In November, the overall decline in the upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain was dominated by decline. The main influencing factors are that in the traditional off-season of the chemical fiber industry, the terminal textile market is relatively weak, and the scarcity of orders has led to high terminal gray fabric inventories. At the same time, the operating rate of downstream polyester has dropped slightly, and new devices for polyester raw materials PX, PTA and MEG have been put into production, resulting in polyester. The supply pressure of the ester dual raw materials PTA and MEG is high, which has caused a sharp decline in prices. Although the tight spot liquidity of PTA and the destocking of MEG ports at the end of the month have obviously benefited the market, the weakness of downstream polyester leaves little room for a rebound in the raw material market. Therefore, the overall chemical fiber industry chain trend maintains a wide fluctuation pattern.
The chemical fiber industry chain rose and fell in November Situation
▲The rise and fall rankings of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in November by/jinlianchuang
As shown in the figure above, in terms of month-on-month range, PX (CFR Taiwan) fell by 0.55% month-on-month, PTA fell by 4.38% month-on-month, MEG fell by 4.24% month-on-month, polyester chips fell by 5.52% month-on-month, and polyester bottle chips fell by 4.28 month-on-month. %, polyester filament fell 4.63% month-on-month, and polyester short fiber fell 4.80% month-on-month.
Market analysis of the main products of the chemical fiber chain
PX
The Asian PX market is consolidating at a low level. As of the end of November, Asian PX is estimated to be US$776/ton FOB South Korea and US$797/ton CFR Taiwan/China, up US$2/ton and US$3 respectively from the end of last month. /Ton.
International crude oil prices were relatively strong and volatile in early November, the raw material MX was strong, and cost support was good. Hengyi Petrochemical’s new PX unit was officially put into production on November 3, and all its PX was supplied to the domestic South China PTA factory. However, Xinfengming’s new PTA unit ran normally after it was put into operation. The increase in supply was basically offset by the increase in demand, and PX supply and demand were both booming. Since the ACP has not been reached in November, the market lacks direction. Merchants are worried that the supply of PX will be too high in the future, and the buying enthusiasm is average. However, there are currently three sets of PX devices in the country being overhauled, and the supply is tighter than in the previous period. In addition, PX profits are losing, and merchants continue to The intention to make profits is not strong, the market is in a stalemate between long and short, and the price center of gravity has not changed much. In the second half of the year, merchants tend to participate in industry conferences, and the overall trading atmosphere is dull. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 4 million tons/year PX unit began trial operation at the end of November. However, it is expected to be officially put into production in December and will not have a big impact on the market at present.
PTA
In November, the domestic PTA spot market fell weakly , the overall transaction situation is average. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil market strengthened in a narrow range, and PX prices rose slightly, which strengthened the support for the PTA market from the cost side; however, as PTA pre-maintenance equipment gradually resumed, and the demand for downstream polyester was weak, the transaction performance was light, and the PTA market fluctuated within a narrow range most of the time. host. In the middle of the year, as the crude oil market fell, the PTA market weakened. At the same time, the increase in supply further suppressed market prices. In addition, the haze of overcapacity still shrouded the market, and the overall negotiation situation was deadlocked. Subsequently, the commodity market improved and some PTA factory equipment was shut down as planned, which helped the PTA market stabilize. At the end of the month, the crude oil market strengthened in a narrow range and PX prices rebounded. The cost side provided stable support to the PTA market. At the same time, quasi-spot liquidity was tight, the futures-to-cash basis was firm, and the PTA market strengthened in a narrow range; Parking devices have been restored one after another, and the increase in PTA supply has led to a decline in the market. Some merchants have reduced their basis, and shipments have been slightly positive.
MEG
In November, ” The W”-shaped trend is generally an upward trend after establishing a bottom. After ethylene glycol stabilized at the bottom this month, it made a big move upward at the end of the month, breaking through the 4,700 yuan/ton mark. When the market opened at the beginning of the month, ethylene glycol was under negotiation around 4,600 yuan/ton. But the good times did not last long. By the 6th of this month, the main short sellers increased their positions in the main futures contract. The EG2001 contract fell below the early effective support level, and the spot price fell rapidly with the futures to below 4,500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, due to the logical support of the destocking of main port inventories, ethylene glycol bottomed out and stabilized and began to rebound. By the end of this month, it once exceeded 4,700 yuan/ton and was negotiated around 4,740 yuan/ton.
Polyester filament yarn
The polyester filament yarn market performed weakly in November . Affected by the favorable macroeconomic situation at the beginning of the month, the polyester raw material PTA also rebounded slightly. With the downstream demand for filament yarns slightly improving, individual manufacturers’ prices have also tentatively risen, and negotiated discounts have been slightly reduced, but the positive support is short-lived. Entering the middle period, due to the limited downstream acceptance capacity, the upward momentum was insufficient, and the center of gravity of the actual transaction price was basically maintained. The release of trade relations in the second half of the year was good, international crude oil prices rose, and polyester filament companies were under greater pressure to suffer losses. Some companies raised their quotations within a narrow range; however, downstream orders were not good, and purchasing enthusiasm was temporarily weak, especially after the increase, the supply performance was wait-and-see. The price center of gravity is relatively stable. Near the end of the month, downstream demand is still difficult to boost, and factory shipment pressure has increased. Some factories have begun to reduce production to protect prices. However, due to losses, the focus of negotiations has not fluctuated much.
Forecast and Outlook
The polyester industry chain market in December may Continue the weak pattern. The industry chain is still dominated by the raw material PTA market. New equipment for raw materials PX and PTA has been put into production, which has brought negative effects to the industrial chain market. However, during the traditional off-season, the demand for downstream polyester has weakened, terminal inventories are high, market transactions are weak, and the overall supply and demand pattern may be weak.
PX
It is expected that the long-short game in the market will become more intense in December Intense, the commissioning of new PX equipment has enabled businesses toEveryone is cautious, supply will inevitably increase, and terminal demand is average near the end of the year, so it is difficult to see a big market. However, PX is already in a state of significant losses, and some companies may reduce production and load. It is expected that the PX market will mainly fluctuate in a wide range in December, and it is easy to It is difficult to rise when it falls.
PTA
The PTA market is expected to be weak in December. The PX market is still weak, and the cost-end support is weak; currently, PTA factory maintenance equipment is gradually restored and Xinfengming’s new equipment is put into production, supply is under pressure, while downstream polyester production has not changed much, and the overall fundamentals have not seen good support. However, as PTA processing fees remain at a low level and there is little room for further compression, the PTA market may be weak and volatile in the short term, and will remain weak in the medium and long term.
MEG
The trend of domestic ethylene glycol in December remains to be seen According to research, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of ethylene glycol will put great pressure on prices in December, and Hengli Petrochemical’s 900,000 tons/year device is about to start construction. In terms of demand, ethylene glycol has now entered the off-season, and the demand for downstream polyester will gradually weaken. However, the destocking of main ports is still continuing, which is also the main reason for supporting prices. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, ethylene glycol is in a contradictory position. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Sino-US trade war, most chemical commodities such as crude oil are mostly bear markets. However, the later trend of ethylene glycol is cautiously bullish. In the long run, The trend is still not optimistic. However, from a historical perspective, the space below ethylene glycol is limited, and coal- or oil-based ethylene glycol plants have been in a state of substantial losses, which is also a factor stimulating upward price increases. Adjustments are expected to be made in December based on market conditions.
Polyester fiber
It is expected that the polyester fiber market will fluctuate in December. Weak run. Looking at raw materials, raw material PTA next month will be affected by the weakening of PX and increased supply. The PTA market may be weak and volatile in the short term, and will still be weak in the medium and long term. From the supply side, most factories are currently on the verge of losing money, so the number of factories that have adopted production cuts to protect prices continues to increase, and there are no plans to restart production cuts in the early stages, so supply pressure has eased slightly. From the demand side, there is no positive boost to the polyester market. Downstream orders continue to decrease, and the domestic sales market also declines. This makes the basic mentality of downstream weaving enterprises not good, and some downstream weaving manufacturers may go on holiday in advance. Affected by this, the polyester fiber market is expected to fluctuate and run weakly in December.
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