the production time in 2020 is evenly distributed. The production in the first half of the year and the second half of the year is relatively scattered. From the perspective of the new production capacity structure, it is still mainly concentrated on production capacity. In recent years, for large factories at the forefront of scale, polyester filament yarn and even the entire polyester industry have gradually formed a development situation of extending the industrial chain upwards. Seizing the opportunity of refining and chemical processing and supporting the expansion of downstream polyester has become one of the main trends in the current production of polyester filament yarn industry. Therefore, In 2020, the new polyester filament production capacity will still be concentrated in the top five companies in terms of production capacity, such as Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi and Shenghong.
From the perspective of supporting products for new production capacity, differentiated products with relatively high added value such as ultra-fine denier, intelligent, and full matte dominate. At the same time, due to the increase in texture in recent years, Equipment has surged, and the new polyester filament specifications and varieties are still mainly POY.
China’s polyester market in 2020Schedule for new wire production capacity to be put into production
At the same time, the Sino-US trade situation has changed since this year, the financial market has fluctuated violently, and the textile industry closely related to it has And exchange rate fluctuations also affect the nerves of market participants.
After the high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States failed to produce clear optimistic results, the financial market performance has weakened again recently, and the futures of textile industry-related products, which are mainly exported, fell. Although the current Maintenance of many domestic PTA units has been started. However, due to the overly complex external market situation and sharp expansion of production capacity, PTA’s decline has expanded. As a raw material, PTA has become weak. At the same time, it is suffering from financial risks brought by the external environment and pressure from the terminal industry. It’s even worse on the long journey.
In the short term, the negative impact of the textile industry on the polyester industry chain will be transmitted from bottom to top. Although polyester factories are operating at a high level, the end-use weaving market is not prosperous, and the inventory of gray fabrics is high, resulting in polyester. Silk production and sales are poor and inventories are rising. These contradictions may be concentrated in the later period to the end of the year. All in all, the current structural, regional and phased surplus situation in the polyester market industry is still severe, and the weak downstream demand has not improved. The situation faced by polyester factories is still difficult to say optimistic. </p
