Market conditions
1 Domestic cotton prices are strong
Last week, as the time for reserve cotton rotation approached, domestic cotton spot prices were firm. The national cotton price B index, which represents the sales of standard-grade lint cotton in the mainland, was 13092, an increase of 42 yuan/ton, or 0.32%, from November 22; The two sides of China-US trade negotiations continue to maintain close communication, boosting the cotton market. The settlement price of the main cotton futures contract in Zhengzhou is 12,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton, or 0.43%, from November 22.
2 International cotton prices rose sharply
Last week, affected by the trade agreement between China and the United States International cotton prices have risen sharply amid renewed hopes for an agreement and impressive U.S. cotton export data. The International Cotton Index (M), which represents the average CIF price of imported cotton at China’s main port, is quoted at 76.04 cents/pound. The converted RMB price under a 1% tariff is 13,256 yuan/ton, an increase of 360 yuan/ton from November 22. 2.79%.
3 Polyester staple fiber fell steadily with some decline
Polyester last week The price of short fiber is stable, the atmosphere of actual order negotiation is not good, and manufacturers mainly focus on shipment. The price of polyester staple fiber closed at 6,680 yuan/ton last Friday, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.3% from November 22.
4 Viscose staple fiber ended its downward trend
Last week The rubber staple fiber market consolidated sideways, ending the sustained downward trend in the early period. Downstream demand has just begun to replenish goods, manufacturers’ quotations are relatively stable, and inventories have dropped slightly. Viscose staple fiber closed at 10,100 yuan/ton last Friday, the same as on November 22.
5 Cotton yarn prices fell steadily, while polyester yarn stabilized and rebounded
The domestic textile market was weak and stable last week, with cotton yarn price reductions and promotions, and polyester yarns rising slightly. The international demand for cotton yarn is flat, and the price of foreign yarn continues to fall; domestic yarn still has the advantage, and the price of conventional foreign yarn is 462 yuan/ton higher than that of domestic yarn; the domestic gray fabric market is stable, and the price of pure cotton cloth is stable.
Economic and industry performance
1 China Purchasing Manager in November Index 50.2%
In November 2019, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.2%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the critical level for 6 consecutive months. After that point, it returns to the expansion zone again. The main features of this month’s manufacturing PMI: First, both supply and demand have improved. The production index and new orders index were 52.6% and 51.3%, up 1.8 and 1.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month. Both are highs since the second half of the year, with the new orders index returning to the expansion range. Second, import and export have improved. Third, the prosperity of large, medium and small enterprises has generally recovered.
2 The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide fell by 2.9% from January to October
From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 5.0151 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and the decline was 0.8 percentage points larger than that from January to September.
From January to October, among the 41 major industrial industries, the total profits of 30 industries increased year-on-year, and the total profits of 11 industries decreased. The profit situation of the main industries is as follows: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 15.0%, special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 12.0%, non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 10.9%, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.0%, agricultural and sideline food processing Industry grew by 5.1%, oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 3.4%, general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 2.8%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 25.3%, automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 14.7%, and textile industry decreased by 6.4%.
3 The industrial added value of textile enterprises increased by 2.4% year-on-year from January to October
From January to October 2019, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of industrial added value in the chemical fiber industry has increased, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% from January to October, and the growth rate is 3.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the growth rate of industrial added value in the industrial textiles and clothing industry has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5% from January to October. The month-on-month growth rate was 7.2% and 1.0% respectively, and the growth rate was 1.2 and 3.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The industrial added value of the home textile industry fell 1.0% year-on-year from January to October, and the growth rate was 5.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to October, chemical fiber output was 49.57 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%; cloth output was 40 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%; clothing output was 20.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%.
4 In October 2019, my country’s cotton exports increased by 1.57% year-on-year
According to the latest statistics, in October 2019, my country imported 22 million meters of cotton cloth, an increase of 8.9% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.96%; exported 676 million meters of cotton cloth, an increase of 2.59% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 1.57%; the net export volume was 654 million meters, an increase of 2.40% month-on-month and 2.24% year-on-year.
From January to October 2019, my country imported a total of 235 million meters of cotton cloth, a year-on-year decrease of 22.09%; the cumulative exports were 6.609 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%. In 2019/20, my country imported a total of 42 million meters of cotton cloth, a year-on-year decrease of 21.15%; the country exported a total of 1.336 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.32%.
Industry policies and trends
1 The first week of reserve cotton arrival The maximum bidding price is 13,319 yuan/ton
The rotation of cotton reserves in 2019 will be launched on December 2, according to the announcement issued by the National Grain and Material Reserves Bureau and the Ministry of Finance ( 2019 No. 3), the maximum price for the central reserve cotton inbound bidding is 13,319 yuan/ton (standard grade) in the first week (December 2-December 6) 3128 price).
2 Xinjiang’s first cotton subsidy in 2019 is gradually implemented
Recently, the 2019 cotton subsidy was issued, including the Eighth Agricultural Division of Xinjiang The 136th Regiment Company notified the first subsidy of 1.09 yuan/kg, which will be available at the end of the month; the 149th Regiment of the Eighth Division will receive the first subsidy of 1.09 yuan/kg, and it is limited to two days to complete; the 126th Regiment of the Seventh Division will receive the first subsidy of 1.09 yuan on November 28 The first subsidy for the 184th Regiment of the Tenth Division is 0.95 yuan, which will be paid out in about 10 days.
On October 17, the Corps issued the “2019 Corps Cotton Target Price Reform Work Implementation Plan” to further deepen the Corps’ cotton target price reform. The “Implementation Plan” clarifies the scope of sales and stipulates that seed cotton can be sold freely within the XPCC, that is, growers can sell seed cotton to any announced processing enterprise within the XPCC, and all of them can be included in the scope of subsidies. Adhere to the separation of price and supplement, high quality and good price. The sales price of seed cotton is completely determined by the market, and the relevant publicity system is strictly implemented to ensure that the payment of subsidies is open, fair and just. The time node and process for the payment of subsidy funds are clarified.
3 Occupations such as spinners and weavers are included in the 100 shortage occupations
According to the official website of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the People’s Republic of China, the China Employment Training Technical Guidance Center recently released the “Ranking of the 100 Shortage Occupations for National Recruitment in the Third Quarter of 2019”. The ranking comes from human resources market recruitment and job search data reported by public employment service agencies in 102 fixed-point monitoring cities across the country. According to the weighted values of the number of gaps in the “Number of Recruitment Needs” and “Number of Job Seekers” and the number of cities to be filled in, they are ranked from large to small.
At present, my country’s cotton textile industry generally faces problems such as high labor costs, difficulty in recruiting workers, and aging employees. Cotton textile companies employ relatively more spinners and weavers. occupation, the ranking is in line with the current employment situation in the cotton textile industry. It is hoped that cotton textile enterprises will strengthen the training of young workers’ skills, especially the cultivation of highly skilled talents, to inject new momentum into the transformation, upgrading and intelligent production of enterprises.
Oil prices face Black Friday amid doubts about production cuts
International crude oil futures prices fluctuated slightly and rose early last week. One of the reasons is that optimistic expectations of Sino-US trade negotiations improved market sentiment. China and the United States discussed resolving each other’s core concerns, reached consensus on resolving relevant issues, and agreed to maintain communication on the remaining matters in the first phase of the agreement negotiations. The market was encouraged by the positive news about the Sino-US trade dispute. Secondly, the news that OPEC is expected to further extend its production reduction agreement until mid-2020 has given strong support to the rise in oil prices. Sources revealed that in order to support oil prices, OPEC and its allies are expected to extend the current production reduction agreement until mid-2020 next month. But then oil prices suffered a black Friday WTI crude oil decline that expanded to 5%. Analysts said this was mainly due to the fact that OPEC officials’ speeches affected the market’s production cut expectations, and the lack of liquidity during Thanksgiving amplified the market. In addition, EIA data released last week showed that U.S. crude oil production reached a new high, reaching 12.9 million barrels per day, giving another powerful blow to the oil market bulls.
The market is waiting for the RMB to fluctuate within a narrow range in Sino-US trade
The phone call between the leaders of the high-level negotiations between China and the United States last week slightly boosted market sentiment. On Tuesday, the yuan rebounded, and the central parity rate also rose slightly by 53 points, ending four consecutive declines. Subsequently, the RMB depreciated slightly, with the offshore exchange rate closing at 7.03235 on Friday. The recent news has been mixed, and the market has been relatively calm. It is expected that the RMB will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations. The market is generally optimistic about the implementation of the first phase agreement between China and the United States. However, due to the lack of substantial benefits, the RMB will weaken slightly in the short term; however, from a medium-term perspective, whether it is the negotiation prospects or the direction of monetary policy, the exchange rate is still more likely to rise. big. </p
