In September 2019, my country’s textile and apparel trade volume was US$26.56 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% (the same below). Among them, the export value was US$24.52 billion, a decrease of 7.6%; the import value was US$2.04 billion, a decrease of 10.6%; the trade surplus for the month was US$22.48 billion, a decrease of 7.3%. From January to September 2019, my country’s textile and apparel trade volume was US$220.53 billion, a decrease of 3.2%. Among them, the export value was US$202 billion, a decrease of 2.8%; the import value was US$18.52 billion, a decrease of 6.8%; the cumulative trade surplus was US$183.48 billion, a decrease of 2.4%. From January to September 2019, the import and export of textiles and clothing showed the following characteristics.
Exports declined in the first three quarters, and the impact of the U.S. tariffs is apparent
In the first three quarters of 2019, in the face of Sino-US economic and trade frictions and frequent uncertainties, the overall performance of China’s textile and apparel exports was acceptable, and there was no significant decline. However, exports The downward trend is gradually becoming clear, and negative export growth in 2019 is inevitable.
In September 2019, the impact of the comprehensive increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on my country’s textile and clothing products began to appear. The situation of alternating monthly export growth and decline in the first eight months was broken. Whether measured in RMB or US dollars, exports in September continued the downward trend in August.
While exports are blocked, the downward trend in textile and clothing imports in 2019 is more prominent: it has declined for five consecutive months from May to September, and there have been consecutive double-digit declines from August to September. In the first three quarters of 2019, the import volume of textiles and clothing fell by 6.8%, which was faster than exports.
List 4 has officially imposed additional tariffs, and exports to the United States have declined across the board
Effective from September 1, 2019, the United States Tariffs have officially begun to be imposed on my country’s $300 billion worth of goods (List 4). This part of the list includes most clothing and home textiles. In September, my country’s textile and apparel exports to the United States fell across the board, with clothing and home textiles falling by 21.8% and 8.5% respectively. Overall exports to the United States fell by 20.1%, dragging down 4 percentage points on the decline in global exports. The United States also became my country’s exports that month. Key markets with the largest declines.
Excluding 3 products from the list will hardly provide effective support for exports
As of the end of October 2019, the United States has Products worth 200 billion US dollars (list 3) involving yarns and fabrics with a total of 12 tax codes are excluded. According to U.S. statistics, from January to September 2019, the U.S. imported products with these 12 tax codes from China totaling 188 million U.S. dollars, accounting for only 0.5% of the total U.S. textile and apparel imports from China during the same period. It did not contribute substantially to the recovery of export growth. The role of sex.
The proportion of general trade methods has increased, and private enterprises’ exports to the United States have maintained growth
In the first three quarters of 2019, my country’s The cumulative export share of general trade in textiles and clothing rose to 81%, further enhancing the leading role of general trade in exports. General trade exports only fell by 1%, which was better than processing trade (down 14.8%), border small-amount trade (down 14%) and other forms during the same period.
Private enterprises, as the backbone, provide strong support for exports. From January to September 2019, the textile and clothing exports of private enterprises only dropped slightly by 0.8%, and the number of export entrepreneurs maintained a growth of 7%. Among them, exports to the United States increased slightly by 0.1%, and the number of export entrepreneurs increased by 3%, far exceeding that of state-owned enterprises in the same period. and the performance of foreign-funded enterprises.
Exports to traditional markets have all declined, and the market has accelerated towards diversification
EU: Exports continue to decline span>
The EU market remains sluggish. In September 2019, my country’s textile and apparel exports to the EU continued to decline, with the decline expanding to 16%, which had a dragging effect of 2.8 percentage points on the overall decline in textile and apparel exports. From January to September 2019, my country’s textile and apparel exports to the EU totaled US$36.12 billion, a decrease of 5.6%, the largest decline among key markets. Among them, the export volume of clothing fell by 7.3%, the total export volume of knitted and woven clothing of major categories fell by 4.6%, and the export unit price fell by 3.9%.
The UK’s “Brexit” process has been delayed repeatedly, and the uncertainty of my country’s textile and apparel exports to the UK has increased. In the first three quarters of 2019, my country’s textile and apparel exports to the UK fell by 8.5%.
According to EU customs statistics, from January to August 2019, the EU’s global imports of textiles and clothing were US$91.97 billion, a decrease of 1.2%, and imports from China were US$29.3 billion, a decrease of 1.6%. %, and imports from ASEAN and Bangladesh increased by 3% and 3.9% respectively. The share of Chinese products in the EU market was 31.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the same period in 2018.
United States: Increased tariffs on bulk commodities began, and exports fell by 20% in September
Since September 1, 2019 Starting from 2019, my country’s exports of clothing and home textile products began to face a 15% tariff, and exports to the United States fell in September – the export volume was US$4.07 billion, a drop of 20%. Among them, the total export volume of yarn fabrics dropped by nearly 30%, the export volume of needle and woven garments dropped by 19%, and the average export price dropped by 5.5%.
From January to September 2019, my country’s cumulative exports of clothing and home textile products to the United States were US$35.4 billion, a decrease of 4.4%, of which textile exports decreased by 6.1% and clothing exports decreased by 3.8%. %, and the export volume of home textiles increased by 4.3%.
2019 1-In September, the cumulative value of textiles and clothing imported by the United States from the world was US$94.45 billion, an increase of 3.1%. Among them, imports from China were US$31.8 billion, down 2.6%; imports from ASEAN, India, and Bangladesh increased by 9.4%, 5.6%, and 9.1% respectively. Chinese products accounted for 33.7% of the U.S. market, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the same period in 2018.
ASEAN: Exports fell again
After maintaining growth for 3 months, in September 2019, my country’s textile products Clothing exports to ASEAN fell again, down 9.6% that month, of which textile and clothing exports fell by 8.2% and 13.7% respectively. From January to September 2019, my country’s total textile and apparel exports to ASEAN were US$27.85 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the exports of yarn and fabrics for major commodities increased by 3% and 1.7% respectively, while the exports of needle-woven garments decreased. 8%.
Japan: The market shows slight signs of stabilization
The Japanese market has recently shown signs of stabilization and warming. In September 2019, although my country’s textile and apparel exports to Japan declined year-on-year, they increased month-on-month. Exports to Japan that month were US$2.16 billion, setting a new monthly export volume within the year. From January to September 2019, my country’s textile and apparel exports to Japan fell by 5.2%, performing slightly better than the EU in traditional markets. Among them, the export volume of textiles and clothing decreased by 2% and 6% respectively, the export volume of knitted clothing of major categories of commodities decreased by 7.4%, and the average export price increased by 1.8%.
According to Japanese customs statistics, from January to September 2019, Japan’s textile and clothing imports were US$29 billion, a slight increase of 0.2%, of which imports from China were US$16.05 billion, a decrease of 4.3% %; imports from ASEAN increased by 7%. The market share of Chinese products dropped to 55.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the same period in 2018.
Countries along the “One Belt and One Road”: cumulative exports are basically the same, and their market status is gradually improving
In terms of exports to traditional markets While being hindered, countries along the “Belt and Road” have become the main driving force for my country’s textile and apparel exports. In September 2019, my country’s textile and apparel exports to the world declined, but exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” achieved a 4% growth. In the first three quarters of 2019, my country’s textile and apparel exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” totaled US$70.67 billion, a slight decrease of only 0.1%, which was basically the same as the same period last year. Among them, Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia are the main growth regions. The steady and orderly development of bilateral trade has further increased the proportion of countries along the “Belt and Road” in my country’s textile and apparel exports to 35%, and their market position has gradually increased.
Exports of textiles and clothing both declined, while chemical fiber products maintained slight growth
In September 2019, my country’s textile and clothing Clothing exports both fell, with declines of 7.7% and 7.5% respectively. Among them, the export value of major categories of commodities such as yarn, fabrics, finished products, knitted garments, and home textiles all declined. From January to September 2019, my country’s cumulative exports of textiles and clothing decreased by 0.06% and 4.9% respectively. Divided by raw materials, exports of cotton, silk and wool products (including yarn, fabrics and clothing) all fell, with silk products in particular falling by 50%; only chemical fiber products maintained a weak growth of 0.4%.
Zhejiang and Fujian’s exports maintain growth, and Hunan’s exports grow rapidly
In September 2019, my country’s top five textile and apparel companies The export volume of all exporting provinces and cities dropped, with the exception of Fujian, where the decline exceeded or was close to 10%. From January to September 2019, among the top five provinces and cities, only Zhejiang and Fujian maintained growth in export volume, with increases of 0.5% and 4.7% respectively. The central provinces of Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui have achieved rapid growth, especially Hunan Province, whose export volume has grown by more than 50% for seven consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate is as high as 76%.
Textile imports continue to decline significantly
In September 2019, my country’s textile and clothing imports continued to decline. Among them, textile imports fell by 20%, marking the fifth month of double-digit decline and the second month of decline of more than 20%; clothing imports recovered, achieving a 7.6% growth.
From January to September 2019, my country’s cumulative textile imports dropped by 13.1%, of which the imports of yarn, fabrics and finished products dropped by 15.2%, 14.3% and 6.7% respectively; clothing The cumulative import volume increased by 7.2%, of which the import volume and price of needle and woven clothing increased by 6% and 4.1% respectively.
Cotton imports continue to shrink significantly, and domestic and foreign cotton prices are approaching
In September 2019, my country’s cotton imports Continued sharp decline, import volume hit a new low this year. In September, only 83,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 38.5% and 9.8% respectively. From January to September 2019, my country imported a total of 1.519 million tons of cotton, an increase of 36.2%; the average import price was US$1,970/ton, a decrease of 2.2%. Among them, 309,000 tons were imported from the United States, a decrease of 34.9%. The United States ranked behind Brazil and Australia.
The monthly report of the China Cotton Association shows that in September 2019, most of the country’s cotton was in its peak period. Affected by the adverse weather in the early period, cotton development in Xinjiang was sluggish, and the progress of picking and selling was slower than in 2018. Due to the low cotton price, the enthusiasm for picking and selling was not high. Processing companies are cautious in entering the market, the overall purchase volume is not large, and the opening scale price has fallen sharply. The total national cotton output in 2019 is expected to be 5.9057 million tons, a decrease of 185,000 tons from 2018 and a year-on-year decrease of 3.35%.
The trade friction between China and the United States has eased. At the same time, the textile industry has entered the traditional peak season, and corporate demand has relatively improved. Although domestic cotton prices continue to fall, the decline has become smaller. At the end of September 2019, the national cotton commercial inventory declined, and the year-on-year gap narrowed. At the end of September, China’s cotton price index (CC Index3128B) was 12,608 yuan/ton, down 377 yuan per ton from the end of August, and the decline narrowed by 705 yuan; the monthly average price was 12,962 yuan/ton, down 572 yuan/ton from August, and year-on-year. It fell by 3351 yuan/ton. International cotton prices rose slightly, and domestic and foreign cotton spot prices tended to be close to each other at the end of September. The monthly average price index of China’s imported cotton (FC Index M) was 71.25 cents/pound, down 0.79 cents/pound from August; at the end of the month it was 72.31 cents/pound, 1.13 cents/pound higher than the end of August, 1% Under the tariff, it is equivalent to RMB 12,561/ton, which is only lower than the domestic cotton spot price of RMB 47/ton in the same period, which is RMB 848/ton lower than that at the end of August.
At the end of September, the national cotton commercial inventory fell, and the year-on-year gap narrowed. At the end of September, China’s cotton price index (CC Index3128B) was 12,608 yuan/ton, down 377 yuan per ton from the end of August, and the decline narrowed by 705 yuan; the monthly average price was 12,962 yuan/ton, down 572 yuan/ton from August, and year-on-year. It fell by 3351 yuan/ton. International cotton prices rose slightly, and domestic and foreign cotton spot prices tended to be close to each other at the end of September. The monthly average price index of China’s imported cotton (FC Index M) was 71.25 cents/pound, down 0.79 cents/pound from August; at the end of the month it was 72.31 cents/pound, 1.13 cents/pound higher than the end of August, 1% Under the tariff, it is equivalent to RMB 12,561/ton, which is only lower than the domestic cotton spot price of RMB 47/ton in the same period, which is RMB 848/ton lower than that at the end of August.
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