The polyester chip market in 2019 is still weaker than in 2018. As of the end of November, the average price of the domestic semi-optical fiber-grade PET market was 7,118.39 yuan/ton, down 16.65% from 8,539.94 yuan/ton in the same period last year. At present, the mainstream transaction price of semi-gloss slices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 6,000 yuan/ton, and the state of “no rise or fall” will continue in the short term.
Figure 1 Price trend of polyester chips (semi-gloss) in 2018-2019
As shown in Figure 1, the polyester chip market showed a volatile downward trend in 2019. This year’s price reached a high point around mid-July. However, it began to fall at a lightning speed during the traditional “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” period. Until early November, the polyester chip market began to maintain a stalemate due to the lack of demand-side support. At the same time, the dual raw materials also started a narrow range oscillation mode due to lack of strong support.
During this period, the slice production companies were quite divided. Due to the different problems they faced in terms of inventory, shipment, and funding, low-priced supply sources frequently appeared in the market. Everyone in the industry was worried about whether the market would continue to decline. Explore.
Figure 2 Polyester chip prices, polymerization costs and cash flow trends
As shown in the figure, the factors affecting the market trend of polyester chips The key factor is the cost side. As raw material-oriented products, the prices of PTA and MEG play a decisive role in the polyester chips market. The first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2 million tons PX device produced qualified products on December 8 (not yet in normal production). In addition, PTA Hengli and Zhongtai PTA will be put into production soon. However, the current polyester production is still stable, and the support for raw materials is acceptable. In addition, the current PTA processing fee has dropped to less than 500 yuan/ton, so PTA will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term;
Ethylene glycol is relatively optimistic, and its absolute inventory value is biased. At a low level, and terminal operations are occasionally closed due to weather conditions, the sustainability of inventory accumulation in the later period is not strong.
Although the fundamentals of the raw material market have improved, market expectations are cautious. It is difficult for downstream companies to have the willingness to purchase large quantities on the basis of insufficient orders. Even if the short-term raw materials are relatively strong, The ester chip market has been boosted, but the durability and increase are extremely limited, so the market has a strong mentality of maintaining stability.
The editor believes that for the polyester chip market, the probability of short-term decline is small. The main benefits come from factors such as low corporate inventory and cash flow losses for many consecutive days. In the later period, downstream procurement will still be based on demand, and production and sales will be better on the day when raw materials are strong. In addition, due to favorable support such as inventory and downstream construction, the industry believes that the promotion efforts of slicing companies this month will be less than expected; in the second half of this month, if slicing factories, downstream With the announcement of the factory’s Spring Festival holiday and the release of expectations for raw material production, the support for polyester raw materials will gradually weaken, and the focus of raw material transactions may shift downward. At the same time, with weak downstream support, polyester chips will fall accordingly. </p
