In order to fully understand the cotton production situation in 2019, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System launched a nationwide cotton production survey from October 15 to 30. The samples involved 15 provinces (autonomous regions), 50 cotton-growing counties, 1,895 Contact households for designated cotton planting information. The survey results show that China’s average cotton yield in 2019 was 121.9 kg/mu, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%[1], and a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the August survey results. Based on the actual sowing area surveyed by the monitoring system of 47.943 million acres, the total output is expected to be 5.843 million acres. tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, and a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the August forecast. The specific situation is as follows:
This year, the rainfall during the cotton growth period in the main provinces of the Yellow River Basin is less than normal, so picking and purchasing Increased rainfall during the period caused the deterioration of summer peaches. The overall cotton yield was lower than the previous year, and the grade and quality were affected to a certain extent. The average yield in the region is expected to be 73.3 kg/mu, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, and the total output is expected to be 507,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, both of which are 4 percentage points lower than the August forecast.
This year’s continued drought and insufficient effective rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin have had an adverse impact on cotton growth. In particular, Anhui Province has experienced a severe drought that occurs once in 30-50 years, which has a greater impact on cotton growth. Although the cotton clothing score is acceptable, the cotton seeds are shriveled and the quality is worse than in previous years. Overall, the yields per unit area in most provinces in the Yangtze River Basin have shown a downward trend. Coupled with the reduction in planting area, the total output has declined. The average cotton yield in the region is expected to be 62.1 kg/mu, down 4.4% year-on-year, and the total output is expected to be 305,000 tons, down 11.3% year-on-year, both 1.1 percentage points higher than the August forecast.
The average cotton yield in the northwest inland area is 140.3 kg/mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the August survey results; the total output is expected to be 5.007 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% , a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the August forecast. In some areas of Xinjiang, the effective accumulated temperature during the seedling stage of cotton is insufficient, cotton grows slowly, and excessive use of fertilizers promotes cotton growth. As a result, the maturity of top peaches is insufficient, the weight of cotton bolls is insufficient, and the yield is reduced. At the same time, the planting area in Xinjiang increased compared with the same period last year, which offset part of this. The impact of declining yields. The average yield in Xinjiang in 2019 is expected to be 140.9 kg/mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and the total output is expected to be 4.974 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, both 5.5 percentage points lower than the August forecast.
[1] The year-on-year changes in the average cotton yield and output in 2019 in this report are calculated based on the data from the “China Cotton Yield Survey Report” released by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in November 2018. .
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