FromJanuarytoOctober2019,mycountry’sPXimportvolumewas12.474milliontons,adecreaseof545,000tons(-4.2)comparedwiththesameperiodlastyear%),itisestimatedthattheannualimportvolumewillbearound14.6milliontons.Since2007,mycountry’sannualPXimportvolumehasdeclinedforthefirsttimecomparedwiththepreviousyear.
2019 is the first year for the integrated refining and chemical production in China. Hengli Petrochemical has 4.5 million tons/ Year, Liaoyang Petrochemical 300,000 tons/year (capacity expansion), Hongrun Petrochemical 600,000 tons/year, Hainan Refining and Chemical 1 million tons/year, a total of 6.4 million tons/year new PX production capacity, Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 million tons/year PX There is a high probability that the material will be released around mid-December. If Zhejiang Petrochemical PX is successfully put into production, China’s PX production capacity will increase by 8.4 million tons/year (+60.3%) this year compared with last year. In addition, after the launch of Hengyi Brunei’s new 1.5 million tons/year PX production capacity, the PX produced will be directly shipped to the country, which is equivalent to increasing the domestic PX supply in disguise. Taken together, my country’s new PX production capacity in 2019 actually increased by 8.4 million tons/year (domestic) + 1.5 million tons/year (Brunei). The domestic PX supply side exploded, squeezing the market share of imported PX supplies from Japan and South Korea. , the quantity of PX imported into my country began to decline.
Zhongyu Information statistics from 2019 to 2022 include 13 new, renovated and expanded PX projects in China, involving an additional 32.8 million tons of PX production capacity per year, and another 6 planned projects totaling 700 There is no timetable for the production of 10,000 tons/year PX. my country’s PX will continue to expand its capacity crazily from 2020 to 2021. PX supply exceeds demand. PX is likely to repeat the old path of PTA’s crazy capacity expansion from 2012 to 2014. Zhongyu Information predicts that my country’s PX imports will drop to 1 million tons in 2021-2022. Within 2%, as in recent years, PTA’s external dependence is less than 2%. In the future, factories with industrial chain supporting equipment will have obvious cost competitiveness. Currently, the main importing countries of PX in my country are South Korea and Japan. Zhongyu Information predicts that a large number of old and small Japanese and Korean PX factories will be eliminated by the market, just like the crazy PTA in mainland China. Capacity expansion has forced some old equipment in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to shut down permanently.
PX ACP negotiations were concluded only three times in 2019, the lowest number in the past four years. Under the premise of poor macro environment and PX’s crazy expansion, PX buying The sellers have no intention of accepting the high price offer of PX, while the PX sellers who are losing money in production unilaterally insist on the higher offer. The price differences between the buyer and the seller are large, and the possibility of reaching a negotiation is getting lower and lower. Zhongyu Information believes that in the next three years, domestic PX will expand wildly and supply will exceed demand. The significance of the existence of PX ACP will become increasingly diluted, and the market may eliminate this pricing mechanism in the future.
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