Affected by low processing fees and cost-end support, PTA will rebound in the near future. However, considering the overall oversupply pattern, it is expected that the time and magnitude of PTA’s rebound will be limited.
Affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, PTA futures rebounded last week. Technically, after the main 2001 contract price of PTA futures fell below the strong support of 4,950 yuan/ton, it did not effectively fall below the 4,650 yuan/ton support in the past three and a half years. The recent price may test the 4,950 yuan/ton pressure level.
Processing fees are at a low level
This year Domestic textile demand performed poorly. As market uncertainty is higher than in previous years, most end-use textile companies prepare goods based on orders and are not willing to actively stock up. Since terminals are not active in purchasing raw materials, the demand for chemical fiber has been greatly affected, which has made PTA consumption weak. According to statistics, as of November 21, the average annual operating load of domestic PTAs was 83.73%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points from last year’s average. As the supply of PTA manufacturers remains high, and the units of Sichuan Shengda, Xinfengming, Hengli Phase 4, and Zhongtai Chemical have been put into operation, the market supply pressure continues to increase. Under the influence of oversupply, PTA futures prices continue to decline.
However, as the price of PTA continues to decline, the operating conditions of PTA manufacturers are also deteriorating. At present, the processing fee of the domestic PTA industry has fallen to a low of 500 yuan/ton, and the industry average loss is 60 yuan/ton. In this case, the production enthusiasm of PTA companies has declined.
The role of cost support appears
With the current low level of PTA processing fees, the cost is The supporting role of PTA will gradually emerge. As long as the center of cost does not shift downward, PTA prices will be relatively resistant to falling, with little room for downside. From a cost perspective, as OPEC will hold a ministerial meeting in early December, the market expects OPEC to introduce a more aggressive production reduction policy. In addition, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States continues to decline, inventory growth is less than expected, and heating oil consumption enters the peak season. Crude oil prices will remain relatively strong.
Considering the low processing fees and relatively stable costs, PTA’s disk price may rebound to repair the current process. Low processing fees.
Accelerating the integration of private refining and chemical industry
1. Hainan Yisheng PTA Phase II and other projects were signed in Yangpu, Hainan
On November 18, Hainan Yisheng PTA Phase II project, C5C9 project, 600,000 tons of methanol Carbon 4 comprehensive utilization project, Shaanxi Ligong Mechanical and Electrical 10,000-ton air-forming dust-free paper project, Shaanxi Tianyuan 15,000-ton intelligent remanufacturing project, Yangpu Science and Technology Innovation Park cooperative development project, and Yangpu Power Grid Development Strategic Cooperation Agreement.
Among them, the Hainan Yisheng PTA Phase II project is a key node project in the petrochemical industry, with a total investment of 4.5 billion yuan and an output value of approximately 16 billion yuan. The C5 and C9 project is an ethylene downstream industry project with a total investment of 1.216 billion yuan to build 80,000 tons of C5 separation and 60,000 tons of C9 separation equipment. The 600,000-ton methanol carbon four comprehensive utilization project is an ethylene downstream industry project with a total investment of 606 million yuan to build 450,000-ton methanol-to-propylene, 150,000-ton gas separation unit and other devices.
2. Guangxi Tongkun Petrochemical Qinzhou will build 2.8 million tons/year paraxylene and 600,000 tons/year benzene Vinyl and other devices!
Recently, Guangxi Tongkun Petrochemical’s 2.8 million tons/year aromatics project social stability risk analysis public participation announcement and 600,000 tons/year crude cracked gas to styrene project environmental impact assessment information First announcement. The main contents of the two announcements are as follows:
Guangxi Tongkun Petrochemical 2.8 million tons/year aromatics Project
The main construction of the project: 3 million tons/year residual oil hydrogenation unit (including fuel oil pretreatment), 5.2 million tons/year hydrocracking unit, 700,000 tons/year Annual liquefied gas separation unit, 4.2 million tons/year continuous reforming unit (including 1 million tons/year naphtha hydrogenation), 2.8 million tons/year aromatics combined unit, 250,000 cubic meters/hour PSA unit, 250,000 cubic meters/year Hourly coal hydrogen production unit, three sets of 100,000 tons/year sulfur recovery units and other main equipment, as well as supporting public and auxiliary facilities such as circulating water field, water purification station, 220kV main substation, raw material product tank area, etc. The project uses fuel oil, naphtha, etc. as raw materials. The target product of this project is 2.8 million tons/year of paraxylene, with by-products of benzene, light naphtha, liquefied gas and sulfur.
At present, the feasibility study report of this project has been completed, and the energy assessment, environmental assessment, and stability assessment reports are being prepared. After the above reports are completed, they will be submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission for approval.
Guangxi Tongkun Petrochemical 600,000 tons/year crude cracking gas to styrene project
Project Summary: The project plans to invest 2,098.04 million yuan and mainly build a 450,000 tons/year hydrocarbon-to-coarse cracking gas unit., 650,000 tons/year ethylbenzene unit and 600,000 tons/year styrene unit and other main devices, as well as public auxiliary facilities such as circulating water field and product tank area.
Market trading is relatively light
In the next 2-3 years, many large refining and chemical units will be put into operation in China, and PTA production capacity will enter a new period of rapid growth. At the same time, despite the overdraft demand for exports in the early stage, apparel exports are still not optimistic in the later stage. Judging from the market trading situation, the transactions of short fiber and bottle flakes are very sluggish. Considering that the winter clothing consumer stocking market has ended, it is inevitable that the demand for PTA will be weak.
Based on the above analysis, the continued decline in PTA prices has led to continuous compression of processing fees. At the same time, since the cost side is not likely to fall significantly, the PTA prices have further declined. The space is limited, and there may be a rebound in the near future caused by repair and processing fees. </p
