Introduction: In 2019, China’s fiber-grade PET market fluctuated and fell. As of November 25, the annual average price of fiber-grade PET market was 7,132 yuan/ton, which was 15.68% lower than last year’s average price of 8,458 yuan/ton. The highest price point was 8,150 yuan/ton on July 2, and the lowest price was 8,150 yuan/ton on July 2. 5850 yuan/ton on November 15.
In 2019, China’s fiber-grade PET market fluctuated and fell. In the first half of this year, the fiber-grade PET market operated steadily, and the market trend was basically in line with the characteristics of traditional low and peak seasons. Around the Lunar New Year, the market price of fiber-grade PET fluctuated within a narrow range. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the market price of fiber-grade PET rose moderately. By mid-to-early March, the market price rose to a high of 8,050 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. However, the overall trading atmosphere in the terminal fabric market this year is average. The downstream polyester fiber industry is cautious in following up the demand. The fiber-grade PET market demand has not improved significantly. In addition, the new production capacity was released in March. After the supply increased, the market price briefly consolidated. There is a mild downward trend. And in the traditional off-season market, the market price of fiber-grade PET has accelerated its decline. However, there are signs of easing in the trade between China and the United States, and the collective recovery of bulk commodities has boosted the raw material PTA to fluctuate higher, and the cost push effect has increased. In addition, fiber-grade PET factories have no inventory pressure, so factories actively follow the increase in raw materials, and the fiber-grade PET market has finally bottomed out. , and in early July, it reached a full-year high of 8,150 yuan/ton. However, weak downstream demand still constrains the market price trend. As the off-season market deepens, the fiber-grade PET market returned to the downward channel in August. As the traditional “Golden Nine” market approaches, downstream companies focus on purchasing raw materials, and the market decline slows down. However, during the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, the overall downstream demand is still flat, and the market price of fiber-grade PET maintains a volatile downward trend, and has repeatedly set new lows in the new year.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Looking at the domestic fiber-grade PET market trends in 2019, it can be basically divided into into three stages.
In the first stage (January to April), the supply and demand fundamentals of the fiber-grade PET market were relatively ideal, and the market fluctuated within a narrow range. Before the Spring Festival this year, the polyester market was at a historical low. Downstream chip spinning factories were actively “buying the dip”, and the inventory of fiber-grade PET factories dropped rapidly. As the Spring Festival approaches, market prices rise. After returning from the Spring Festival, market supply and demand were both weak, and market prices were relatively stalemate. However, fiber-grade PET factories resumed operations earlier than downstream. As industry inventories continued to accumulate, low-priced supplies increased on the market, and the market fluctuated and fell slightly. From March to April, although downstream demand showed no obvious signs of improvement, the market’s rigid demand support was acceptable under the traditional peak season demand, so the market price was at a high level during the year. However, at the end of March, market supply increased significantly, and after mid-April, downstream demand Demand has weakened significantly, so the fiber-grade PET market has had to start falling.
In the second stage (May-August), the fiber-grade PET market at this stage is in the stage of greatest volatility throughout the year. Market prices fluctuate greatly, which is closely related to the fluctuations in the upstream raw material market. May-June is the traditional off-season. The raw material PTA market fluctuates within a narrow range, with average cost support and increased inventory pressure on polyester factories. Affected by the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, terminal pessimism spreads, so the market price of fiber-grade PET The decline is not improving. However, at the end of May, the May settlement prices in the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets were on the high side. Fiber-grade PET factories were under greater pressure to lose money and had to actively reduce or suspend production operations. The market supply tightened and the decline slowed accordingly. From June to July, Sino-US trade negotiations successively released good news, and the domestic bulk market recovered. Therefore, the raw material PTA market rose strongly, which continued to push fiber-grade PET factories to raise their quotations, and the market price rose accordingly. However, after all, the fiber-grade PET market is in the traditional off-season market, and downstream demand is weak. As the previously shut down equipment gradually resumes production, market supply increases. Coupled with the impact of Sino-US trade friction and the fall of international crude oil, the raw material PTA fluctuates and falls, and the cost The support is weak, so the fiber-grade PET market returns to the downward channel. As the “Golden Nine” approaches, the downstream mentality of buying the bottom is strong, and the market production and sales volume increase. After the decline gradually slows down, it rises slightly, and fiber-grade PET finally enters a narrow range of shock trend.
In the third stage (September to November), the fiber-grade PET market is “not prosperous in the peak season”, and the market price breaks down. In September, the international crude oil surged, boosting the upstream raw material market to rise slightly. In addition, the downstream actively purchased raw materials, and the market production and sales increased. Fiber-grade PET factories actively followed the increase in raw materials, and the market transaction price fluctuated and pushed up. After the return of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets continue to operate strongly, with strong cost push. In addition, fiber-grade PET factories have no inventory pressure, and many companies are actively following the increase in raw materials. With the arrival of the downstream procurement cycle, the fiber-grade PET market has increased production and sales. The center of gravity of market transactions is firm and upward. However, at the end of September and the beginning of October, international crude oil continued to fall, and the raw material PTA fluctuated within a narrow range. The cost-promoting effect was average. In addition, the downstream was still in the traditional peak consumption season, but the inventory pressure of terminal weaving factories did not decrease. The weak demand was transmitted from bottom to top, and the fiber grade PET factory quotations are mostly stable, but the downstream inquiry atmosphere continues to be light, and the discount range for actual orders on the market continues to be relaxed. Affected by this, the fiber-grade PET market has begun to decline. In mid-October, the market price of melt-spun polyester fiber continued to decline, and the profits of the chip-spun polyester fiber industry were greatly compressed. Therefore, the chip-spun polyester fiber industryFiber factories are mostly based on quantitative production and are not very enthusiastic about production. As a result, the production and sales of the fiber-grade PET market have not continued to increase, so the fiber-grade PET market has accelerated its decline. </p
