Since October, the price of raw material caprolactam has fluctuated downwards. The supply of slices itself is relatively abundant, but downstream demand has been slow to follow up. The slice market has continued to decline, and prices have continued to reach new lows during the year.
As of Wednesday’s close, the mainstream shipping focus valuation of East China’s liquid caprolactam market refers to 10,600-10,800 yuan/ton acceptance, which is a month-on-month decrease. 10.83%. The mainstream shipment focus of conventional spun glossy chips from polymerization factories is 11,700-11,900 yuan/ton cash withdrawal, a month-on-month decrease of 8.88%. Slice prices hit a new low this year. Zhuochuang’s analysis mainly has the following reasons: First, after the National Day holiday, the market for raw material caprolactam declined weakly, and the price of caprolactam continued to decline, which did not effectively support the cost of slicing; in terms of the supply of slicing itself, individual factories in the market had new prices in the early days of the National Day holiday. Increase production capacity, and the chip stocks of most aggregation factories on the site have not been well digested, and the overall supply of slices is relatively large; finally, from the demand side, downstream customers’ mood to take orders has always been sluggish, and the mood for large-volume stocking is difficult to see. The demand for goods is basically maintained, and aggregation Factory inventory began to accumulate. Taken together, due to insufficient support from the cost side of slicing and the growing contradiction between supply and demand on the market, the slicing market is in poor condition, and slicing prices have fluctuated and declined.
As can be seen from the figure, since the second half of 2019, slice prices have maintained regular fluctuations. Among them, the common characteristics of the falling market are as follows: the slice market shows a situation where supply exceeds demand, and manufacturers are particularly struggling to ship goods. They have reduced prices to sell goods, causing the center of gravity of slice transactions to shift downward; the regular characteristics of the rising market are mainly as follows: Features: As the price of slices continues to be low in the early stage, and some manufacturers oversold, the pressure on slice inventory has eased slightly. The cost pressure on slice manufacturers is high and many manufacturers are losing money. Therefore, some manufacturers have taken the initiative to increase their offers, and the prices are low on the market. have been reduced one after another, and prices have generally risen. Judging from this rise and fall pattern, coupled with the analysis of the current slicing market, this change in slicing prices may be in line with this pattern.
Taken together, the current price of the raw material caprolactam is at a low level, and some caprolactam factories on the market have reduced their operating load rates based on their own inventories. The price of caprolactam may be expected to stop falling. Although there is a push-up sentiment in polymerization factories, the current downstream prices As customers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing goods and demand is still sluggish, it is expected that slice prices will remain low and stable in November.
Looking at the market outlook, it is expected that during the Spring Festival holiday, there may be a wave of inventory sentiment in the downstream market, which will boost the market in a timely manner. In addition, the current slicing price has been at a low level for a long time, and slicing profits are hovering near the cost line, and aggregation factories have raised prices. Emotions may emerge. To sum up, Zhuochuang predicts that the next wave of market rise may occur in late December. However, as the contradiction between supply and demand on the market is still prominent, the increase is not expected to be large.
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