Since November, the polyester filament market has fluctuated and declined. As early as September, during the traditional peak demand season, some FDY models have begun to suffer losses. Although the current demand has shown a shrinking trend, and texturing and loom operations have continued to decline, most companies believe that it is too early to reduce burdens on a large scale. In order to alleviate supply pressure, some companies have taken the lead in starting burden reduction mode. As prices continue to decline, supply pressure It is highlighted that enterprise maintenance and burden reduction are gradually put on the agenda.
The above table shows the installations of domestic polyester filament enterprises from November to the Spring Festival. The production reduction and maintenance plan involves a reduction of more than 2.8 million tons of production capacity, accounting for 9.1% of the total production capacity. Equipment maintenance is mostly concentrated after mid-December. The current polyester filament industry operation rate remains at 91.84%, while the operation rate in the same period last year was around 85.6% , a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Recently, the downstream texturing and weaving operations have been declining, and the supply pressure of polyester filament has become prominent.
Most industry players said that the profits of the polyester industry in the first half of the year were concentrated in the upstream PX-PTA field. From the end of the second quarter to the third quarter, industry profits gradually shifted downwards. POY companies have jointly supported Prices were concentrated on clearing inventory and quoting prices, and profit levels continued to increase. However, during the same period, FDY and DTY profits were meager, and texturing companies were struggling.
POY’s profits have been shrinking since the fourth quarter, and the profits of texturing companies have improved, but overall operations are still difficult, and many have said that they will expand the scale of production cuts in December. It is reported that Texturing factories in Cixi, Ningbo and other places have gradually stopped.
During 2017-2018, the texturing and weaving operations before the Spring Festival gradually dropped to the freezing point, with an average operation of 10-20%, while the polyester filament operation during the same period remained at 70-80% , even if the maintenance equipment before the Spring Festival this year goes on as scheduled, according to the current statistical data, the start-up of polyester filament before the Spring Festival is expected to drop to around 80%, which is much higher than the downstream start-up level, so the supply pressure is self-evident.
In 2020, the new polyester production capacity is expected to be 6.2 million tons, an increase of 10.56%, and the growth rate is 4.57% higher than that of 2019. Polyester filament is expected to add 3.6 million tons of new production capacity, and supply pressure will become increasingly prominent next year. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyester filament is also relatively acute. Although raw materials have rebounded slightly, the cost-end support is limited, and market expectations remain cautious. However, the multiple good news that have been released recently may give us a glimpse of some signs of next year’s market.
01. RCEP will be signed next year, and China’s textile exports may reverse the decline
On the evening of November 4, leaders of the 10 ASEAN countries and 16 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India issued a joint statement after the meeting, stating that, except India, the 15 members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) China has concluded all text negotiations and virtually all market access negotiations and is preparing to sign the agreement next year.
As we all know, Southeast Asia is the fastest-growing emerging market in the textile industry. In recent years, both the import and export of textiles have been growing rapidly, and Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are also important textile exporters to China.
Today’s Southeast Asian textile industry has sufficient labor force advantages, but its infrastructure and technical level are weak. Once the agreement is signed, the complementary advantages of the textile industries of China and Southeast Asian countries will become more obvious. China’s textile raw materials, gray fabrics and fabrics can be transported to Vietnam, Malaysia and other places for processing at a lower cost, and the local labor force advantages can be used to make garments for export.
02. Environmental protection policies are gradually becoming more precise and eliminating “one size fits all”
Starting from September this year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment launched a three-month special rectification operation, focusing on correcting the indiscriminate “one size fits all” behavior in some local ecological and environmental protection work, and effectively safeguarding the environmental rights and interests of the people and the rights and interests of law-abiding enterprises. Legitimate rights and interests.
On November 25, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment forwarded a People’s Daily editorial that once again criticized the one-size-fits-all issue and called for refinement of environmental protection. Hebei Province took the lead in the country in establishing a positive list system for ecological and environmental supervision, giving priority to compliant enterprises to ensure their production and operation activities, and “no production suspension, no production restriction, no inspection, no interruption” during the emergency emission reduction period during heavy pollution weather. From this point of view, the country’s general trend is changing, and environmental protection policies are gradually becoming more precise, which is good news for our textile printing and dyeing industry.
03. 15 tax codes of textile and clothing products were excluded
China’s Ministry of Commerce recently stated that China and the United States have agreed to lift additional tariffs in phases over the past two weeks.
On November 7, local time in the United States, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced the product exclusion announcement for the fourth batch of US$200 billion in tariffs. A total of 36 products are involved, including 3 tax codes for textile and clothing products.
As ofRecently, the United States has issued five batches of 200 billion product exclusion lists, of which the first batch involves two textile and apparel product tax numbers, the second batch involves three textile and apparel product tax numbers, and the third batch involves seven textile and apparel product tax numbers. , the 4th batch involves 3 tax codes for textile and clothing products, and the 5th batch does not include textile and clothing products, totaling 15 tax codes for textile and clothing products.
In past surveys, textile bosses almost unanimously believed that the increase in tariffs caused by Sino-US trade friction was the key factor in this year’s textile foreign trade. The main reason why the market is “cold”.
Now that China and the United States have begun to gradually cancel the increased tariffs, many orders that cannot be fulfilled now may be implemented. The situation in which U.S. orders are “cut in half” as they are now will There will be a great deal of relief.
04. The e-commerce festival may be able to alleviate downstream clothing inventory
According to relevant data, during this year’s “Double Eleven” shopping festival, down jackets ranked at the top of the clothing order rankings on Tmall. Just three or four hours later, there were dozens or hundreds of models with sales exceeding 10,000. in. Major brands such as Bosideng, Semir, Peacebird, Smith Barney, and Antarctica have always been among the best in search volume and sales.
In addition to down jackets, other women’s clothing, such as woolen coats, skirt suits, etc., are also always on the best-selling list, which shows that people’s demand for winter clothing is still huge. After Double Eleven, as the temperature drops, people’s passionate consumption of winter clothing will once again ignite the subsequent “Double Eleven” and “New Year’s Day” e-commerce festivals.
Affected by various factors, the textile market is “cold” this year. However, there are already many signs that the situation in 2020 may be worse than this year. Some degree of improvement. All in all, the most difficult moment has passed. Textile enterprises must not lose confidence in the future and must prepare in advance and firmly believe that difficulties are always temporary. </p
