First there is the traditional peak season, and then there is equipment maintenance, and even the consultations have achieved phased results. With the support of the improving external environment, the last few months will undoubtedly become a key node in reversing the decline throughout the year.
However, reality is always cruel. PTA fell from a stage high of 5,668 yuan/ton on July 3 to a low of 4,648 yuan/ton. Although the upward trend was weak and the downward trend was cautious, time finally handed over the “steering wheel” to the short sellers.
On November 21, stimulated by the reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories to welcome the surge in the crude oil market and the overlay of preliminary equipment maintenance, PTA finally ushered in a rare band increase. Although the PTA load gap caused by short-term maintenance can be It will bring about a rebound in the market, but at this stage, we think there is no point in going long.
The entire industry is expanding upstream, but terminal demand has been sluggish. Under this situation, relying on the unpredictable crude oil market and the maintenance of individual devices for a week or two will not have much impact on the market expectations. Impact. Now entering the end of 2019, PTA prices continue to hit new lows this year. The reason why the center of gravity of PTA prices has shifted downward is very obvious. The main reason is that a large number of new PTA devices, especially the new PX devices supporting large refining and chemical products, will continue to be put into operation during the year.
PTA’s new production equipment is started and planned to be put into production, and the supply pattern has changed from tight balance to surplus
As of now, domestic PTA production capacity has increased to 51.705 million tons. The three major enterprises of Yisheng, Hengli and Fuhaichuang account for more than 52% of the existing production capacity. The domestic PTA industry has completed the reversal of dominance from state-owned enterprises to private enterprises, and the market has reversed from short supply to oversupply. It is said that 4.8 million tons of new equipment (Hengli 2.5 million tons, Zhongtai 1.2 million tons, Xinfengming 1.1 million tons) will be put into operation by the end of 2019. By then, the domestic PTA production capacity will reach 56.505 million tons by the end of 2019, and the production capacity will return to excess. The situation is just around the corner.
1. Sichuan Energy Investment Chemical PTA plant was put into operation at the end of May 2019
On May 22, Sichuan Energy Investment Chemical New Materials PTA project was officially put into operation. This major event will lay a solid foundation for our city to build a 100 billion oil, gas and chemical industry cluster. This project is located in Nanchong Economic Development Zone. It is the second large-scale PTA project installation in the western region, with a total investment of approximately 4.5 billion yuan and an area of approximately 960 acres. The annual PTA output can reach 1 million tons and the annual output value is approximately 6 billion yuan.
2. Xinfengming Dushan Energy PTA Phase I 2.2 million tons project was successfully put into operation
At 5:08 on October 30, Dushan Energy PTA The first phase of the device was officially put into operation, and Xinfengming Group has taken a new step in the integration of the industrial chain! Dushan Energy is Xinfengming’s first project extending upstream. It started from scratch and overcame various difficulties. After preliminary equipment installation , stand-alone debugging, linkage debugging and other stages, finally, the first phase of the project is ready to go today!
3. Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons PTA project is planned to be commissioned
On August 23, 2019, the construction of the 1.2 million tons PTA project of Xinjiang Korla Zhongtai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was progressing smoothly. The construction of the project is accelerating. It is expected to conduct unit linkage test on September 30 and around December 20. Carry out feeding test run.
4. Hengli Petrochemical plans to put a 2.5 million-ton PTA unit into production at the end of 2019
Hengli Petrochemical plans to put a 2.5-million-ton PTA unit into production in 2019 It will be put on the market by the end of this year, and another 2.5 million-ton PTA device is planned to be put on the market in 2020.
5. Rongsheng Petrochemical: Announcement on the investment and construction of a PTA project with an annual output of 6 million tons
On September 18, 2019, Rongsheng Petrochemical targeted The planned construction of a PTA project with an annual output of 6 million tons has been announced. In order to further enhance the company’s complete industrial chain advantages and enhance market competitiveness, expand the market scale of the company’s products, and reduce the unit cost of the products, Zhejiang, a subsidiary of Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Yisheng New Materials Co., Ltd. plans to invest in the construction of a “6 million tons of PTA project per year”. The project will be implemented in two phases, with an estimated total investment of 6.731 billion yuan.
6. The total investment is nearly 60 billion! Jiutai Group will build a new 2.4 million tons/year PTA device in Inner Mongolia
According to the official website of Jiutai Group on September 6, Inner Mongolia Jiutai New Materials Co., Ltd. plans to build Inner Mongolia Jiutai in Tuoketuo Industrial Park, Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region New Materials Co., Ltd.’s ethylene glycol supporting polyester new material industry technology upgrade demonstration project. It can be found from the announcement that the total investment of the project is nearly 60 billion, and new equipment such as 2.4 million tons/year PTA and 600,000 tons/year polystyrene will be built.
The launch of polyester production capacity cannot conceal the risk of PTA overcapacity, and PTA’s long decline may be far from over! From the perspective of profit distribution in the polyester industry, PTA processing fees have dropped to less than 500 yuan/ton, and PX processing in some devices has entered the loss range and is close to the lowest in history. It cannot be ruled out that under pessimistic expectations, PX and PTA processing fees A new low.
On the other hand, with the low prices of PTA, MEG and other products, polyester production capacity also has plans to expand production capacity in 2020. According to statistics, the new polyester production capacity in 2020 is expected to reach 5.15 million tons, corresponding to an increase of about 4.3 million tons of PTA demand, which is far less than the 15.3 million tons of PTA production capacity planned to be put into production in 2020.
Falling costs and processing fees will make it difficult to reverse the center of gravity of PTA prices. Under a large production expansion cycle, PTA’s long decline may be far from over! </p
