In 2019, China’s ethylene glycol port inventory generally showed a peak-like operation. After reaching its highest point at the end of April this year, the inventory in East China’s main port has been on a downward trend. East China ports have been experiencing constant turmoil recently, with record lows recently. How is the inventory in December? When will the predicted accumulation of inventory arrive?
In 2019, China’s ethylene glycol port inventory generally showed a peak-like operation, and the average level was much higher than the same period last year. At the beginning of the year, affected by the traditional off-season downstream, the main port inventory continued to accumulate. After the Spring Festival, although the downstream polyester Construction has resumed, but the pressure on the supply side of ethylene glycol has become more prominent. The inventory of ethylene glycol has continued the trend of accumulation before the holidays. The inventory level has reached a new record high, reaching 1.239 million tons at the end of April. The storage capacity of the main port has reached its limit, and some cargoes Due to the delay in arrival at the port due to saturated inventory, the trend of ethylene glycol has also entered the weakest state in history. Against this background, domestic and foreign ethylene glycol plants have passively reduced production. Finally, this high inventory situation has gradually eased from July, 8 In September, we entered a destocking cycle. In September, under the influence of factors such as the replenishment of downstream factories and the continued low start-up of ethylene glycol plants, the inventory in the main port dropped sharply to normal or even low levels. Until December, downstream polyester production capacity continued to expand. Although ethylene glycol production companies rebounded, they were still at a low level. Coupled with the reduction in actual arrivals due to the closure of the Yangtze River and other reasons, ethylene glycol inventory in East China hit a record low.
The latest data from Jin Lianchuang shows that the total inventory of ethylene glycol in East China on December 5 340,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from November 28, including 174,000 tons in Zhangjiagang (the average daily shipment of a certain warehouse is about 10,555 tons); 45,000 tons in Taicang; 40,000 tons in Ningbo; 36,000 tons in Jiangyin, and Yangzhou. Mountain 45,000 tons. With the new production capacity in the fourth quarter, the commissioning of Inner Mongolia Rongxin and Hengli, and the delay in the arrival of goods at the Yangtze River port, the start-up of ethylene glycol companies in the later period will be easy to increase and difficult to decrease. Downstream polyester factories will undergo intensive maintenance at the end of the year, and the overall operating rate of the polyester industry will be Decline, texturing and weaving enterprises continue to decline, demand gradually shrinks, polyester production and sales are under pressure, coupled with generally pessimistic market expectations at the end of the year, the overall demand is insufficient, and the original inventory accumulation in November may be postponed to mid-December.
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